** 1H POD Texas -5 "" write-up

firehoyt · 02-28-11, 08:56 AM

Good write up but the 1H of it makes me nervous. KSU is on a roll right now. I know the public will be on KSU but still, they're playing good ball and Texas has had their exposed weaknesses exposed. Thanks for the writeup though. Your record on 1H is impeccable, therefore tailing is worth considering.

Vaioice · 02-28-11, 09:01 AM

Well I went over the basics... IMO if ur gonna break down a gale for the best value play, u have to put everything out there. Cant just list trends and stats favoring Texas only. If i can layout the pros/cons of both teams and still feel confident after my analysis then I know i made the right play. That's all it is, making the right play, we have no control in the results. Just read it again. And again u will see something completely different. It pieces itself together... This will be my biggest 1H wager this year.

-vai

aman86 · 02-28-11, 09:31 AM

it seems tempting but I'm just gonna roll with ksu for the game, just don't trust texas enough

ThingsFallApart · 02-28-11, 09:35 AM

Vaoice outstanding post. Texas does play very well in the first half and I can see them being up 7-9 with a max around 13.
In this land full of fade material I think I've found a poster who knows something about betting and the actually game of basketball.

spongerat · 02-28-11, 09:45 AM

are you saying texas 1h and kansas st 2h or game because they' will adjust and texas will meltdown?

Vaioice · 02-28-11, 09:50 AM

1H Tex -5... Bet only what u can afford to lOse

Originally posted by spongerat

are you saying texas 1h and kansas st 2h or game because they' will adjust and texas will meltdown?

-vai

spongerat · 02-28-11, 09:52 AM

how much do you think texas will be up by half? if its a ton then the 2h line will be close to pk and a better value than taking full game +10

BiffTFinancial · 02-28-11, 03:41 PM

nice write-up, this looks like the best play on the card to me too. BOL to you.

hatemybookie · 02-28-11, 03:55 PM

hey vai..what do you think about the dame/nova 1st half?...

BigTenBets10 · 02-28-11, 04:37 PM

I commend you for the great writeup, I wish you the best of luck. In my opinion; however, the best play for this game is to take the under at either 136 or 137. I don't trust K-State on the road to keep this game within 9, and I don't trust Texas to pull this one out with and win by 9. Way to risky to bet on the spread tonight for me. Good luck biting your nails tonight, if you are betting the spread you better drink a few beers to calm the nerves.

LolsMcwinsey · 02-28-11, 05:13 PM

bump

Vaioice · 02-28-11, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by BigTenBets10

I commend you for the great writeup, I wish you the best of luck. In my opinion; however, the best play for this game is to take the under at either 136 or 137. I don't trust K-State on the road to keep this game within 9, and I don't trust Texas to pull this one out with and win by 9. Way to risky to bet on the spread tonight for me. Good luck biting your nails tonight, if you are betting the spread you better drink a few beers to calm the nerves.

we have no control over the results, all we can do is attain as much info as we can and make a "prediction" based on that knowledge we've attained. I feel I've done all I could to display why Tex is the play in the 1H. What I can't account for is variance. I mean I hope I win. I put quite a bit of $$ on it. But really all we can do is watch... BoL to all.

-vai

fakeandthedrive · 02-28-11, 05:51 PM

Very nice. Gl

vitalyo · 02-28-11, 06:49 PM

Tnx for the write up

GL.

FR3SH like UgHH · 02-28-11, 06:55 PM

Horrible Play!

fenexusa · 02-28-11, 06:58 PM

good luck

greenshark11 · 02-28-11, 07:03 PM

kstate is the way to go here tongiht

bio_blitz · 02-28-11, 07:08 PM

Nice write up...
Texas has burned me a few times and ever since K St last 2 games I fear JP's beard.

awholelottalumps · 02-28-11, 07:38 PM

Makes sense to me as did Utah State did the other night as they were 8 point favorites 1st half vs Idaho in a revenge spot and lead by 16 at halftime so I can see Texas up by at least 8 at the half here.

ThingsFallApart · 02-28-11, 10:03 PM

Ah mate, tough one, I caved and took this and got burned :/

firehoyt · 02-28-11, 10:27 PM

This bet was a huge choke on my part. I was the first to reply to the post by saying KSU would be the play 1H but I went with a "record" instead of my gut. My fault, no one elses. But I still gotta learn to go with my gut instead of tailing a record. Hopefully we'll get it back. It was only money.

