College Hoops 2011-12

[BiffTFinancial]

Found this pretty good writeup for you: Xavier's offense has looked no where near what it could be or what it looked at the start of the year. Yah, lately they've put up some points, but those games have also come against up-tempo teams, which St. Louis is not. St. Louis averages 62 possessions a game, and Xavier's only taken part in a game less than that once, and they weren't really tested b/c they were blowing out a Duquesne team who can't score all of a sudden. If you're backing the X, then Frease is going to have a good game. This STL team has four guards that rank top 500 nationally in steal percentage. They pressure the living piss out of you. I think Tu gets his, but ultimately Frease is going to have to rid the injuries or whatever is effecting his performance this year b/c he has been the missing peice. Ultimately, Xavier's home court could be the advantage they need, but I don't think they have the depth, nor the offense to get the win going against a style they haven't played yet on the season. I won't even comment on how good the St. Louis offense is (they don't have a single "key" contributor on the team with an offensive rating of less than 100). Simply amazing. STL has septuple revenge as well.

that is a good write-up, thank you for posting it. my only comment relates the final sentence. that is, Ball State also played with septuple revenge last night, heh heh.

[Ckcashmoney]

Had a bad night

[Ckcashmoney]

Had a bad night biff, Texas blew the cover When they had a huge lead, purdue really hurt me so my mediocre bet on vanderbilt didn't do too much for me when I Played purdue too heavy. I took 'nova +8. What's your feelings on that? I tail you quite often so I'd love your input

[BiffTFinancial]

Is it more about fading Xavier and being confident about Saint Louis? Both beat Duquesne handily, both lost to Dayton. Other than the Dayton loss, Xavier won their other previous 4 games. Would love some of your insight into this game, as I find the two teams evenly matched, but give the nod to Xavier for being at home.

sure, i'd be happy to. this really isn't about fading XU, as i like them enough to have backed them last week against St. Joe's in the game before Dayton. i pay a lot of attention to Ohio teams, and XU is one of them, and i think that this is a horrible match-up for XU. first, i am a big believer in ken pom offensive and defensive ratings, and SLU is like a mini-Wisconsin there (in fact, they are arguably more Wisconsin that Wisky is this season). SLU will make XU play at their tempo and XU will hate it. XU is not a very disciplined team, and being forced to play defense for 25-30 seconds at a time and not having many fast break opportunities is going to frustrate them. second, like many people, i have my own "power ratings" and my ratings say that SLU is about 5.5-6 points better than XU on a neutral courts, so even if i give XU 4 points for HCA, i still like SLU by 2 outright. third, XU is only really better than SLU in two areas: defending the three and getting to the FT line. well, SLU's deliberate offense and insistence on getting a good shot (as well as their ridiculous 40.6% 3PT%) will minimize the XU advantage in perimeter defense, and SLU simply doesn't give many fouls, so XU will lose both fast break points and FT opportunities in this match-up - XU loses a lot of its easy buckets upon which it relies tonight. in the end, i see it as Billikens, 61-57. BOL whatever you decide.

[BiffTFinancial]

Had a bad night biff, Texas blew the cover When they had a huge lead, purdue really hurt me so my mediocre bet on vanderbilt didn't do too much for me when I Played purdue too heavy. I took 'nova +8. What's your feelings on that? I tail you quite often so I'd love your input

that sucks, sorry to hear that. for what it's worth, i liked Purdue enough to place a couple of 20 bucks side bets on it with two of my shithead friends - very surprising to UM get their first road win in Mackey of all places. sucks that you lost the UT cover, i thought that one was a goner at 46-31 in the 2H, so i was really happy to get the backdoor to make up for my loss on Baylor/OU over.

