Wednesday's leans

[No coincidences]

Shitty card:

Seton Hall +4.5 at Dayton
Cal Poly-SLO +3 at DePaul
MTSU +3 vs. Mississippi
Texas +12 at North Carolina

Can anyone else find anything worth actually playing?

[YOUNGBUCK]

Love 2nd 2 NoCo

[leetreaper]

like 3 out 4 of those!

[paranoyd androyd]

looking at these

penn state -9
asu -6'
mtsu/ole miss over 133

gl

[chinoloco212]

coin you had a big day today too!? since you had most the same palys as i did?

im only looking at cal poly, bol

[YOUNGBUCK]

Louisiana Monroe +19 anyone

[No coincidences]

Louisiana Monroe +19 anyone

Not sure if I want to go to the well with them again, but Indiana State is in a pretty big letdown spot after the win at Vandy. ULM has to hit a road wall at some point, though.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Ya worried how that number is 19 instead of 15

[Ockert12]

Really liking TEXAS +12

BOL

[Maddhatter]

I like Seton Hall but little worried about them just playin an OT game on the 18th vs a scrappy Mercer team. Pope should dominate the paint and give problems to Dayton's foul prone bigs. Also, this is Seton Hall's first true road game. Last year, Dayton down 26-40 at the half came from behind to win outright 69-65. Huge revenge factor for Seton Hall. Fairly even statwise w/ edge on defense to SH. SH really only runs 6 guys with a few others filling in a few minutes here and there while Dayton is 8-9 deep but some question marks on Johnson (hyper extended knee against FIU), not listed on injury list and Fabrizius w/ a displaced rib. One or both may play.

SH notable wins vs VCU, St Joes, and Wake Forest while losing to Auburn going 5-3 ATS.

Notable wins for Dayton... Wake Forest, Minn, and Alabama. Lost to Miami OH, Buffalo and Murray St (last 2 not even close), going 5-4 ATS. In the two blowout losses, one thing stands out in the stats. Dayton was held to 23% and 14% 3 pt shooting to Buffalo and Murray St respectively. SH is ranked 38th in defending the 3.

As a team Dayton shoots the FT well at 75% and SH at 67.2%. Pope is a beast on the inside and he can cause havoc (conference leader in pts and rebounds). He needs to get a lot of touches for them to win. Dayton's coach even admits their strategy is to limit his touches on the ball. Edge in size to Dayton if Fabrizius is healty. Physicality edge goes to Pope. Big game for both teams. Seton Hall for me or nothing. Small to medium play.

[BigDeem5]

How about Wake -6.5, they're 7-4 and play a bad UNC wilmington team. Wilmington has gotten housed in every loss and have 3 wins against teams that are barely D1 Teams. Wake has also won most game by 8+. I think this is a 12-16 pt winner

[Maddhatter]

Not gonna give a writeup on most but no play on Texas for me. This article has a nice breakdown on N Carolina. Basically, if a team can slow down NC's tempo, they have a shot. Texas is terrible from outside but NC isn't that great at defending the paint either. I believe if Texas can control the tempo and be strong on the glass, they will stay within the spread. Texas isn't a team I'd rely on finishing strong. If they fall behind by double digits, I don't see them fighting back to get in it. Coaching edge leans heavily in favor of NC.

http://www.burntorangenation.com/2011/12/19/2645477/texas-longhorns-basketball-inside-the-numbers-previews-north-carolina

I love Iona here. Bill and Mary has been an auto fade for me all season. They gave up 30+ pts to teams like Georgia St and Richmond. Gave up 20+ to teams like E Kentucky and Lehigh. Iona's 7th straight road game! Large play for me.

Semi auto fade on Tenn Martin. Murray St getting recognized nationally vs a terrible bottom tier team (#308 Kenpom). I hate when a team first breaks into the rankings. More often than not, they lose their next game ATS or even outright. Other reasons why I like this play but pretty tired and getting lazy. Medium play.

BigDeem.... I actually like NC Wilmington more here. Wake is terrible on defense and on the boards (326th nationally in offensive rebounds vs NCW's 80th). NcW defends the 3 well but that's about it. WF 4-4 ATS, NcW 5-3 ATS. Lean only on NcW for a game that looks to end close. Perhaps you have a different angle I don't see. Good luck regardless.

Let down game for Cornell after playing Illinois on the road? Penn St-8.5 shouldn't be laying this many points either. Cornell 1H perhaps?

UCF -2.5? Line suspiciously low. ULL strong at home with only loss to Cal St Full. Spread should be closer to -6 or -7.

Alabama -8 or nothing. Okl St can't close out games. Against Bama, gameplan should always be to get them into foul trouble. Once that happens w/ Green and Releford, they just look out of sync. For Bama, Releford driving the lanes and getting Green the ball in the post has to be key. No play for me.

