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If you have results of past years, even better.Comment -
I’ve analyzed the last five years of the mid-February mid-major hoops orgy known as Bracket Buster Weekend to see if I could establish any useful betting angles or trends. Instead of working over every single “official” Bracket Buster game I squared my focus on the ones that featuring the mid-major conferences that were routinely wagered upon. That includes the Ohio Valley, Big West, Horizon, Missouri Valley, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Colonial, and Western Athletic. These are the key players and they constitute the primary games in the BB.
Last year I broadened the parameters slightly and came up with 59 total Bracket Buster games. That data, incorporated into the previous four years’ info, has given us a baseline of nearly 220 games from which to draw our conclusions. Here are some useful Bracket Buster betting trends that I have found:
- In the 59 games that I tracked from last year the favorites covered the spread just 47.4 percent of the time (28-31). That was actually a shade more than the previous four years, in which the favorites earned the cash in just 44.9 percent of the games. Now over the past five years favorites are just 99-118 in games concerning the eight primary conferences. That is a weak 45.6 percent for the chalk.
- Not surprisingly, because favorites have been weak wagers when it comes to Bracket Busters, home teams have been just as bad. Last year home teams were a pathetic 22-37 (37.2 percent) against the spread. That was actually down from 18-27 (40 percent) the previous year and gives us a two-year ATS mark of just 40-64 (38.5 percent) for the hosts.
Over the last five years the hosts are a stunningly bad 83-134 ATS. That means that by blindly betting the road teams in the Bracket Buster games you would have hit on an amazing 61.8 percent of your wagers over the last five seasons. You can posit your own theory on why the visitors have performed well above expectations, but the bottom line is that oddsmakers are severely overrating the home court advantage in favor of other factors.
- Building on the home-court disadvantage, teams that had an unusually long travel have performed exceptionally well against the number. My version of “unusually long travel” is a bit subjective but I tried to stick with teams that crossed multiple time zones. And if that was an odd measure the determining factor was whether or not I would be dreading the length of the plane ride.
Most of the situations last year were pretty clear-cut: VCU heading to Nevada or Wisconsin-Green Bay playing at Long Beach State. Over the last five years teams that underwent “unusually long travel” have been an amazing 26-11 ATS. That’s a stellar 70.3 percent success rate. Teams that have had to travel from east to west have gone 18-8 ATS while schools going west to east have gone 8-3 ATS.
Last year the winners were VCU and UW-GB (in the only obvious situations). Two other situations were really close as to whether or not they should count, with Cleveland State going to Wichita State and George Mason playing at Creighton. Both of those two travels failed to cover the spread.
This year there are only a few of these types of situations. We have three obvious E2W situations: Marist at UC-Irvine, Youngstown State at UC-Riverside, and Drake at Cal-Northridge. There are just two instances where a team has long travel from West to East, with Louisiana Tech heading to Northeastern and Nevada traveling to Missouri State.
(That Louisiana Tech game is also tipping off at 11 a.m., which is 10 a.m. local in Ruston, LA.)
- In 2009 the spread only came into play in 14 of the 59 games that I tracked. That means that the team that won the game covered the spread 76.2 percent of the time, which was actually lower than the 81 percent ATS success rate for winners in the four years prior. That means that over the last five years the straight up winners in the Bracket Buster games are 172-45 ATS, an 79.3-percent clip.
Basically, put your money on the team that you think is going to win outright and don’t plan on an underdog “keeping it close”. In four of five games the points don’t come into play.
Further, underdogs have won outright in 75 of the 217 games that I tracked over the last five years. That means that 75 of the 118 underdogs that covered the spread (63.5 percent) won their games outright. It also means that if you really like an underdog you definitely need to put some coin on the moneyline as well.