Tower · 02-28-11, 10:28 PM

Hopefully you didn't go too large.... I'm on Texas -8 (small) for the game.... not looking good either...

Vaioice · 03-01-11, 02:21 AM

may have lost the battle but the war wages on.... Sorry for those that tailed because of write-up.... I will post a winner tomorrow to make up for this. And then no more.

-vai

ND25 · 03-01-11, 05:52 AM

Originally posted by Vaioice

1H Texas -5

"Pullen is on a mission"....K-St is in "must win" situation...."Longhorns surrender 20pt lead in 2H meltdown"..."Wildcats cruise to easy victory after halftime adjustments"...

Last 5 games...
K-St margin of victory 8.6
Texas margin of victory 9.0
errr wait that doesn't look good for us...except 3 of K-St last 5 are @ home....misleading stats.

K-ST L3 1H away games
2/23 @ Nebraska 29-27 (K-ST +1 winner)
2/12 @ Colorado 23-21 (K-St PK winner)
2/5 @ Iowa St 44-40 (K-St -2 winner)
lol this doesn't help us much either....

Tex L3 1H @ home
2/22 vs Iowa St 35-26 (Tex -9.5 loser)
2/16 vs Okla St 36-25 (Tex -8.5 winner)
2/12 vs Baylor 38-22 (Tex -6.5 winner)
wait... this don't look good for us either....

Texas just lost in Nebraska, and K-St was able to come out with a convincing victory in Nebraska. I believe everything happens for a reason, Texas' 2H meltdown in Colorado, K-St's halftime adjustments...cruise to victory.... puts us in this "perfect scenerio". looking @ "similar" oppenents seems K-St has the advantage. Not only that, but now they're getting 9.5pts, thats just a bonus. If there is one thing that i've learned in betting sports is that if "1H K-St +5 is a lock" FADE IT.

Look between the #s
1H away K-St is outscored by 1
1H @ home Tex outscored opp. by 11.4
1H vs Conference
K-ST outscores opp. by 3.5
Tex outscores opp. by 11.2

K-St was +2 @Neb, +1 @Colorado
Tex was -6.5 @Neb, -6.5 @colorado
Theoretically..Texas is 8.5pts better than K-St? I think so....now add in home court....
boy are we getting a bargain.

I must admit that K-St has been playing great ball, beating Kansas,Mizzou, and Neb in Nebraska....they're a bit overvalued here. Texas losing 2 of last 4, and that late meltdown has bettors jumping bandwagons. Which is great for me (and anyone else tailing). If u watched that Mizzou/K-St game, the game was alot closer than the score says...and u can't compare Mizzou's D to the Longhorn's HOME D. which #16th in the nation giving up 59.2ppg. (K-St avg 64.2ppg on the road)
If u thought K-St was having a hard time containing Mizzou's road offense, wait till u see Tex HOME off. Juggernauts averaging 79.0ppg gonna have a field day vs Wildcats road Def which allows 68.8ppg. The Wildcats offense will also "struggle" more than they already do on the road, they're not gonna hit 39.1% of their FG's...Texas HOME D allows FG % against at 35.1%.

Although both teams are good basketball teams, K-St just does not belong in the same Tier as Texas does, and anyone who thinks the Wildcats do... do urself a favor, fill up ur tank b4 u go to the sportsbook...u aint gonna have nothin left after the game! Muahaha.... no really, HOME COURT will be key in this match-up, and i believe K-St road woes are not past them, facing a OFF/DEF Juggernaut @ home isn't gonna make it any better. 1H Texas -5 to the bank! U can thank me after the game.

-vai

a lil nugget from a friend -
TEXAS is 14-3 (+10.7 Units) against the 1rst half line after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 36.7, OPPONENT 27

hmm maybe sometimes when a team beats #2 and #20 in the nation they are just playing well?? K-State was preseason ranked #3 so they have good players. So now K-state has beaten #2, #20, and #5. Picking against them the next time??

vitalyo · 03-01-11, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Vaioice

may have lost the battle but the war wages on.... Sorry for those that tailed because of write-up.... I will post a winner tomorrow to make up for this. And then no more.

-vai

Not a big deal . It's always at your own risk ,so no need for an apologies .
Write ups always appreciated

.

Cheers GL.