College Hoops 2011-12

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff when you say "keep up" game what exactly do you mean. Apologies if ques has been asked before or if i should already know! Congrats on the run your on.

no apology necessary. i will cut and paste from earlier description to Rick simply because i put some thought into it:

keep-up game angle is something i've been working on with a buddy since about this time last year. keep-up game is the over in a game with a 4-10 point home dog where the dog can be expected to play at a heightened pace from early on, and the faster pace combined with potential for FTs can cause the game to soar over. there are red flags for pace, difference between fave and dog pace, Pomeroy offensive rating, 3PT%, 2PT%, assist/turnover ratio, line movement. its a game that the dog has circled on their calendar where they will come out and try to jump out from the start and play much faster than their normal pace.

i should also add that too much zone defense from either team can be a red flag as well. BOL to you today.

[BiffTFinancial]

other leans for today
Sparty -1
Auburn/LSU under 120', 1H under 55'
MSU/UM under 132, 1H under 61'
Iowa/Purdue under 142, 1H under 66'

gotta take off, back sometime later today, probably afternoon.

[BiffTFinancial]

fk me, all three of my totals leans dropped even though public is on over in each one. makes me wish i'd just booked them early this morning.

also lean Maryland +11' and MD/FSU under.

[BiffTFinancial]

will almost certainly play Auburn/LSU under 2* (waiting to see if i can get 120 at some point this afternoon) and almost certainly pass on MSU/UM. ok, fun's over back to work.

[alamo]

no apology necessary. i will cut and paste from earlier description to Rick simply because i put some thought into it: keep-up game angle is something i've been working on with a buddy since about this time last year. keep-up game is the over in a game with a 4-10 point home dog where the dog can be expected to play at a heightened pace from early on, and the faster pace combined with potential for FTs can cause the game to soar over. there are red flags for pace, difference between fave and dog pace, Pomeroy offensive rating, 3PT%, 2PT%, assist/turnover ratio, line movement. its a game that the dog has circled on their calendar where they will come out and try to jump out from the start and play much faster than their normal pace. i should also add that too much zone defense from either team can be a red flag as well. BOL to you today.

Very interesting indeed, hadn't seen or heard about this theory before. Thanks again for posting. Will be with you on the Georgetown total.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Auburn/LSU under 119'

Tuesday 1.17.2012
3* Georgetown/DePaul over 146'
2* Auburn/LSU under 119'

[BiffTFinancial]

Very interesting indeed, hadn't seen or heard about this theory before. Thanks again for posting. Will be with you on the Georgetown total.

thanks. not surprised that you haven't heard of it, as it's ginned up entirely by my friend and i. i'm pleasantly surprised at the results so far this season after refining the criteria/red flags (16-8-1 after 8-1 start, there was an 0-3 Saturday in the middle), and i haven't played any bigger than 4u so far (although i did go 1H and game over for 6u total on Wichita State/Indiana State on Sunday). definitely would not advise going long on any one game as we work out the bugs on this angle. really helps to have a home dog that wants to play fast and can't help but play somewhat stupid with quick shots and silly fouls, DePaul is a good example (UMass is another). BOL to us tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

gonna be out for the next few hours so sticking with my two plays and probably won't be able to make any 2H plays. BOL to all tonight.

[Madison]

Auburn Under is cursed. 6 pts in last 4 secs 1H. 3 tries at 3 to tie and OT. OMFG!

[ChipperDog]

Terrible break on lsu under
But keep up system works to a t again!

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 1.17.2012
3* Georgetown/DePaul over 146' - WINNER
2* Auburn/LSU under 119' - LOSER

1-1 +0.8u tonight, 70-61-3 +14.61u season to date.

[BiffTFinancial]

keep-up game winner on DePaul over improves tally to 17-8-1. DePaul is a great keep-up team. was watching on my phone because i had a work thing, but i think that i saw that one of their players fouled a manager when he handed him water.

harsh loss on Auburn/LSU under in OT when regulation was easily under. 1H under would not have hit due to flurry of points at end, so it's not as if that could have saved this play. if LSU made both FTs late in regulation to push the lead to 4, or grabbed a defensive board on the final possession, that sure would've helped. oh well.

10-4 over last 3 days, and the 4 losses were a half-point loss, two one-point losses and Auburn/LSU by 3.5 in OT. no bitching, glad that the losers aren't bad picks. hoop looks huge, coach, keep me in.

[BiffTFinancial]

Auburn Under is cursed. 6 pts in last 4 secs 1H. 3 tries at 3 to tie and OT. OMFG!

that was a tough one. whatever, your intel on Auburn pace has been solid. we still have couple of games to take advantage of that angle before the totals start to catch up.

[BiffTFinancial]

Terrible break on lsu under But keep up system works to a t again!

thanks!