- Oddly enough, road favorites have been a strong Bracket Buster play. Road faves are a spectacular 19-6 ATS over the last five years after an amazing 9-3 ATS performance last season. Also, visitors that have been posted between a ‘pick’ and 1.5 have gone 9-4 ATS. What those numbers tell me is that any road team that is posted between +1.5 and -12.0 are an automatic play because that subgroup has gone 28-10 ATS over the last five years (73.7 percent).
- Double-digit favorites have struggled in the Bracket Busters, notching a 11-19 overall ATS mark during the last five years. The heavy chalk was just 1-6 ATS last season after posting a 3-4 ATS mark in 2008. (And 2007 was the only year DD favorites turned a profit at 4-2.)
- Here are the five-year overall conference records for the principals:
OVC: 14-28 ATS (4-6 ATS in 2009, 5-5 ATS in 2008)
Big West: 14-15 ATS (4-5 in 2009, 5-2 previous)
Horizon: 26-18 ATS (4-5 in 2009; 4-5 in 2008)
Missouri Valley: 28-20 ATS (7-3 in 2009, 7-2 in 2008)
Metro: 20-21 ATS (5-5 in 2009, 5-5 in 2008)
MAC: 24-32 ATS (2-10 in 2009, 4-5 in 2008)
Colonial: 29-18 ATS (8-4 in 2009, 6-6 in 2008)
WAC: 16-19 ATS (3-6 in 2009, 1-6 in 2008)
It’s interesting to note that the WAC had gone 10-3 ATS in 2006 and 2007 before its 6-16 collapse the last three years (4-12 L2).
So there you have it, some Bracket Buster Basics. I still think it’s very important to focus on the individual matchups in these games, but some of these numbers and the betting strategy that they preclude can’t be ignored.
Carpe diem, my friends. And good luck.Comment -
Nive work Wiseguy. Thx!
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Great job Wiseguy. Now what do you say we do with al of the info? I will no be home until late tonight. If you have some pratical applications do go along with your data, I will look them overv throughly whenever I get home.Comment -
fellas,
check out this thread too: http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-baske...nd-system.html
as for practice applications, i'm taking all of this stuff to the bar to watch soccer in an hour or so with some of my degenerate soccer capping buddies and plan to try to filter out some early leans between these two pieces once BetOnline opens their lines. then will cross-reference with ken pom data for actual match-ups later tonight/first thing tomorrow. will post up with thoughts here.Comment -
So glad the dumb fvcks on this board ran GG off.
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Well Nevada +7.5 is my main play so far.Comment -
Okay, as I see it, there are about eight categories of angles that can be derived from these two pieces: road teams, dogs, travel, road chalk, overs where total is 144’ or less, double-digit dogs, dogs of +1 to +3’, and teams whose games don’t normally have lines.
Obviously, the closing number will dictate whether or not a team actually belongs in a given category, but this list can serve as a starting place. If I miss a team/angle and you notice, feel free to chime in.
I’ll skip compiling a list of road teams and dogs, but will track how they do.
