A little help: What am I doing wrong?

[humblebettor]

I have been lurking the forums for a little while now and gleaned some useful information from the threads. But I am having some problems in terms of picking a winner against the spread.

Before I make any bets I do literally hours of research. I check the team for any new injuries, look at the last time they played, check the boxscores from the games to see if 1 team had and unusally hot day from the field, look at rebound differential, I do my due dilegence.

Today I had...

Carolina -4

My thinking here was Carolina had beaten VA by 18 just 2 weeks ago and VA lost by 27 to Md not a week ago. Virginia beat a middle of the road at best VT team by 2 this past Tuesday. UNC is clearly the better team in this one and I though the 4 points was a fairly safe bet. Virginia has no answer for Zoeller or Henson on the boards and Barnes should be the best player on the floor easily in this 1.

BYU -20 and 1/2

Let's be honest about this 1, Portland is TERRIBLE. And they are even worse on the road. They had lost their last 5 games and failed to cover in 4 of them. I know 20 points is a lot, but a terrible team on the road that hasn't covered in 4 of their last 5 games? And on top of that, they lost to BYU by 19 at home 3 weeks ago.

Seton Hall -7.5

I had seen Rutgers play this year and they are a gritty team, they don't quit in games. But for the most part they are just not a good team. They had lost their last 6 games and failed to cover in 5 of those 6. And covered by 1 point against Syracuse. Seton Hall had beaten them at their place earlier in the month by 5 and had won 4 of their last 5 games and covered in all 5. Seton Hall shoots better from the field, from 3, rebounds are about even, but they are better defensively than Rutgers in pts allowed, FG % and about even on 3 pt %.



SO...


Carolina is a close game throughout, which shocked me, and Harrison Barnes misses the front end of a 1 and 1 that would have at least gotten my money back.


BYU is up 17 with about 15 or 16 minutes to go in the 2nd half and I think I'm about to cash. I look back in about 15 minutes later and it's a 9 point game.

Seton Hall has a 10 point lead over Rutgers in the first half and Rutger makes a run to cut it to 4 at halftime and Seton Hall was never really in a position to cover after that.



If you actually read all that, what am I doing wrong? This is not 1 time occurence either, this happens all the time. Any input would be helpful before I lose my fvckin mind.

[jjesco425]

UVA needed win badly and plays tuff d at home... in byu case its simple they were locked up this game meant shit so you know there gonna put it in cruise control at end dont want any more injuries so once they had control no reason to go all out...and like you said rutgers doesnt give up

[BernardMadoff]

You doing it wrong son.

[humblebettor]

UVA needed win badly and plays tuff d at home... in byu case its simple they were locked up this game meant shit so you know there gonna put it in cruise control at end dont want any more injuries so once they had control no reason to go all out...and like you said rutgers doesnt give up

OK so with BYU I should taken into account the importance or lack their of, of this game. Seton Hall and UNC, I still feel like I was on the right side of things. Any other information that you use when analyzing games?

[BernardMadoff]

OK so with BYU I should taken into account the importance or lack their of, of this game. Seton Hall and UNC, I still feel like I was on the right side of things. Any other information that you use when analyzing games?

Advice after a game is to be taken with a grain of salt. Keep doing what you're doing, if you put in good research and make smart decisions it will pay off, you're not gonna win every game. Valpo had nothing to play for last night either and came to play, so having a conference locked up doesn't mean anything.

[jjesco425]

Advice after a game is to be taken with a grain of salt. Keep doing what you're doing, if you put in good research and make smart decisions it will pay off, you're not gonna win every game. Valpo had nothing to play for last night either and came to play, so having a conference locked up doesn't mean anything.

i can understand that but i actually played va and portland earlier today and they are verified... just trying to help guy out ok buddy

[humblebettor]

Advice after a game is to be taken with a grain of salt. Keep doing what you're doing, if you put in good research and make smart decisions it will pay off, you're not gonna win every game. Valpo had nothing to play for last night either and came to play, so having a conference locked up doesn't mean anything.

I do feel like I'm putting in the time and not just throwing darts at a team. But it is frustrating losing when you think you examined ever angle you could and still got it wrong. Guess I just have to keep at it and see how it goes.

i can understand that but i actually played va and portland earlier today and they are verified... just trying to help guy out ok buddy

I can understand where both of you are coming from and I appreciate the input. The fact that you had UVA and Portland today means you saw something I didn't.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Not trying to rub salt in the wounds but that NC -4 looked too good to be true. I would stay away from lopsided mismatches where the line is under 5. I believe in trap lines and that NC-4 was a classic example. The true line should have been NC minus 6 or 7 and for it to remain stable at 4 with minimal movement, you have to take that in consideration.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Advice after a game is to be taken with a grain of salt. Keep doing what you're doing, if you put in good research and make smart decisions it will pay off, you're not gonna win every game. Valpo had nothing to play for last night either and came to play, so having a conference locked up doesn't mean anything.

This advice makes no sense in answering the poster's question. You are telling him to "put in good research and make smart decisions" but not telling him how to do this. That is what he is asking to begin with. And yet you give him the run around.