[alamo]

Watched the finish on a live lookin on espn. Heart sank as they failed to get 3 rebounds off missed threes and then when the third one hit with .2sec left on clock well...

Right pick and thats all matters. Still positive for the day. Keep it going dude.

[BiffTFinancial]

Watched the finish on a live lookin on espn. Heart sank as they failed to get 3 rebounds off missed threes and then when the third one hit with .2sec left on clock well... Right pick and thats all matters. Still positive for the day. Keep it going dude.

i'm almost glad that i wasn't able to watch it live and had to get updates on phone. would have been more frustrating. oh well, on to the next. it happens and a lot of my leans ended up sucking today, so at least i kept it light. thanks, pal.

[pacocn]

biff, nice work, your leans all beat the closer
glad you kept it small. Keep up games on fire.

[BiffTFinancial]

biff, nice work, your leans all beat the closer glad you kept it small. Keep up games on fire.

thanks, pacocn. let's get back at em tomorrow.

[BiffTFinancial]

looking as if no keep-up games today:

- Georgia St/Northeastern is 3.5-point spread.
- WVU/Marshall is a neutral site game.
- WMU/EMU is red flagged on just about every criteria because EMU is so bad.
- both Morehead State (vs Murray St) and Nebraska (vs Indiana) have very slow pace (62.2 and 62.5 respectively) and Morehead also has very low assist/TO ratio.

that leaves us with Drexel/Hofstra, but Hofstra has a red flag for assist/TO ratio and Drexel plays at a very slow pace (62.3). in the end, if the spread in Ga St/NE rises to 4+, that's a potential candidate, but if not, no keep-up games today.

[Redscot]

looking as if no keep-up games today. Georgia St/Northeastern is 3.5-point spread. WVU/Marshall is a neutral site game. WMU/EMU is red flagged on just about every criteria because EMU is so bad. both Morehead State (vs Murray St) and Nebraska (vs Indiana) have very slow pace (62.2 and 62.5 respectively) and Morehead also has very low assist/TO ratio. that leaves us with Drexel/Hofstra, but Hofstra has a red flag for assist/TO ratio and Drexel plays at a very slow pace (62.3). in the end, if the spread in Ga St/NE rises to 4+, that's a potential candidate, but if not, no keep-up games today.

Always enjoy your threads Biff Tee, keep-up games is an interesting angle, BOL going forward.

[BiffTFinancial]

early over leans

Ga St/NE over 118'
WVU/Marshall over 134'
Indiana/UNL over 131
(all 3 have potential even though not keep-up games)

Akron/Buffalo over 135
La Salle/Temple over 143'

gonna have to sharpen my pencil today. big card. also, like last night, i have something Thursday night that will keep me out and unable to play 2Hs, so want to have a good night tonight and maximize the opportunities presented by this big card.

[BiffTFinancial]

Always enjoy your threads Biff Tee, keep-up games is an interesting angle, BOL going forward.

thank you, Redscot, good to see you, pal. BOL to you today.

[Rick22]

Won't repeat all that's been said Biff. Good Luck Today.

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 1.18.2012
3* Drake/Southern Illinois over 140
2* Texas/Kansas State 1H under 64

[BiffTFinancial]

missed the boat on New Mexico, why didn't i book that earlier at -8' or -9.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* La Salle/Temple over 145

Wednesday 1.18.2012 updated card
3* Drake/Southern Illinois over 140
2* La Salle/Temple over 145
2* Texas/Kansas State 1H under 64

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Xavier -6' (-103)

upgrading La Salle/Temple over from 2* to 3*

Wednesday 1.18.2012 updated card
3* Xavier -6' (-103)
3* La Salle/Temple over 145
3* Drake/Southern Illinois over 140
2* Texas/Kansas State 1H under 64

BOL to all tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

one more

1* Marshall +4 (-105)

Wednesday 1.18.2012 updated card
3* Xavier -6' (-103)
3* La Salle/Temple over 145
3* Drake/Southern Illinois over 140
2* Texas/Kansas State 1H under 64
1* Marshall +4 (-105)

BOL to all tonight.

[alamo]

Thank you Khalif Wyatt

Great start to the night Biff !

[BiffTFinancial]

Thank you Khalif Wyatt Great start to the night Biff !

no kidding. love that guy right now.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Texas/Kansas State 2H over 74

when i'm wrong, i say i'm wrong.

[alamo]

Is that for the 2h Biff ?

[BiffTFinancial]

Is that for the 2h Biff ?

oops, yes, sorry, 2H over 74. just edited it. thanks for noticing. let's get it.

[Mybologne]

3* Texas/Kansas State 2H over 74 when i'm wrong, i say i'm wrong.

GL... I like it but didn't get it in on time!!!

[alamo]

Drake goes over. Only justice after that horrific beat the other night in LSU game. Fantastic night Biff !