Congrats for all of you that had AZ +9.5 (or, even better for everyone's wallets, the ML). I'm glad that you cashed your wagers. However, I stand by my statement. I would honestly like to see how OP got to Arizona as a two point favorite. Just because they won outright does not mean the line should have been Arizona -2. The two are mutally exclusive.
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Mad props man! I was going to bet on Arizona ML for huge and I let all these guys on this forum talk me out of it and these guys had me convinced Duke was a big matchup problem for Arizona. My gut was telling me Arizona though. Should listen to my gut next time. I lost $50 on Duke ML but I don't really care b/c I'm glad Duke lost. I have a futures bet for Ohio State to win it all and now that Duke is gone the road just got A LOT easier...Comment -
This thread deserves to be bumped up a few times a day. LOVE reading people bash this guy as he is cashing a huge underdog ML. Every single person who adamantly spoke against this guy should come back on here and write a formal apology, admitting they are pathetic.Comment -
WTG Dude. Personally, I thought you were nucking futs. I was actually laughing when I read your original post. I lost a wad on Duke. WTF I know?
Props to you. You made a great call, stood by it and won in the end.
Very nicely done in deed.
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gotta give props when i could not belive it. GOOD FUCKIN BET.Comment -
Why are you guys giving props to this loser? READ HIS PREVIOUS POSTS AND PREDICTIONS. He does this "lock" and "guarantee" thing all the time and loses 9 out of 10. Seriously, read his post history...Comment -
Great call, congratulations, but you did not really provide any insight other that a few well known basics?
SO how can I commit to a call like that?
I did not bet the game, did not like either side... would Duke come out and get lead like they did with Michigan (15 pts) then ease up? Or pour it on? Was AZ lucky against Texas, a team that had faded down the stretch, whereas Duke beat a hot team... Michigan played VERY well down the stretch. I stayed away.
Again, congratulations, great call on ML, wow, but you provided very little rationale, so how can a person go with your call?Comment -
Great bet, AZ looked like a title contender last night.Comment -
very nice call.
when i first saw this post I told my buddy that someone is guaranteeing AZ beats duke and he just laughed....to be honest so did i.
I had a decent sized bet on AZ +9.5 because I did think it was going to be close but that duke would win....
So all in all VERY NICE CALL!!
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very nice call.
when i first saw this post I told my buddy that someone is guaranteeing AZ beats duke and he just laughed....to be honest so did i.
I had a decent sized bet on AZ +9.5 because I did think it was going to be close but that duke would win....
So all in all VERY NICE CALL!!
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Nice called on the Duke game. I myself pick DUKE. Dam them. NIce called again!!!!
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thank you everyone. my local only takes spread bets and im currently lacking in funds so i only won 300 off it, but its better than nothing. now the game is over, i feel i can tell you why arizona was the pick. basically, a combination of the situation and online brackets. the game was at 7 o clock AZ time, 10 o clock NC time. the game ended at around midnight in NC, which is when the Duke guys are usually sleeping. Derrick Williams is like a breed of paul pierce and lamar odom and kyle singler might as well have been 5' 10" because his length means nothing against someone equally long with that much skill and athleticism. as far as the brackets go, i looked before the Syr/Marq game and several of the top brackets on ESPN and Yahoo had both marquette beating syracuse and arizona beating duke in the sweet 16. i take a lot of stock in this because every year 2 or 3 people happen to be spot on with brackets. to the guy who said the line shouldnt have been ari -2, you are the reason vegas thrives thoroughly year in and year out. just because you know 10 guys on duke and only 1 on arizona doesnt mean they dont have top recruits and momentum. to the guy who said i make guarantees all the time, if you notice theyre in caps and i spell aaron rodgers "airin rogers" and usually tell people that betting favorites of 95% are "locks". they are jinx threads. im a strong believer in jinx threads but that is mainly for football. i just needed this thread to win 20 bucks off my friend and try to help a few people out. that game was never in doubt. had the line been duke-5 to duke -8, i would have hesitated, but a line that big meant vegas wanted people to think duke was lock of the year. they got skip bayless and apparently a lot of other people. that's basically the explanation, thanks again for those who congratulated meComment -
i will be looking at brackets and attempting to fade the popular pick in uconn/ari but my main pick tonight is KANSAS minus whatever you get them at......the first 10 point underdog won outright when noone believed in them in arizona. now, everyone thinks richmond has a shot against a kansas team who will play ohio st in the final. play kansas. good luckComment -
Wish I found this thread sooner than 5 minutes ago. Then again I probably would not have believed it. Because like you said these "guarantee threads" are a dime a dozen here at SBR. Congrats on sticking to it and proving nearly everyone wrong.