Pay attention.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Not trying to rub salt in the wounds but that NC -4 looked too good to be true. I would stay away from lopsided mismatches where the line is under 5. I believe in trap lines and that NC-4 was a classic example. The true line should have been NC minus 6 or 7 and for it to remain stable at 4 with minimal movement, you have to take that in consideration.

Once again someone bringing up the old "line movement" angle theory.....unbelievable. Again I nor should anyone else trying to analyze and try to cap a game using this "theory".

You would have to elaborate more on the concept of a "trap line" as well as try to convince people making decisions on betting as to how a lines maker can even know when they themselves are setting a trap line or not. So far no one on this forum who advocates studying line movements has even done this.

Therefore it is still hocus pocus reasoning.

[BernardMadoff]

This advice makes no sense in answering the poster's question. You are telling him to "put in good research and make smart decisions" but not telling him how to do this. That is what he is asking to begin with. And yet you give him the run around.

Pay attention.

You really can't teach someone over a computer, much of it is feel, he could easily do the same thing tomorrow and go 4-0.

[fishmonger]

You are looking at things that everyone has looked at. You think injury reports actually gives you an edge? If you were the only one that knew about the injury then yeah. Just remember you are looking at the same stats that everyone else is looking at. If betting and winning at sports was as easy as looking at box scores and rebound stats then everyone would do that. I'm no expert but looking at information that everyone has access to gives no edge.

[tb1984]

Sometimes, you can't just look at box score to pick winners, you also have to look at the mentality aspect. Because of the mentality aspect, upset happens a lot. For example, favorite home teams play down to the competition, underdog home teams play tough(in your case is the UNC game). People always say that never pick favorite road teams to cover spreads, and always pick underdog home teams to cover. But, it's hard to predict players' mentality before each game, that's why bettors like us hate inconsistent teams or teams not playing up to their talent levels.

[SpreadSniper]

try not to play big DD favs, only once in a while whist @ home...
try to get a good number - lines fluctuate and a closer can be much better than an opener and vice versa
try to understand where value lies in your plays
make your own picks then look and see if what you feel makes sense with what the market is doing, if not you might want to pass

BOL

[ifiwaspresident]

This is perfect timing for this thread for me. I was about to post something similar. I too have these kinds of problems on a consistent basis. I try to handicap on my own, but it is apparent I am woefully unqualified. I think I'm looking at everything I can, like good at home, bad on the road, playing up to level of competition, playing down to level of competition, recent hot or cold streaks, recent head to head, recent common opponents, good or bad defense, good or bad offense, good perimeter shooting vs bad perimeter defense and vice versa, etc, etc, etc. I'm always sooooooooooooooooo close but just seem to miss by a point. Today I had NC @ 200, Md @ 300, and AZ @ 200, all ATS.

Feb 25 01:06 AM
by: INTERNET 25991681 CBB Feb 25 04:05 PM STRAIGHT BET [583] NORTH CAROLINA -4-110 220/200 LOSE
Feb 25 10:01 AM
by: INTERNET 25996519 CBB Feb 25 02:35 PM STRAIGHT BET [553] MARYLAND +1-110 330/300 LOSE
Feb 25 12:00 PM
by: INTERNET 26007686 CBB Feb 25 02:05 PM STRAIGHT BET [546] ARIZONA -3-110 220/200 LOSE

They seemed like such obvious bets to me, but I was wrong. I missed every stinking one of them by exactly 1 freaking point. It just feels like I'm doing the work, but there is one small bit of data each time that I am unaware of that the serious bettors take into consideration, and it's that one little nugget of wisdom that is the difference between winning and losing. Unfortunately, I am on the losing side more than winning. I average $100-500 plays, and I'm down probably $3,500 in a month of playing, playing 4-5 days a week with 4-12 plays per day. So I get plenty right, but I just get a little more wrong than right. I hate losing. I'm a freaking electrical engineer. I know math. I know how to crunch numbers. So I assume the mistake lay in the factors I am choosing to evaluate. I just wish I could figure that out. I feel your pain bro. I don't know this for sure, but my guess is there is a "feel" that experienced and successful bettors have, and this feel is like maturity. You can't buy or fake it. You can only earn it with experience.

[MJT1212]

bet the opposite of what you come up with tomorrow and let me know how it turns out

[ponyshowdown]

First you picked all faves....thats a way to lose long term. if i were u, id make my picks, then fade them.

I personally use sbrforum, thespread.com, sportstap.mobi, and dunkel. if u make a pick, and all those sites agree with you, ur probably on the smart side. good luck.

[ThaTopMoron]

always fade UNC for tough road games in the 1st half, u win more than u lose.

[Elysee26]

Looking at Stats is like looking in the rear view mirror. List all your picks on paper and limit yourself to playing your single best play each day for a week or two. Try to figure out why your picks won or lost. You might have made a good play, but if your team shot 20 pct. from the field you're dead in the water...
Just my 2 cents....

