Hoping to have some end of the season success.
UConn...-2.5
UConn...-2.5
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Uconn can't shoot for shit. You're really throwing cash out there on that one.Comment -
Thanks for that, but they covered the -2.5 (although line moved to either 3 or 3.5 for most people who got on it). I would've taken 3, but not 3.5.
Picks for 2/21:
Georgetown...-2
UNC...-6.5
KState...+9
New Mexico...-5.5
Virginia....-2
Valparaiso...-11.5
Michigan...+2.5Comment -
One more:
Kentucky...-8.5
KenPom says they win by 13. It could be up to 20. Expect dominance from KentuckyComment -
2/22 plays:
Hofstra...-2
Mich St...-5.5
St. Bonaventure...-6.5
USF...+14
Wyoming...+6
Delaware...-9
Play o' the Day: Hofstra. William & Mary has been playing decently of late (lost close game on road vs. Drexel and beat Northeastern at home the game before), but they have been consistently awful this season (5-24) and Ken Pom has them as the 301st worst defense in the country. Hofstra is similarly bad (9-20), but at least they have wins this season vs decent teams (Iona, Cleveland St., Long Island), and are coming off a 12 point win against Siena (not too shabby).
If W&M are only getting 2 points in any game, they'd have to be facing one of the real bottom feeders (i.e. Liberty, Towson, Colgate, etc) for me not to take the line. I say something along the lines of Hofstra 62 W&M 54.
If anyone is looking to throw down a little bit to win a lot (say a three team parlay), go for USF as your ML upset. I'm expecting a pretty close game.Comment -
Wow, almost every line has since changed in my direction. I don't have any individualized comments, but the half point/full point movements may be enough to change people's minds.
Hofstra...-2 (NOW -3)
Mich St...-5.5 (SAME)
St. Bonaventure...-6.5 (NOW -7)
USF...+14 (NOW +13.5)
Wyoming...+6 (NOW +5.5)
Delaware...-9 (NOW -9.5)Comment -
Update:
Hofstra...-2
Mich St...-5.5
St. Bonaventure...-6.5
USF...+14
Wyoming...+6
Delaware...-9
3-3 for the day, so now 7-7-1 on the year.
Wyoming loses in UT, Mich St by half a point, and Del by two. Rough.Comment -
I'll be checking back tomorrow, BOLComment -
2/23 picks:
BYU...+6.5
Stanford...+5
Eastern Washington...-1
Play o' the Day: Eastern Washington. Sure, Idaho St. plays decently at home and EW plays more poorly on the road, but with the talent gap between these two teams, I'll take EW, especially when I can't lose as long as they don't.Comment -
More:
Arizona...-12
Also, check out Twitter and Google News for updates on BYU's Noah Hartsock. If he can play, you want to grab the +6.5 BYU is getting ASAP. If not, you may want to let the line go (or bet on Zags).Comment -
2/24 picks:
Marquette...+1
Loyola MD...-3
Princeton...+10.5
Cornell...-4.5
Niagara...-3.5
Play o' the Day:Cornell. Brown hasn't covered a 4.5 point spread since Jan 27 when they beat Dartmouth.Comment -
Parlay o' the Day:
Marquette +105
Cornell -220
Niagara -175
Simple parlay tip: anchor your strongest bets with reasonable underdogs. For example, I strongly like Niagara and Cornell to win outright; sure, I can parlay those two and hope to pick up some change, but throwing Marquette at +105 gives me a much better ROI. Obviously it's riskier (and who knows, Cornell/Niagara may lose), but it's a strong strategy for doing parlays.Comment -
Line movements:
Marquette...+1 (NOW +1.5)
Loyola MD...-3 (NOW -4)
Princeton...+10.5 (NOW +11)
Cornell...-4.5 (NOW -5)
Niagara...-3.5 (NOW -4)
3/5 line movements (Niagara, Loyola, and Cornell) are in "agreement" with me, and 2/5 are "disagreeing" with me (Princeton, Marquette). I tend to care 0% about the reasons underlying line changes unless they are based on publicly available information that is causing a market adjustment (e.g. news a player will or will not be playing). I love when lines "disagree" with me, because it means I'm getting more value. Sure, it means that the money is on the other side, but without some data on what that means, I take it as a wash (i.e. the public may be wrong or right, but I'm neutral to it all).
If I were to change any of my bets based on today's line movements it'd be Loyola MD. I'll take them at -3, but I am much more wary at -4.Comment -
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You hit on all 3 Truth. I should have tailed that 1. I got stuck with the points.Comment -
2/25 picks:
Northern Iowa...-3.5
Creighton...-1.5
Georgia St...-8
Maryland...PK
UNC...-4
UMKC...-1
St.Mary's...-4
UNCW...+7
Columbia...-6
Missouri St...+2.5
Murray St...-4.5
(I'm fading Brown hard)
I should have more throughout the day.
Play o' the Day: Creighton. This is a team that won by 25 against Indiana St. last time, and KenPom says they'll win by 5.
Parlay o' the Day:
Northern Iowa -170
UNC -180
St. Mary's -180
Columbia -265
Also, if there are any followers out there, please speak up! Would love some feedback/thoughtsComment -
Tough day so far (lost Creighton, UNC, and Maryland by a combined 4.5 points), and might lose parlay thanks to Brown (yuck). Some late picks:
Arkansas LR...-4
Syracuse...-4.5
UTEP...+7.5Comment -
2/26 picks:
Louisville...-8
Cal...-2.5
Indiana...+2
St.Peter's...+21.5
Fairfield...-3.5Comment
