Thoughts on Baylor/Texas

[georgejung]

Line already out at Texas -2? I know Texas plays good at home but i dont see them beating Baylor. I can see this line going Baylor's way fast. Easy money IMO

[freelife1]

Baylor ml

[Roosterfosho]

Took Baylor +2 for 2 units. I think they'll come out ready to play after a loss.

[convick]

Baylor and the under.

[southpaw74]

Baylor is a lot more beatable now but Texas just isn't good enough IMO. I think the points are good but it's the old thought of the the higher ranked team getting points means take the unranked fav. That scares me a bit.

[georgejung]

Baylor and the under.

Just booked both of them. Pretty confident in those two.

[freelife1]

georgejung goodluck. im debating baylor ml or buying the cushion ...im staying away from the u/o on this one though...

[drfunkmaster]

TEXAS it is!!

[georgejung]

georgejung goodluck. im debating baylor ml or buying the cushion ...im staying away from the u/o on this one though...

probably wont need the points but i took them. oh well

[DerekMadden]

This SCREAMS Texas and the refs.

[drfunkmaster]

This SCREAMS Texas and the refs.

[greenhippo]

UT 14-2 at home with losses to Mizz and Kansas by a combined 4 points. Both teams are much better than Baylor.....

[EaglesPhan36]

UT played Baylor tough on the road, nearly beat a MUCH better Mizzou team at home and played KU very tight at home. Have been trying to pound it into people's skulls, Scott Drew is a bad Xs and Os coach and is going to continue to put this talented team into bad situations. Pretty tough game to bet on as the line seems about right considering all. I don't really see an edge. My gut says UT wins a close game.

[EdwardHaney]

UT is in a must win situation and they have already lost to Baylor in a tight game. Baylor has been a good fade lately. UT would not be okay with getting swept by another Texas school. I figure they'll play really well on this Big Monday game in order to try to solidify a tourney berth with the whole nation watching. I'm leaning toward Texas right now.

[BiffTFinancial]

lean Texas and over.

[Tower]

Texas

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Texas for me and i really like this play BOL

[k13]

Line already out at Texas -2? I know Texas plays good at home but i dont see them beating Baylor. I can see this line going Baylor's way fast. Easy money IMO

Like fast to -2.5?

[rjp322]

Line tells it all in this one guys. Not sure if I will bet this game tonight but I know my money wont be on Baylor if I do

[southpaw74]

Texas has had some big 2h comebacks after laying eggs 1h. I might wait til half on this one.

[DerekMadden]

66% on Baylor so far and line moving in Texas's direction

[No coincidences]

UT played Baylor tough on the road, nearly beat a MUCH better Mizzou team at home and played KU very tight at home. Have been trying to pound it into people's skulls, Scott Drew is a bad Xs and Os coach and is going to continue to put this talented team into bad situations. Pretty tough game to bet on as the line seems about right considering all. I don't really see an edge. My gut says UT wins a close game.

While I agree with you re: Drew, Barnes is no savant either.

[isotopes]

This is probably the best game to watch on the board tonight so wouldn't be surprised if it gets the most action. Baylor has a bad streak going, wouldn't say that this is a must win for them, but if they lose this game they are in danger of becoming a low seed and having a really tough opening weekend in the NCAA's or possibly with another loss or two becoming a bubble team. If Baylor doesn't come to play for this one I would be shocked. I would lean Baylor in this one because they are the more talented team and they really should be motivated, but this is a tough one, small play here.

[TailMe]

This is a tough one to call. I really liked Baylor in the beginning but, now with the RLM and everyone saying Baylor is a lock. I'm leaning Texas or no play right now.

[freelife1]

well everyone is saying texas today last night it was baylor...im still on baylor w/ cushion

[PuckCoach]

The only reason you are looking at this game is the short card. This is a coin toss. UT probably holds serve at home. But Baylor might show up after tough home loss.

[georgejung]

well everyone is saying texas today last night it was baylor...im still on baylor w/ cushion

im with you. everyone is saying texas now but i believe baylor wins

[rjp322]

Come on guys look at the numbers. Right now Im seeing 68% on Baylor spread and 92% on their money line. If this line doesnt scream trap, then Idk what you would call a trap. Id say its Texas or no play and the books will laugh their way to the bank with this one

[freelife1]

Come on guys look at the numbers. Right now Im seeing 68% on Baylor spread and 92% on their money line. If this line doesnt scream trap, then Idk what you would call a trap. Id say its Texas or no play and the books will laugh their way to the bank with this one

If Uconn game is over be4 this game starts i will put your theory to test..

[naslax13]

texas is the play. their underrated. only quality win baylor has on road is ksu

[jinxpro13]

my heart says baylor. my head says texas.

[CoachemUp]

Love UNDER 138 in this one. BOL to all! Playing Texas (got them at -2) as well.

[firehoyt]

I think the best play is to tease Baylor with the Mavericks. Dallas will run all over Boston and Texas wont be blowing Baylor our. It's gonna be a four point game one way or another.

[BiffTFinancial]

piece from ken pom on UT published this afternoon on ESPN insider: [apologies if my cut and paste distorts formatting]

Horns can still hook 'em
Despite mediocre appearance, Texas is a better team than its record indicates
EmailPrintComments
3
By Ken Pomeroy
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive

AP Photo/Michael Thomas
The lack of a big win has hindered the perception of Texas.
The Texas Longhorns will not receive votes in the AP or ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll this week. That's not terribly surprising for a team with 10 losses and sitting at .500 in its own conference. But appearances can be deceiving, and, although I'm not necessarily here to advocate that the Longhorns deserve to garner some votes in the national polls, they might be the best team in the country without any.