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Hey, you won, but the info above is not very solid handicapping.
The only significant thing is the three hour time zone issue, which we all knew was a factor to be considered.
Again, Duke had just run up Michigan 15 pts before taking their foot off the gas pedal, and barely won, but Michigan was a HOT team. AZ barely beat, and was somewhat lucky to beat, a COLD, dysfunctional Texas team that was in a 6 or 7 game death spiral.
I think you just pulled one out of your ass, good pick, but I do not think what you have cited is top notch handicapping, and your version of Vegas is hysterical, it shoulda been AZ -2, but Vegas made it Duke -9 so everyone would jump on Duke.
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Nice call bro, woulda called you crazy before the game started.Comment -
kansas and unc look good tonight but no guarantees, just my opinions. arizona moneyline was a guarantee people. everyone saying it isnt good handicapping doesnt get why arizona won and why bookmakers had the line where they had it. think about it, if duke was only -3, wouldnt you say "wow they really think arizona will win. i have to take a shot on the ML i guess!". notice how little people thought arizona had a chance because of the line. but kansas looks great, unc looks good, good luckComment -
i dont think i will lose another pick the rest of the tourney, fyiComment -
go through the forum and service plays. add up how many were on duke and how many were on arizona. or better yet, if you had walked into your work and asked 10 people what they thought would happen like i did, at least 7 would have said "DUKE BLOWOUT BRO HOLY SHIT"Comment -
I guess I'm just looking at the percentages; here's a good example:
FTR, why would Arizona only be +3 against Duke? I could see a +5 or 6, but to me, the books set that line high expecting to get Arizona action (kind of like Richmond tonight). Remember, their main objective is to attract $$$ from both sides. No one would take Arizona at +3; it'd be heavy on Duke.
I think the books were stunned by Duke losing SU.Comment -
It was a great call. I was sure Duke had that one.Comment -
nc, youre missing the point. arizona would never have been anything less than +7, but if they had been it would have thrown everybody off. books were happy letting everybody think coach k with 4 days to plan and kyrie irving would murder a no name arizona team. plus, the 10 point underdog role weighs heavily in arizonas favor. they have swagger duke does not have
by the way, ohio st -6 and vcu +4.5Comment -
If you give the public a lot of points, they'll take it more often than not.Comment -
Arizona played the best half of basketball they have played all year. They couldn't miss, got almost all the rebounds, and every bounce. Duke look lost and confused. Nolan Smith only having 8 points hurt. Arizona doesn't play like that on a normal basis. I would be suprised if they stay with UConn.Comment -
I'm glad I found that thread, thanks for another winner
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do u like az again going against uconn? what do you have for your line for that game?Comment -
UCONN 3 and 145Comment -
arizona +3.....like them to win by 9 or 10 but since i cant bet moneylines i will be betting this for 200 of the 300 i won on thursday. i would suggest those who play ML bets try to get arizona at +140 or more, it has great value. arizona too big and athletic, uconn too young and "calhouny", a word i made up to encapsulate all that i hate about jim calhouns "give the ball to the star or kick out for 3" philosophy. arizona will beat uconn up down low, badlyComment -
as far as my line for it, i dont have one like i did for the duke game. arizona should have been a favorite in that game but vegas could never do that. whatever team vegas made the favorite here would be the public darling. betting seems split, but message boards never lieComment -
No win for 'Zona, but still a nice call, congrats!Comment