Mid Tenn St, I just like this team. My only concern is that they lost to a mediocre UAB team and just barely scraped by a terrible Tenn Martin team. Other than that, they were a covering machine ATS. Miss hasn't been bad either. Miss just got couple more freshmen eligible to give them more depth and MTS is pretty evenly spread in offensive #s. Size and rebounding adv to Miss. Neutral site game... Mid Tenn St or nothing for me.

Rest of the games I don't have any opinion on.

[BigDeem5]

Wake @ home - has lost to ASU/Dayton (2 decent D1 bball teams) - they have taken care of business against the bad teams. They also lost to Hall/Richmond on roads. It really is a fade against NC Wilmington is my angle. Wake has a McKie and Harris who are playing well this year. They are still (7-4) and an ACC team. They have athletes. UNC Wilimgton has beaten Ill St, Campbell, and Liberty. Lost to MD by 9, Dayton by 25, Marshall by 5, Davidson by 3, Toledo by 2, and VCU by 23. They are also traveling to Wake. I think Wake wins this game just bc of how bad UNC Wilmington. They only shot 42% from the field - I think this is fading UNC wilm

[No coincidences]

I like Seton Hall but little worried about them just playin an OT game on the 18th vs a scrappy Mercer team. Pope should dominate the paint and give problems to Dayton's foul prone bigs. Also, this is Seton Hall's first true road game. Last year, Dayton down 26-40 at the half came from behind to win outright 69-65. Huge revenge factor for Seton Hall. Fairly even statwise w/ edge on defense to SH. SH really only runs 6 guys with a few others filling in a few minutes here and there while Dayton is 8-9 deep but some question marks on Johnson (hyper extended knee against FIU), not listed on injury list and Fabrizius w/ a displaced rib. One or both may play.

SH notable wins vs VCU, St Joes, and Wake Forest while losing to Auburn going 5-3 ATS.

Notable wins for Dayton... Wake Forest, Minn, and Alabama. Lost to Miami OH, Buffalo and Murray St (last 2 not even close), going 5-4 ATS. In the two blowout losses, one thing stands out in the stats. Dayton was held to 23% and 14% 3 pt shooting to Buffalo and Murray St respectively. SH is ranked 38th in defending the 3.

As a team Dayton shoots the FT well at 75% and SH at 67.2%. Pope is a beast on the inside and he can cause havoc (conference leader in pts and rebounds). He needs to get a lot of touches for them to win. Dayton's coach even admits their strategy is to limit his touches on the ball. Edge in size to Dayton if Fabrizius is healty. Physicality edge goes to Pope. Big game for both teams. Seton Hall for me or nothing. Small to medium play.

First road game for Seton Hall, right?

[Maddhatter]

Yes

[Maddhatter]

http://www.nj.com/setonhall/index.ssf/2011/12/seton_hall_knows_it_has_someth.html

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/springfield-oh-sports/university-of-dayton-flyers/pope-a-challenge-for-foul-prone-flyers-1302140.html?cxtype=rss_university-dayton

[No coincidences]

What do you think about Texas-Arlington Hatter?

[No coincidences]

Adding as a lean:

UT-Arlington +6.5

May consider the ML as well.

ULL-Central Florida line is suspiciously low.

[Donnie Brasco]

Good luck to u as well! Hope depaul cashes for u, i see its a nice sized play for you!!!

[Donnie Brasco]

Some steam on depaul would be nice!

[BigDan]

real hard not to like MTSU, only halfway decent team sip has beat was mia and it took them ot to do that..where this gm being played?

to bad Cornell just played illini so close, pen st should have edge on the boards but laying 8 with them? Cornell has been competitive in damn near ever gm they have played since being beat badly by bonnies in their 1st gm..who the hell has pen st beat, and who the hell have they beat by this wide a margin?

Hatter i hear you about okie st not closing out gms but how can you lay those points with a horrific shooting team? i dont know if okie st has a zone in their arsenal but any coach with a brain will zone this team to death and force them to shoot over the top, love bama's defense but it is painful to watch them offensively when teams take away the inside..

[t-bone]

first look, cornell/penn state under 128.5 looks tasty......i think it may drop even more before tip.

good luck tonight

[ScurvyPirate]

New to SBR posting, been following for a while and long time college basketball bettor. I'm liking Wake Forest in this spot. Not a great Wake Forest squad, pretty athletic as usual. Should be able to put away a lessor opponent Wilmington by the number. BOL.

[WildcatNation]

Love Texas Arlington tonight this will be a close game i Locked in TX- Arlington +6.5. This is my favorite play of the day.

[comala57]

what I have for the night

1 unit each picks
UCF up to -4.5
Alabama up to -6.5
Texas +12

Leans for small play
Murray St -21.5
Vanderbilt-20

Hockey:
Chicago to win and Chicago -1.5

NCAAFB
TCU -9

Up 4.5 Units so far this week, I don't have a right up for any of my picks other than my system really likes UCF, Alabama and Texas

[lyon804]

real hard not to like MTSU, only halfway decent team sip has beat was mia and it took them ot to do that..where this gm being played?

to bad Cornell just played illini so close, pen st should have edge on the boards but laying 8 with them? Cornell has been competitive in damn near ever gm they have played since being beat badly by bonnies in their 1st gm..who the hell has pen st beat, and who the hell have they beat by this wide a margin?

