Miami (FL) will beat Florida St.

BigDofBA · 02-26-12, 05:07 PM

I don't think there is a sharp side here. It's a total coinflip. A ton of people like Miami.

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:08 PM

I honestly don't remember the last time an unranked home fave has beaten a rated opponent. Play used to be money in the bank; I swear it's about 0 for the past month.

Patrickz0rs · 02-26-12, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

I don't think there is a sharp side here. It's a total coinflip. A ton of people like Miami.

I consider any ranked team getting points a square play since the pubic loves to see better ranked teams as dogs.

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

I consider any ranked team getting points a square play since the pubic loves to see better ranked teams as dogs.

Seriously Pat look it up -- the play (unranked home fave) hasn't cashed in an eternity.

southpaw74 · 02-26-12, 05:14 PM

Miami hasn't beaten Florida state in at least their last 5 meetings...all close games though. Why do they win today? I haven't made a play

Patrickz0rs · 02-26-12, 05:18 PM

Miami FL Reggie Johnson has just been ruled ineligible.

tdforte22 · 02-26-12, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

Miami FL Reggie Johnson has just been ruled ineligible.

So your changing your vote to the "squares" now?

BigDofBA · 02-26-12, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

I consider any ranked team getting points a square play since the pubic loves to see better ranked teams as dogs.

I don't think Miami is a bad play. I would definitely lean the home team in a Rivalry game but it's not a slam dunk.

Home favorites that are -1 or -2 never seem to cover. See USF today. I'm sure you thought Cincy was a square play and it cashed. Likewise, Minnesota was -1.5 at home and they didn't cover either. Do you see the trend here?

It's almost like the books made Minnesota and USF favorites to trick people into taking them. I've seen some weird things with lines this year that haven't followed historical trends.

If you look at this board there is a ton of Miami love. Don't be silly and think this board isn't the "public" either because it is.

Florida State can easily win this game. If you take Miami it's not a bad play but it's too much of a coin flip imo.

Patrickz0rs · 02-26-12, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by tdforte22

So your changing your vote to the "squares" now?

No. Miami (FL) gets the W here.

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

Miami FL Reggie Johnson has just been ruled ineligible.

Yet no line reaction? Interesting....

tdforte22 · 02-26-12, 05:22 PM

Miami isnt a force at home like it seems

Wins over Wake, Maryland, Clemson, and VT is not that impressive

Patrickz0rs · 02-26-12, 05:23 PM

With three regular season games left the Hurricanes need a sweep to give themselves a shot at the 'Big Dance.' A win today would match the Hurricanes for most ACC wins in a single season with eight.

tdforte22 · 02-26-12, 05:23 PM

to each their own though..

I seriously thought this line would have been FSU -3 or -4 at opening..

Patrickz0rs · 02-26-12, 05:25 PM

Last night I made a thread saying that Connecticut would be Syracuse - advising people to take +5 since it was a gift. Uconn had the last shot to win that game.

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

With three regular season games left the Hurricanes need a sweep to give themselves a shot at the 'Big Dance.' A win today would match the Hurricanes for most ACC wins in a single season with eight.

I've been betting teams in "must win" NCAA spots all week long, and they all happened to be short home faves against ranked opponents: Texas vs. Baylor on Monday, Northwestern vs. Michigan on Tuesday, West Virginia vs. Marquette, (stayed away from Minnesota today vs. Indiana), etc., etc.

Not one win. Hope for your sake the trend finally changes here. Like I said, this used to be an automatic/money in the bank play.

Big Bear · 02-26-12, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Seriously Pat look it up -- the play (unranked home fave) hasn't cashed in an eternity.

not very often. but when new mexico covered -6 vs unlv recently

Big Bear · 02-26-12, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Seriously Pat look it up -- the play (unranked home fave) hasn't cashed in an eternity.

new mexico vs unlv

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

not very often. but when new mexico covered -6 vs unlv recently

That's honestly the only one I can remember off the top of my head.

Big Bear · 02-26-12, 05:33 PM

sorry computer is malfunctioning

Big Bear · 02-26-12, 05:33 PM

yeah u are right though

BigDofBA · 02-26-12, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

Last night I made a thread saying that Connecticut would beat Syracuse

And Uconn lost. What's your point? Syracuse got up 19 and quit playing.

You also made a thread saying Eli Manning over 2.5 TDs in the Super Bowl was free money. That was a loser too.

Anything can happen. I would lean Miami but it seems like a coin flip to me. GL.

tdforte22 · 02-26-12, 05:36 PM

My best guess--

FSU by 6

I'm considering doubling my original bet

hmm

Patrickz0rs · 02-26-12, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

And Uconn lost. What's your point? Syracuse got up 19 and quit playing.

You also made a thread saying Eli Manning over 2.5 TDs in the Super Bowl was free money. That was a loser too.

Anything can happen. I would lean Miami but it seems like a coin flip to me. GL.

Did you forget the part where I said take the +5? Anyway, I'm not here to prove anything, I made 3 units on Uconn last night.

And I believe Northern Iowa beat Creighton as a small home favorite.

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Patrickz0rs

Did you forget the part where I said take the +5? Anyway, I'm not here to prove anything, I made 3 units on Uconn last night.

And I believe Northern Iowa beat Creighton as a small home favorite.

UNI wasn't favored. They were +1 according to my records.

tdforte22 · 02-26-12, 05:43 PM

68% of the action is on Miami

Looks like Miami is the SQUARE play

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by tdforte22

68% of the action is on Miami

Looks like Miami is the SQUARE play

No it's not. You have the % backwards.

tdforte22 · 02-26-12, 05:46 PM

Maybe thats just my book

Thats the top trending play on the list

No coincidences · 02-26-12, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by tdforte22

Maybe thats just my book

Thats the top trending play on the list

Which book?

The top trending play at your book is Miami?

BigDofBA · 02-26-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

UNI wasn't favored. They were +1 according to my records.

Yes. The short favorite lost that game. I had Northern Iowa.

I'm not saying short favorites never cover, but they seem to lose the majority of the time. Somone should look up yesterday's results.

Off of the top of my head teams that were -1 or -2 that lost

Old Dominion
Temple
Minnesota
USF
etc.

This happens every weekend. Teams like Temple are easy money and people jump all over them because they are only -2. Then they lose straight up.

Miami is at home in a must win game against their rival. I could see how the average person would love to take Miami in this spot.

It's not as easy of a play as you think. At least, I don't think it is.

And yes, I can see Miami winning here. I like the over more than anything.

tdforte22 · 02-26-12, 05:49 PM

creighton -1.5
NW -1.5

Both lost for me

hustlehard617 · 02-26-12, 05:51 PM

Thespread.com has 68% on FSU

BigDofBA · 02-26-12, 05:54 PM

It's 68% on FSU.

Despite the injury Miami is still -1. Miami does appear to be the play although I'm not that confident in it.

hustlehard617 · 02-26-12, 05:58 PM

line has moved its PK now

ToPHeR · 02-26-12, 05:59 PM