The Longhorns arrived in their present circumstance the way most teams do. They don't have a lot of quality wins despite being consistently competitive against very good opponents. You could make a case that their best win of the season was a December victory at UCLA. They have home wins against Big 12 opponents Kansas State and Iowa State, which are nice, but, when those are a team's flagship victories, that team is not going to impress the crowd that uses quality wins to judge the strength of a team. But the truth is, Texas might be stronger than it appears and capable of some noteworthy wins in the latter stages of this season.


Texas is the kind of team you can't understand until you look at its losses. The Longhorns' chances at home against Kansas and Missouri came down to the last possession. Road games against Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State weren't decided until the final minute. We might think of Texas differently had things gone slightly different in the final minute or two of any of those games, but especially the three-point loss to Kansas and a one-point loss to Missouri.

Besides the lack of an eye-popping résumé, I suspect the following three reasons further contribute to the Longhorns' lack of respect:

1) They have an ugly offense

It's easy to spot an ugly offense: It's one that doesn't make shots. However, an ugly offense can still be effective. I'm guessing there will be no better example of this in our lifetime than the 2010 Duke Blue Devils. That season, Duke produced the worst 2-point percentage in the Mike Krzyzewski era (47.0 percent, ranking 201st in the country). Yet the Devils finished tops nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, which included one of the most efficient games in Final Four history against West Virginia.

This season's Texas team is no 2010 Duke, but the Longhorns do struggle to make shots. They are below the Big 12 average in 2- and 3-point accuracy, yet they are also well above the conference average in offensive efficiency. Sure, the offense is ugly, but it's a lot better than it looks based on the Horns' ability to make shots.

Like the national champion Duke team, Texas pulls this off by taking decent care of the ball, grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line a ton, where it has made an admirable 73 percent of their attempts. The offense doesn't look like a thing of beauty, but it's more than functional, averaging 1.06 points per possession in conference games.

2) The Longhorns are inexperienced

If you're stockpiling five-star recruits a la Kentucky or North Carolina, giving a bunch of minutes to freshmen isn't such a bad thing, but that's not the reality for nearly every other program in the nation. Texas is one of just 14 teams that plays as many as six freshmen in its regular rotation. The best of these 14 teams is clearly Texas. The second best is probably Rutgers. The third best? We don't even want to go there. Among the others in this group are Texas Tech, Santa Clara and Towson, teams that have struggled to register even a single conference win.

Texas didn't bring a loaded freshman class on the scale of Kentucky, but, if you following recruiting even a little bit, you've heard of Myck Kabongo. The Canadian hasn't put up eye-popping numbers, and he has a bit of a turnover problem, but he's been solid overall in sharing duties with junior J'Covan Brown as the Longhorns' primary ball handler.

Kabongo's strength has been deferring to Brown, who is a bona fide star offensively. His other contribution has been getting to the free throw line. He has attempted a team-high 141 free throws compared with 189 field goals, a ratio that is exceeded by just seven regulars in all of Division I. Oddly, it was the time he didn't get to the free throw line -- the result of a controversial no-call on the final possession of the Missouri game in Austin -- that was one of the most obvious bad breaks dealt to Texas this season.

3) Texas has no size

Length is a buzzword in hoops, and analysts love length. Texas, however, does not have it; in fact, it is one of the shortest major conference teams in the nation. Brown and Kabongo are listed at 6-1, making the Longhorns' backcourt somewhat small by power conference standards. And Texas plays half of the game with nobody taller than 6-7 on its front line.

Missouri gets a lot of attention for being vertically challenged, but, between 6-8 Ricardo Ratliffe and beefy 6-9 Steve Moore, the Tigers play something resembling a traditional center for nearly all 40 minutes. When 6-10 Clint Chapman isn't on the floor for Texas, it's up to Alexis Wangmene or Jonathan Holmes, both 6-7, to battle opposing big men.

It's no wonder then, that, as with Missouri, the Longhorns' struggles are more often associated with the defensive side. See this past Saturday's debacle against Oklahoma State for an extreme example, when Texas allowed 90 points in 71 possessions en route to a double-digit loss. (Allowing 56 free throw attempts will do that to you. It was the most free throw attempts allowed by any team in any game this season.) But, like the Tigers, Texas is often able to compensate for a mediocre defense with an offense that is able to exploit the mismatches its shorter and quicker lineup provides.

What we have in Texas is a short, inexperienced team that shoots poorly, sometimes struggles on defense and already has 10 losses. Framed that way, it's easy to see why people aren't excited about this team. However, it's also a squad with a very good offense that has played one of the tougher schedules in the nation and, in addition, has experienced an inordinate amount of bad luck in crunch time. I'm not going to suggest that Longhorns fans clear out plans for Final Four weekend, but Texas is a much better team than its national perception would lead you to believe. The Horns will have another opportunity to correct that perception Monday night against Baylor, and their chance of doing so is probably better than you think.

Ken Pomeroy operates the advanced statistical site KenPom.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

[mbs4]

texas is the play. their underrated. only quality win baylor has on road is ksu

BYU