Hatter i hear you about okie st not closing out gms but how can you lay those points with a horrific shooting team? i dont know if okie st has a zone in their arsenal but any coach with a brain will zone this team to death and force them to shoot over the top, love bama's defense but it is painful to watch them offensively when teams take away the inside..

Right on about Alabama offense. Any coach with a brain should pack the paint with a zone and force them to make outside shots. Alabama defense is pretty good, but not nearly as good when they go cold. Alabama relies on their defense to set up easy transistion offense which they are pretty athletic and explosive in transistion. Alabama likes to pressure the ball. I have not seen OK St play, but if their guards can protect the ball against Alabama's pressure they should be in this game. The other poster was right, if Green and Releford get in foul trouble early they are done and so is Alabama. It should be a fun game to watch, especially if Tony Mitchell gets some highlight reel breaks. Alabama has been on a slide lately since playing some real basketball schools after their strong start. One thing I do know is their offense is bad, but not nearly as bad as they have played lately. Sooner or later that should even out but who knows when. I'll pass here but lean Bama.

[RoadDog]

Seton Hall

Also, I hope no one falls for the TCU trap in football tonight. Get LA Tech at 10 and hit it.

[BigDan]

Right on about Alabama offense. Any coach with a brain should pack the paint with a zone and force them to make outside shots. Alabama defense is pretty good, but not nearly as good when they go cold. Alabama relies on their defense to set up easy transistion offense which they are pretty athletic and explosive in transistion. Alabama likes to pressure the ball. I have not seen OK St play, but if their guards can protect the ball against Alabama's pressure they should be in this game. The other poster was right, if Green and Releford get in foul trouble early they are done and so is Alabama. It should be a fun game to watch, especially if Tony Mitchell gets some highlight reel breaks. Alabama has been on a slide lately since playing some real basketball schools after their strong start. One thing I do know is their offense is bad, but not nearly as bad as they have played lately. Sooner or later that should even out but who knows when. I'll pass here but lean Bama.

okie st wont turn it over a whole lot but they play 3 sometimes 4 guards at a damn time and take a lot of jumpers that could lead to breakouts for bama, transition d has been solid for the most part when ive watched them and their overall defensive numbers are strong enough not sure i see bama with some offensive outburst.. .bama on a really bad ats streak so i agree a breakout is sure to come not sure if it be tonight or not,..if i had any faith in okie st to score in this gm id be all over the points but they may really struggle for baskets here.. looks like a pass for me as well unless line goes crazy and then ill have to rethink it..

[jack meoff]

Ucf??

[BigDan]

trying to wrap my mind around playing cal poly, huge contrast in styles here as depaul wants to push the pace and poly plays at a snails tempo.. couple things bother me about poly though, 1st they rely heavily on 3s and that never something i like in a road team and they have came out with some low point totals on the road (granted a few of them were against teams much better than depaul), not thrilled that poly hasnt been east yet either..

[Kadinni]

Hey NC, I played UTA last night actually. and it was one crazy ass game. check out the box score and play by play. With 3 mins to go down 15. Game comes down to 30 secs, and they(UTA) hit 3 straight 3s including at the buzzer to cover the spread. Might be tired going into that kenn st game. Kenn st played earlier in the day also against a pretty bad St Peters team. Havent fully capped it, just a glaze, but why are you leaning towards uta??

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=313540328

[BigDan]

Hey NC, I played UTA last night actually. and it was one crazy ass game. check out the box score and play by play. With 3 mins to go down 15. Game comes down to 30 secs, and they(UTA) hit 3 straight 3s including at the buzzer to cover the spread. Might be tired going into that kenn st game. Kenn st played earlier in the day also against a pretty bad St Peters team. Havent fully capped it, just a glaze, but why are you leaning towards uta??



http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=313540328

i like Kent st in this one... dont think they will shoot as poorly as they did the other night now they should be more accustomed to this gym, should be a pretty hectic pace and think kent will wear them down over the coarse of this gm..

[No coincidences]

first look, cornell/penn state under 128.5 looks tasty......i think it may drop even more before tip.

good luck tonight

[No coincidences]

trying to wrap my mind around playing cal poly, huge contrast in styles here as depaul wants to push the pace and poly plays at a snails tempo.. couple things bother me about poly though, 1st they rely heavily on 3s and that never something i like in a road team and they have came out with some low point totals on the road (granted a few of them were against teams much better than depaul), not thrilled that poly hasnt been east yet either..

That's probably why I'll pass.

Louisiana-Lafayette is looking interesting vs. UCF. Weird line. UCF should be like -4.

[Donnie Brasco]

Good luck to u as well! Hope depaul cashes for u, i see its a nice sized play for you!!!

Feel like an idiot, thought i saw u on depaul!!! Good luck anyways, just not on that one, lol!!