Filmoz's NCAA BB 2011-2012

[paranoyd androyd]

LATE PLAY ALERT

UCLA (1st 10 Mins) 2nd Half -3 -110 3x
UCLA 2nd Half -4.5 -110 3x

how were you graded on that 1st 10 min bet for 2H? espn says they were only up 19 pts at the 10 min mark and then up 22 at the 9:58 mark. they needed to be up 20 at exactly the 10 min mark, right? was that 3 in the air prior to the clock reading 10:00?

[thebigd1]

What are you guys using to figure out these 10 min bests?

[TrajaD]

Why is everybody posting their plays in here. Trying to get a little bit famous perhaps?

[Filmoz]

Yesterday's results updated to include the two late UCLA plays:

11/28/11

Tennessee -4 -104 3x L
Tennessee -3 -107 4x L
Akron +10.5 -105 3x L
Xavier +4 -107 3x W
Xavier (1st 10 Min) 2nd Half ML -105 2x W
Xavier 2nd Half +.5 -110 2x W
UCLA (1st 10 Mins) 2nd Half -3 -110 3x L
UCLA 2nd Half -4.5 -110 3x W

4-4-0, -3.88x

YTD 85-65-4, +55.47x

[Filmoz]

how were you graded on that 1st 10 min bet for 2H? espn says they were only up 19 pts at the 10 min mark and then up 22 at the 9:58 mark. they needed to be up 20 at exactly the 10 min mark, right? was that 3 in the air prior to the clock reading 10:00?

They go by what the scoreboard says at the moment the clock hits 10:00. Awesome to see UCLA get the cover two seconds too late, lol. Oh well, we pushed on the UCLA plays.

[rcjiii]

They go by what the scoreboard says at the moment the clock hits 10:00. Awesome to see UCLA get the cover two seconds too late, lol. Oh well, we pushed on the UCLA plays.

I took the second half bet on UCLA at -4. Looked a little shaky in that last minute as they put the scrubs in and Pepperdine got it down to a 23 point deficit.

[Capybara]

Of course I called it a night about 2 minutes before the UCLA 2H play (no 10-mt plays on Bookmaker so that would've been a win for me, not a push). I swear I only miss winners!

Anyway, let's get a victory song tonight, 'Moz! I feel a great day coming, do you??

In retrospect, the Tenn play had trap written all over it -- disappointed in myself for ignoring that, and congrats to those who laid off!

Now let's get 'em!

[Filmoz]

Of course I called it a night about 2 minutes before the UCLA 2H play (no 10-mt plays on Bookmaker so that would've been a win for me, not a push). I swear I only miss winners!

Anyway, let's get a victory song tonight, 'Moz! I feel a great day coming, do you??

In retrospect, the Tenn play had trap written all over it -- disappointed in myself for ignoring that, and congrats to those who laid off!

Now let's get 'em!

Yeah, I'm feeling a little foolish for having missed that one as well. I usually try to just cap my games consistently and ignore line movements and trends, but sometimes line movements are so telltale that you can't ignore them. I think I discounted the Maui hangover and the home court advantage Oak got from their small but packed arena. In those games you are usually flipping a coin over which team will take the lead within the first few minutes. If the road favorite gets off to a good start, they are likely to be able to quiet the crowd and maintain their lead. But if the underdog home team gets out to a lead first, as happened last night, then you know the rest: kids raining 3's, drawing charges, getting fast break plays, all the momentum going their way while the pumped up home crowd goes nuts on national tv.

[UK_gixxer]

Of course I called it a night about 2 minutes before the UCLA 2H play (no 10-mt plays on Bookmaker so that would've been a win for me, not a push). I swear I only miss winners!

Anyway, let's get a victory song tonight, 'Moz! I feel a great day coming, do you??

In retrospect, the Tenn play had trap written all over it -- disappointed in myself for ignoring that, and congrats to those who laid off!

Now let's get 'em!

isn't it funny how all the signs are there...yet we see the line and we think "holy sh*t! Throw down on that!" I think those of us who gamble on sports have a bit of an impulsive side, some more than others, and the bookies know how to exploit this...I mean I felt extremely weird about this line, but pounded it anyways....but when I saw 78% of the public was on this one I knew something was wrong. Want to know the worst thing about this line? I made a rather large Teaser with TN teasing it down to +6.5....and TN lost that for me too.

[Filmoz]

This is why I'm having trouble with the Mich/UVA line right now.

[gba]

Filmoz are u gonna take a look at that houston/lsu game?

[Filmoz]

For now I'm going with

UVA -3 107 4x

[UK_gixxer]

Yeah, I'm feeling a little foolish for having missed that one as well. I usually try to just cap my games consistently and ignore line movements and trends, but sometimes line movements are so telltale that you can't ignore them. I think I discounted the Maui hangover and the home court advantage Oak got from their small but packed arena. In those games you are usually flipping a coin over which team will take the lead within the first few minutes. If the road favorite gets off to a good start, they are likely to be able to quiet the crowd and maintain their lead. But if the underdog home team gets out to a lead first, as happened last night, then you know the rest: kids raining 3's, drawing charges, getting fast break plays, all the momentum going their way while the pumped up home crowd goes nuts on national tv.

Filmoz, a -3 unit night here and there ain't nothin, don't sweat it- you're doing us a huge favor. I do have a question though-

I've been tailing you since the beginning, and it seems to me like in the beginning when you valued your plays (in terms of units 2x, 3x, ect) you seemed to be much more consistent with winning the larger unit plays and losing the smaller unit plays- obviously since you are up over 50 units. But lately, and I'm certainly not hating by any means, it seems much more spontaneous...you hit the smaller plays and larger plays inconsistently of each other...obviously the leg work for capping the games is there because you are hitting a nice W/L record, but I'm just wondering if you haven't spend as much time valuing your plays as you used to or if something has changed since you are now up a nice chunk of units?