Travel
Nevada +7
St. Mary’s (no line right now)
Hawaii +9’
LBSU +4’
Road Chalk
Campbell -1
IUPUI -7
Wright State -1
Cal Poly SLO -3
Fresno State -4
Double-Digit Dogs
UNCW +11’
JMU +11’
Binghampton +10’
Texas A&M CC +10
Montana State +13’
(Hawaii +9’ right now, so could end up DD dog)
Dogs of +1 to +3’
Drexel +3
Davidson +2’
Liberty +2
Akron+3’ (love it)
Toledo +1’
Fairfield +2
Northwestern St +1 (worth nothing that this is contra Campbell -1 road chalk)
UMKC +1 (worth nothing that this is contra Wright State -1 road chalk)
Wofford +2’
UIC +3’
IPFW +3
Delaware St +1’
Youngstown State +1’
N Colorado +3 (worth nothing that this is contra Caly Poly SLO -3 road chalk)
UC Davis +3’
UCSB +2’
E Washington +1
S Utah +3
SJSU +3
Overs where total 144’ or less
Drexel @ Cleveland State 119
Tenn Tech @ Coastal Carolina 144
Liberty @ Morgan st 138
Hartford @ St Peters 121
No. Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville 133’
Indiana st @ Butler 125’
UNC Wilmington @ Manhattan 140
Akron @ Oral Roberts 141’
Marist @ Maine 140
So. Illinois @ Ball st 125’
Hampton @ Delaware 137
Winthrop @ Appalachian st 128’
E. Michigan @ Wisc Green Bay 117
Morehead st @ Bowling Green 119’
Niagara @ Vermont 141’
Drake @ New Mexico st 143
Toledo @ Sam Houston St 127
Towson @ New Hampshire 114’
Fairfield @ Wisc Milwaukee 124’
SE Missouri st @ McNeese st 137’
Siena @ Hofstra 129’
Lamar @ George Mason 144’
Binghamton @ Radford 125
Old Dominion @ Missouri st 121
Wright st @ UM-Kansas City 120
St Mary's @ Murray st (no total at moment, but should be under 145)
Tenn-Martin @ SE Louisiana 124
High Point @ SF Austin120
Ill-Chicago @ E. Illinois 129’
Tex A&M CC @ C. Michigan 126’
Delaware st @ Gardner Webb 124
IPFW @ E. Kentucky 134
Wofford @ Chaleston Southern 137’
UT San Antonio @ Georgia st 131’
W. Michigan @ N.Dakota st 140’
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley 123’
Idaho st @ Pacific 129
Presbyterian @ Jacksonville st 122’
W. Illinois @ Evansville 123
Youngstown st @ Austin Peay 144’ (probably closes higher and won’t qualify)
UC Davis @ N. Arizona 136’
Hawaii @ Montana 141’
UC Santa Barbara @ Utah st 134
Cal Poly Slo @ N. Colorado 135’
Fresno st @ Cal St Northridge 135’
S. Utah @ UC Riverside 118’
Portland st @ Idaho 141’
San Jose st @ Sacramento st. 139
Teams Whose Games Don’t Normally Have Lines
(eliminate games where both teams fit in this category: Liberty/Morgan St, Campbell/Northwestern St, Radford/Binghampton, Delaware St/Gardner Webb, High Point/SF Austin)
Vermont -9
Winthrop +6
New Hampshire -9’
C Carolina -4’
Stony Brook +2
VMI -4
Hampton +12
Maine -1
MDBC +6’
Hartford +4
Sam Houston St -1’
Lamar +7
McNeese St -5’
C Arkansas +15
Nicholls St +7
NC Asheville +7’
Albany (no line posted right now)
Charleston Southern -2’
Texas A&M CC +10
Texas San Antonio +9’
SE Louisiana -4’
Presbyterian +5’
Texas State +5’
Texas Arlington +4Comment -
Good to see the community working together to beat the books
The one thing I would add is for anyone looking to play Overs below 144' is to get them in early. I played my totals as soon as they opened and have seen 90% of them rise by 1-2 pts already...