[Dom177]

Try not to beat yourself up too much too. Making smaller bets helps me to not freak out when shit doesn't go my way. Ex: Iowa +4 2h the other night. I'm about to break even and then the give up a 3 off the backboard with 1 second left...completely meaningless! Had I been counting on that money to help me out with more than gambling expenses I would have really gone on tilt.

[stacks101]

That why its gambling nothing is guaranteed, you could have a guy so do no research and goes 4-0 on a day.

[TailMe]

It's just bad luck my friend. I'm in the same boat right now. Losing most of my bets by single digits/half points.

For example yesterday:

UNC -3.5 (Same boat as you, Barnes misses the front end of a 1 n 1)
SDSU -8.5 (Got the line late, didn't buy the half point, they win by 8)
USC +3.5 (Public was on ASU, Looking good to cover they lose by 4)
Northwestern -1.5 (Looking good through the whole game, PSU comes back final 2 minutes they only win by 1)
Maryland +1 (They lose by 2)

Talking about an unlucky saturday? Just have to wear it and move on and hope the next time your on the other end of it.

[og4667]

here is what you gotta do...stop betting with money until you find something that actually works...you need to create your own style of betting and own it...takes discipline and being selective to succeed...right off the bat I would say your are playing too many favorites and you need to have a POD

I have had the same problems and still do but have been better lately because I found a style I like...

I Mainly bet dogs...just so many more outcomes possible than picking a favorite to win be a certain amount
Always have a POD...keeps me selective and limits losses
Don't get too wrapped up in public betting %'s, RLM, etc...lines don't play the game

I am taking the Oregon +3.5 as my POD and did a separate smaller parlay with Indiana +2 and Oregon +3.5...we will see how it goes

[tb1984]

This is perfect timing for this thread for me. I was about to post something similar. I too have these kinds of problems on a consistent basis. I try to handicap on my own, but it is apparent I am woefully unqualified. I think I'm looking at everything I can, like good at home, bad on the road, playing up to level of competition, playing down to level of competition, recent hot or cold streaks, recent head to head, recent common opponents, good or bad defense, good or bad offense, good perimeter shooting vs bad perimeter defense and vice versa, etc, etc, etc. I'm always sooooooooooooooooo close but just seem to miss by a point. Today I had NC @ 200, Md @ 300, and AZ @ 200, all ATS.

Feb 25 01:06 AM
by: INTERNET 25991681 CBB Feb 25 04:05 PM STRAIGHT BET [583] NORTH CAROLINA -4-110 220/200 LOSE
Feb 25 10:01 AM
by: INTERNET 25996519 CBB Feb 25 02:35 PM STRAIGHT BET [553] MARYLAND +1-110 330/300 LOSE
Feb 25 12:00 PM
by: INTERNET 26007686 CBB Feb 25 02:05 PM STRAIGHT BET [546] ARIZONA -3-110 220/200 LOSE

They seemed like such obvious bets to me, but I was wrong. I missed every stinking one of them by exactly 1 freaking point. It just feels like I'm doing the work, but there is one small bit of data each time that I am unaware of that the serious bettors take into consideration, and it's that one little nugget of wisdom that is the difference between winning and losing. Unfortunately, I am on the losing side more than winning. I average $100-500 plays, and I'm down probably $3,500 in a month of playing, playing 4-5 days a week with 4-12 plays per day. So I get plenty right, but I just get a little more wrong than right. I hate losing. I'm a freaking electrical engineer. I know math. I know how to crunch numbers. So I assume the mistake lay in the factors I am choosing to evaluate. I just wish I could figure that out. I feel your pain bro. I don't know this for sure, but my guess is there is a "feel" that experienced and successful bettors have, and this feel is like maturity. You can't buy or fake it. You can only earn it with experience.

Bottom line is that it's gambling, if people can pick winners by just doing what you do, we would be all betting for living. Also, when teams fail to cover spreads by .5 or 1 point, the skills of picking winners in these games does not involve, it's all about luck. So, it's unfortunate that you are on the wrong side.

Have you ever thought about ML or teasers betting? I know that in this sbr forum and also in the U.S, people consider those types of betting are sissy, stupid betting. But, take your case in the North Carolina and Arizona games, you think the players care to cover the spread for you? no, they only care about winning the game.

I think you should stick with your electrical engineering career, with steady income. For most of us, sports betting is just for entertainment.

[Blazermaniac]

Gambling is a crap shoot my boy. You win some you loose some. At the end of the day...season if you're good..you break even. If you're lucky you're on the plus side. There's no way to beat it. All I can suggest is to add filters to your capping skills. And then more fillters. Vegas is still in business for one reason and one reason only. There is no way to win in gambling. If you can quit after one or two wins and never ever gamble again then that's the only way you will win. But if you keep on coming back...you will eventually loose it all back. Then it's RELOAD time again and back to square one. Same old stories boys.

[jjesco425]

vegas is sharp end of season so games are gonna be tight losing by 1 or two is no different than by 25....so a big factor if you feel game is gonna be tight is ft's so dig into those stats

[Inkwell77]

how teams are playing lately is not important.
Actually, if you see one team playing terrible in their last few games and another playing great in their last few games bet on the team that has been doing terrible. You will win more than you lose.