Either way, I'm with ya brotha...but I think one thing that might help you out is to pick a game of the night for yourself, and value you it accordingly (like 4x or 5x units) and don't allow any other games to be valued that high (hence you REALLY feel strong about it) unless you are chasing somewhat to cover a loss.

Any thoughts?

[Filmoz]

UVA -3 -107 is now 5x

[Filmoz]

Filmoz, a -3 unit night here and there ain't nothin, don't sweat it- you're doing us a huge favor. I do have a question though-

I've been tailing you since the beginning, and it seems to me like in the beginning when you valued your plays (in terms of units 2x, 3x, ect) you seemed to be much more consistent with winning the larger unit plays and losing the smaller unit plays- obviously since you are up over 50 units. But lately, and I'm certainly not hating by any means, it seems much more spontaneous...you hit the smaller plays and larger plays inconsistently of each other...obviously the leg work for capping the games is there because you are hitting a nice W/L record, but I'm just wondering if you haven't spend as much time valuing your plays as you used to or if something has changed since you are now up a nice chunk of units?

Either way, I'm with ya brotha...but I think one thing that might help you out is to pick a game of the night for yourself, and value you it accordingly (like 4x or 5x units) and don't allow any other games to be valued that high (hence you REALLY feel strong about it) unless you are chasing somewhat to cover a loss.

Any thoughts?

Thanks for your input, but at this point I'm chalking it up to variance. Although I admittedly chase sometimes, I don't think that has much to do with it. I'm not gonna go back thru my record at the moment, but off the top of my head I feel like the spontaneous large chase bets have won and lost about evenly and pretty much cancel out. Otherwise, I try to make my plays consistently and put units down accordingly. Obviously the results I was getting early on were great, hitting a ton of the higher unit plays, but I'm still pretty happy with how things are going.

[allidoiswin89]

Need to do more research but a quick glance at the lines on break has me confused on the Iowa/Clemson line...seems to good to be true.

[gba]

UVA -3 -107 is now 5x

still a go at 3.5?

[Filmoz]

still a go at 3.5?

Yessir.

[panikpoker]

Need to do more research but a quick glance at the lines on break has me confused on the Iowa/Clemson line...seems to good to be true.

iowa +1 is the play here carver will be rocking but hold on till game time i think the line will move a bit

[Ktown]

Moz, that victory song is on tonight. Good luck!

[DaOutlaw1x]

I may be the only person on this site that is on Duke, but Duke +7.5 for me along with films plays that are posted already.

[gba]

Yessir.

locked in at 3

[Ktown]

iowa +1 is the play here carver will be rocking but hold on till game time i think the line will move a bit

Iowa at -1 now. (pinny and greek)

[UK_gixxer]

Thanks for your input, but at this point I'm chalking it up to variance. Although I admittedly chase sometimes, I don't think that has much to do with it. I'm not gonna go back thru my record at the moment, but off the top of my head I feel like the spontaneous large chase bets have won and lost about evenly and pretty much cancel out. Otherwise, I try to make my plays consistently and put units down accordingly. Obviously the results I was getting early on were great, hitting a ton of the higher unit plays, but I'm still pretty happy with how things are going.

Gothca. Don't get me wrong..I'm not necessarily singling out chase bets as much as I am 2x vs 3x unit bets. I'm not even counting the chasing bets when I bring this point up because it's obvious when a bet is a chase bet...but I agree at this point it's probably just variance.

With regards to the chase bets..I know a lot of people hate on chasing, but I'm fine with it. I chase some plays of yours that you do not chase just because even on a bad day the most you would lose if all your bets were even units would be juice.

Keep it up, Filmoz!

[Filmoz]

LSU +1.5 -106 2x
LSU ML +110 2x

[UK_gixxer]

UVA -3 -107 is now 5x

UVA is now at -2.5 with 79% of the public on the side of Michigan...I can actually see this line moving a tad lower right before the game starts....sharp money is on UVA boys, let's all avoid the mistakes of TN last night and nail this one!

[Ktown]

What books offer -2.5?

[Filmoz]

I think he meant to type -3.5. All I'm seeing is -3.5.

[allidoiswin89]

iowa +1 is the play here carver will be rocking but hold on till game time i think the line will move a bit

Haha carver hasn't been rocking on 6 years. I go to at least one game a year

[allidoiswin89]

Hate to do this filmoz but I'm buying the hook and taking Mich +4. This is MY PICK not filmoz's.

I'm sure I'll regret it and never go against u again haha

Also, im ssure I'll regret this as well but I am also taking Iowa pick as my 2nd official play today.

1 unit each. May have another play later on college basketball and hockey




2 units on duke +7
2 units on Duke ML

1 unit on m/l
Black hawks
Penguins

[UK_gixxer]

I think he meant to type -3.5. All I'm seeing is -3.5.

I definitely read -2.5, but it's not available anymore...sports insights had CRIS opening with -2.5, but shows all books now -3 or -3.5.

[dartmouthemcee]

I'm taking the points with MICH +3 - small play though

[Ktown]

Virginia just hit 4.5

[allidoiswin89]

To whom it concerns, I updated my post above to include all bets for tonight. Don't wanna clutter it up as I'm sure people will complain even about this post.

BOl to everyone. Excited for acc/big 10 challenge

[Filmoz]

Virginia just hit 4.5