The most interesting thing is that Pinny is not moving but heavily juicing the over
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yeah, really regretting not grabbing Buffalo and JMU overs last night.Originally posted by IllusiveconeGood to see the community working together to beat the books The one thing I would add is for anyone looking to play Overs below 144' is to get them in early. I played my totals as soon as they opened and have seen 90% of them rise by 1-2 pts already... The most interesting thing is that Pinny is not moving but heavily juicing the over Comment -
Nice job guys I was looking for lists as well. This will save me some time.Comment -
playing Akron, Fairfield and maybe Drexel from dogs 1-3' group
playing LBSU, Nevada and probably Hawaii from travel group
trying to decide on overs, so manyComment -
Take the VMI game over.Both the Keydets and Bill and Marys defenses suck major donkey balls..Comment -
OK
Nevada +7.5 is my main play. Iona's defense is nonexistent. Do they have a explosive offense? Yes, are they a completely useless team on defense. Yes, Yes, and Yes. Nevada get no attention nationally, and that helps us here. Also this being a road game helps also, b/c Nevada is having one of its worst years attendance wise for home games. They are undefeated in conference play on the road. Athletically this game is even also.Comment -
Davidson +3
UT Arlington +4
IUPUI/Nicholls St OV 146
Bradley -5
Arkansas +5
I have in a parlay.Comment -
i like the under there. huge difference in pace and i don't think that Shaver will want the Tribe to try and run with VMI. VMI doesn't pressure the ball all that well, which is the way to force W&M to play face (VCU is a good example).Originally posted by beefcakeComment -
Wichita State!Comment -
Originally posted by HoulihansTX
backdoor winner
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Originally posted by HoulihansTX backdoor winner
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anyone have a strong vibe on the late braket busters overs from the total list above? Texas-SA/Georgia St and Fresno/CSN both seem reasonable.Comment -
post-mortem on my post from Saturday. tried to base these on the closer at 5D. i can't guarantee that i made no mistakes, so feel free to check my math.Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
Over totals 144' or under: 25-20 (games that closed at 145+ and thus stricken from original list: TT/C Carolina, Lamar/GMU)
Double-digit dogs: 3-4
Dogs 1-3': 9-10
Teams whose games normally are not lined: 15-9
Travel: 2-2
Road Chalk: 2-2 (Campbell stricken because closed as dog not chalk)
bottomline: the over angle and the un-lined teams angles did well, the rest were roughly a coin-flip. i'd be very interested in potential ways to refine the over angle.Comment -
Here are some trends to take into account for today's games.
CBB(837) BOSTON U @ (838) LOYOLA-MD | 02/19/2012 - 12:00 PM
Play UNDER LOYOLA-MD on the total in All games as a favorite
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders this season (+10.90 units)
CBB(837) BOSTON U @ (838) LOYOLA-MD | 02/19/2012 - 12:00 PM
Play UNDER LOYOLA-MD on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders this season (+10.90 units)
CBB(835) OREGON @ (836) STANFORD | 02/19/2012 - 7:30 PM
Play AGAINST STANFORD using the money line in All games revenging a road loss vs opponent
The record is 2 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.00 units)
NBA(801) DALLAS @ (802) NEW YORK | 02/19/2012 - 1:00 PM
Play ONDALLAS using the money line in All games after allowing 85 points or less
The record is 27 Wins and 6 Losses for the last three seasons (+23.10 units)
CBB(833) S FLORIDA @ (834) PITTSBURGH | 02/19/2012 - 7:00 PM
Play AGAINST PITTSBURGH using the money line in All games in all home games
The record is 3 Wins and 5 Losses this season (-17.85 units)
CBB(825) SYRACUSE @ (826) RUTGERS | 02/19/2012 - 1:00 PM
Play AGAINST RUTGERS using the money line in All games when the total is 120 to 129.5
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses this season (-10.85 units)
NHL(1) SAN JOSE @ (2) DETROIT | 02/19/2012 - 12:35 PM
Play ONDETROIT using the money line in All games
The record is 25 Wins and 3 Losses this season (+20.00 units)
CBB(823) MICHIGAN ST @ (824) PURDUE | 02/19/2012 - 1:00 PM
Play ON MICHIGAN ST using the money line in All games after allowing 60 points or less
The record is 8 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+9.70 units)Comment -
Thanks SouthComment -
just realized that i forgot Friday gamesOriginally posted by BiffTFinancial
Over totals 144' or under: 26-21 (games that closed at 145+ and thus stricken from original list: TT/C Carolina, Lamar/GMU)
Double-digit dogs: 3-4
Dogs 1-3': 9-10
Teams whose games normally are not lined: 15-9
Travel: 2-3 (Valpo travelled multiple time zones)
Road Chalk: 2-2 (Campbell stricken because closed as dog not chalk)Comment