i have not capped Nova/Louisville game, but i am not a fan of this Louisville team at all. off the top of my head, i'd cap it at UL by 5-7, so lean Nova. little surprised to see the line move so drastically to UL, but public is surely heavy on them after the beatdown they administered to Pitt on Saturday. defending Kuric and forcing Siva into bad decisions will be key. fortunately, the latter seems to happen by itself. Nova's 3-pt defense has been decent this season, and if they can contain Kuric and Russ Smith and get UL's bigs in foul trouble, they can certainly cover. BOL to you tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Drexel -5 (-107)
2* VCU -20' (-103)

Wednesday 1.25.2012 updated card
3* Saint Louis +2' (-107)
3* Drexel -5 (-107)
2* VCU -20' (-103)
1* Saint Louis ML +125

[Madison]

sure, i'd be happy to. this really isn't about fading XU, as i like them enough to have backed them last week against St. Joe's in the game before Dayton. i pay a lot of attention to Ohio teams, and XU is one of them, and i think that this is a horrible match-up for XU. first, i am a big believer in ken pom offensive and defensive ratings, and SLU is like a mini-Wisconsin there (in fact, they are arguably more Wisconsin that Wisky is this season). SLU will make XU play at their tempo and XU will hate it. XU is not a very disciplined team, and being forced to play defense for 25-30 seconds at a time and not having many fast break opportunities is going to frustrate them. second, like many people, i have my own "power ratings" and my ratings say that SLU is about 5.5-6 points better than XU on a neutral courts, so even if i give XU 4 points for HCA, i still like SLU by 2 outright. third, XU is only really better than SLU in two areas: defending the three and getting to the FT line. well, SLU's deliberate offense and insistence on getting a good shot (as well as their ridiculous 40.6% 3PT%) will minimize the XU advantage in perimeter defense, and SLU simply doesn't give many fouls, so XU will lose both fast break points and FT opportunities in this match-up - XU loses a lot of its easy buckets upon which it relies tonight. in the end, i see it as Billikens, 61-57. BOL whatever you decide.

Nice writeup. Totally agree on first have regarding pace etc.

[Madison]

Hey, have you looked at Aub/Ark 134 and O/U Xav/Stl 124/126 total? That 134 is tantalizing U.

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey, have you looked at Aub/Ark 134 and O/U Xav/Stl 124/126 total? That 134 is tantalizing U.

i have not looked at Aub/Ark but will try to in a bit. agree that SLU/XU under looks good - as you can see above, i cap that game to finish at around 118-120. i don't like to play side and total in same game, and i really like SLU tonight, but even with the total having dropped, i still definitely see value in that under. will try to cap Aub/Ark in the next couple of hours - i'm busier than Gary Williams' dry cleaner right now (begs the question as to why i'm goofing around talking hoops, it's just more fun).

[Madison]

@ Tex 62-55 Iowa St ... Iowa State, the Big 12 leader in 3-pointers, had a miserable shooting night, going 5 of 21 from long range and 33 percent from the floor overall

LOL, same here just multitasking. Thx and GL.

[BiffTFinancial]

@ Tex 62-55 Iowa St ... Iowa State, the Big 12 leader in 3-pointers, had a miserable shooting night, going 5 of 21 from long range and 33 percent from the floor overall LOL, same here just multitasking. Thx and GL.

yeah, it definitely occurred to me last night that the play on that game was not the side, but under 142. talk about an easy winner.

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey, have you looked at Aub/Ark 134 and O/U Xav/Stl 124/126 total? That 134 is tantalizing U.

i cap the Aub/Ark game to finish at around 126, so yes, like the under there. have to decide if going to add it or not. also really liking Delaware +7', Providence +10 too.

[jabber811]

Liking Providence and Delaware also. Have the Auburn/Arkansas total at 131, so I like that one too.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Auburn/Arkansas under 134

Wednesday 1.25.2012 updated card
3* Saint Louis +2' (-107)
3* Drexel -5 (-107)
2* VCU -20' (-103)
2* Auburn/Arkansas under 134
1* Saint Louis ML +125

[BiffTFinancial]

Liking Providence and Delaware also. Have the Auburn/Arkansas total at 131, so I like that one too.

thanks, jabber. my concern with both Providence and Delaware is the same - the fishy line movement. of course, the movement also is a little fishy on VCU and may well mean nothing. i honestly can't imagine anyone backing Towson against VCU, smart money, dumb money or otherwise. BOL to you tonight.

