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Wednesday 1.18.2012 final card
3* Xavier -6' (-103) - WINNER
3* La Salle/Temple over 145 - WINNER
3* Drake/Southern Illinois over 140 - WINNER
3* Texas/Kansas State 2H over 74 - WINNER
2* Texas/Kansas State 1H under 64 - LOSER
1* Marshall +4 (-105) - LOSER
4-2 +8.75u tonight, 74-63-3 +23.36u season to date.
close shaves on Drake and Temple overs, and UT/KSU 1H under and Marshall were bad picks. fortunate that it turned out to be such a good night.Comment -
Biff, your are rollin, keep it going
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Great job last night. Had really given up on the Drake game - so I missed your Texas over - oh well.Comment -
Thursday 1.19.2012
3* Vandy +6Comment -
tough card for potential keep-up games. there are eight games that look as if they might be fits, but each has at least one red flag:
- 4 red flags: Valpo/Loyola-Chicago
- 3 red flags: A Peay/SIUE (though i still like the over in this one)
- 2 red flags: Fairfield/St. Peter's, UVA/GT
- FAU/Troy is -3' right now, and has a red flag even if it moves to -4
- NMSU/SJSU red flag for SJSU's awful 2PT%
that leaves us with two potential candidate, both of which have red flags, but are really close, so may be willing to overlook the respective red flags after some capping:
UNC/VT over 142' (VT's pace is 64.5, over 10 lower than UNC's pace of 75.1 - will VT want to run with UNC?)
Illinois/PSU over 123' (PSU's 2PT% is shaky, but not terrible like say SJSU; also, opened at -4 but now -3')
going to look at those two more closely right now.Comment -
adding
3* Illinois/Penn State over 124
Thursday 1.19.2012
3* Vandy +6
3* Illinois/Penn State over 124Comment -
Illinois/Penn State is not a keep-up game (spread only 3 or 3' right now depending upon where you look), but i still like the over a lot.Comment -
scratch UNC/VT as a potential keep-up game due to the pace red flag. i still lean over there and may play it.
no keep-up games, none of the 8 games that are candidates meet the criteria.Comment -
adding
2* UCLA/Oregon State over 147
Thursday 1.19.2012 updated card
3* Vandy +6
3* Illinois/Penn State over 124
2* UCLA/Oregon State over 147Comment -
Card is shaping up nicely....Comment -
adding
2* Valparaiso -5' (-109)
Thursday 1.19.2012 updated card
3* Vandy +6
3* Illinois/Penn State over 124
2* Valparaiso -5' (-109)
2* UCLA/Oregon State over 147
okay, gotta take off soon. BOL to all tonight.Comment -
Good Luck Tonite Biff - I'm tailin and you know how I always love Valpo................Comment -
just got home, want to take 2H over 79 on UNC/VT, but probably passing.Comment -
Another great night with 3 no stress winners !
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Thursday 1.19.2012 final card
3* Vandy +6 - WINNER
3* Illinois/Penn State over 124 - LOSER
2* Valparaiso -5' (-109) - WINNER
2* UCLA/Oregon State over 147 - WINNER
3-1 +3.7u on the night, 77-64-3 +27.06u season to date.Comment -
no keep-up games for Friday. small card (only 4 games), and Manhattan/Marist is the only one with a home dog between 4-10 points. Marist has a red flag (very low assist/TO ratio). and, even if the spread for Milwaukee/YSU rises to 4+ (currently 3), YSU has a red flag for 2PT%. that said, overs in both games may be worth a look, going to cap those more closely.Comment -
leans
Milwaukee/YSU over 125
WGB/Cleveland State over 127'Comment -
Biff, tailed you tonight, tired of picking my own losers. Thanks for the wins!Comment -
a few reasons. first, CSU has finally gotten healthy in the last couple of weeks and has been shooting the ball really well. they had an off game at Valpo on the back end of the Indiana road trip, but that was an obvious letdown spot. they scorched the nets the three games prior, shot the best they have all year. second, CSU is really good at pressuring the ball (Opp TO% 27.9 2nd nationally) and WGB is terrible at protecting it (TO% 23.5 299th nationally). Waters will really have CSU pressuring the ball from the outset against a shaky offensive team so as to create easy offensive opportunities with their defense. third, although neither team is good at getting to the line or making FTs, CSU has a very high Opp FTA/FGA of 54.7 (343rd nationally), due in significant part to the pressure that they put on the ball. CSU fouls will beget WGB fouls and both teams will get into the bonus earlier than expected, i think. fourth, this is a huge ESPNU game for CSU. they'll have a decent crowd there (for CSU). feel as if the pace of those types of games tends to skew a little higher than less high-profile games. fifth, i think that the spread for this game is about right, i think it's a 7-10 point game with under two minutes left, and then there could be a ton of FTs. Bottom-line: CSU will be wanting to show what they can do, pressuring a shaky ball-handling club and showing off their recent excellent shooting. i think this one ends up with a higher pace than the ken pom prediction of 66. CSU is my home-town team and i think that i have a decent feel for them. my projection is CSU, 72-62/70-60, but i think that FTs could push it higher.
that said, i've been wrong plenty, and could certainly be wrong here if WGB tries to make this a snail's pace game and CSU starts cold from outside, or if WGB completely doesn't show up offensively. BOL with your play, pal.Comment -
CSU -2/OVER 121 7.5 pt teaser @ -240
Risk 4.80 to win 2.00 only play on a short card!
Best of luck tonight, Biff! Good luck!Comment -
wow....thanks for the lengthy write-up Biff, you certainly are very knowledgeable about these teams, I haven't seen either play in over a month....I won't be playing the under anymore. I'm not the type that will come back to give you shit if the under does cash here...
GL with your plays tonight biff and thanks again!Comment -
thanks. i had a buddy who played for Waters at Kent State, so we have had lengthy conversations about how he'll handle certain situations, attack certain teams. i could be wrong about tonight, and frankly, i may pass now that the total is 128' since i see a 130-134 point game. i normally want a little more value than that. BOL to you tonight, can't wait to watch this game even if i have no money on it.Comment -
passing on WGB/CSU over now that it's at 129, taking night off unless something looks good 2H. am putting 1.5u on Bayern -1 +126 and going to bar to watch. BOL to all tonight.Comment -
Saturday 1.21.2012
3* Cal/Wazzu over 134'
3* St. Joe's/Penn over 133'
3* Marquette/Providence over 143'
2* Syracuse/Notre Dame over 134'Comment -
Good morning, sir!
Thanks for the leans...
and good luck today!Comment -
Aub/SC opened? 121 now 119 ... ThxComment