[alamo]

Holy Cow. Saint Louis were 7/14 1h from THREE. Now they are 0/5. In contrast, Xavier 1/6 are now 4/4. YIKES

[Rick22]

Thanks for 3 winners tonite Biff. The Auburn/Ark game was down to 131' by the time I looked at it so I passed. Good luck on it and good nite.

[alamo]

Great call on Saint Louis Biff ! It was getting trippy mid way thru that 2h but our boys really responded when asked the question. How about we go on now and get that sweep for a monster night !!!

[BiffTFinancial]

Holy Cow. Saint Louis were 7/14 1h from THREE. Now they are 0/5. In contrast, Xavier 1/6 are now 4/4. YIKES

yeah, things got a little tight there in the middle of the 2H. then, as a good team would, SLU went to Conklin inside and got themselves into the one-and-one and took back control of the game. love that team and really enjoyed watching that game. Holloway and Lyons for X are sweet, they kept X in the game.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thanks for 3 winners tonite Biff. The Auburn/Ark game was down to 131' by the time I looked at it so I passed. Good luck on it and good nite.

thank you, Rick. that was a fun sweat. Drexel and VCU both started slowly but then took control. gotta love that Towson can't shoot threes to guard against the backdoor cover.

[BiffTFinancial]

Great call on Saint Louis Biff ! It was getting trippy mid way thru that 2h but our boys really responded when asked the question. How about we go on now and get that sweep for a monster night !!!

thanks, man! that game jumped off the page this morning, gotta love when the instincts are right. love backing well-coached teams like SLU and Sparty and Wisky. you know what to expect, and SLU pounding it inside to Conklin when things got tight was a W for smart hoops. solid start in Fayetteville, let's hope it holds up.

[LockPickMaster]

You are on fire

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 1.25.2012 updated card
3* Saint Louis +2' (-107) - WINNER
3* Drexel -5 (-107) - WINNER
2* VCU -20' (-103) - WINNER
2* Auburn/Arkansas under 134
1* Saint Louis ML +125 - WINNER

4-0 +9.25u start, Auburn/Arky under pending.

[BiffTFinancial]

You are on fire

thanks!

[nickspen13]

Good Work!

[pacocn]

Biff, nice sweep

[alamo]

New broom ....sweep it clean baby !!!

[BiffTFinancial]

thanks fellas!

5-0 +11.25u, 93-73-3 +45.19u season to date.

[golfhotel95476]

good job biff

hey quick question have you heard 2dabank is he under a new name i have not seen him for atleast a couple months

[BiffTFinancial]

good job biff hey quick question have you heard 2dabank is he under a new name i have not seen him for atleast a couple months

haven't seen him in awhile, unfortunately. good dude and knows his hoops.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thursday 1.26.2012
3* Davidson/Chattanooga over 151'
3* St. Mary's/Loyola Marymount over 139'
2* North Dakota St/IUPU-Fort Wayne over 140

[BiffTFinancial]

Davidson/Chatt, St. Mary's/LMU and NDSU/IUPUFW are all keep-up games. every other potential candidate had one or more red flags. going to be tied up all morning, back this afternoon.

[Madison]

Seriously, want a good laugh. Check out the play by play of the Aub/Ark game. 11-10 with 7 min to go 1H. I went to bed and slept well.

[BiffTFinancial]

Seriously, want a good laugh. Check out the play by play of the Aub/Ark game. 11-10 with 7 min to go 1H. I went to bed and slept well.

it was unreal. it was the rare occasion when i had money on a game and was glad that i couldn't watch. there was a minor concern with OT late, but it would've taken at least 2 OTs to get this one over. scores mid-1H were like from a CYO game.

[BMaddz]

My St marys/LMd total is at 142.5 would you still play it...hate how my books takes forever for totals to come out