Being from this area, I find this line very strange. I understand its on the road, but KU could have beaten KSU by 40 at home just a few weeks ago and KU has only gotten better since that game. KSU is also coming off heart breaking loss less than 48 hours ago on the road. These teams could not be further apart right now. I was guessing this line at 8 or 10 and half-time line of 5 or 6. There is no free money in gambling but this looks way too easy. I say KU covers this 9 out of 10 times. I may come out of retirement for this one. Anyone else?
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Explain emawComment -
Perhaps the thinking is that KSU has more of a homecourt advantage than most teams? I really don't know, but I agree that the line should have been about 8. I'm going to watch it today and see how it moves before making a play.Comment -
I hopped on this one first thing this morning at KU -3.5. The Jayhawks heve been playing weel lately and should roll over the Wildcats. Id say an 8 - 11 point win.Comment -
Instate rivalry and homecourt may not be enough here.Comment -
Im up a bunch this year in cbb by sticking to the "fade the public" theory. I dont care how "obvious a play is", yea i know all about how hot kansas is right now, so do the linesmakers...There is absolutley no way i would play a favorite that is getting POUNDED by anybody and everybody. I will not put my $$ in with their money ever..no way.I will gladly wait for the 6 or 6.5 before tip, and take KSTATE..wouldnt be suprised at all with an outrgiht win here...public plays have been winning this past week/weekend..that will end tonight, classic trap game and bookies and sportsbooks (and myself) will get back to their winning waysComment -
lucky 1g -how often have you been winning using "fade the public"?Comment -
"Every Man A Wildcat"Originally posted by RomanovComment -
I would normally agree with that logic, but i have watched pretty much every KU and KSU game this year and I just can't come up with many scenario's here that KSU covers, especially considering the situation with their game in CU being moved to 8 pm. These kids probably did not even sleep on Saturday, had their hearts crushed, and now have to play newly ranked #1 team who just had to go through the motions at home on Saturday. I just don't see it tonight. Maybe the only logic is KU is due for a sub-par game and really has had very few road games thus far. I just think KU is awful match up for KSU no matter where this is played. KSU is way too inconsistent and relies on their defense to pressure mediocre offenses. KU's offense thrives in pressure with back door cuts, transition, etc. Case in point, MU shot lights out against them and still lost by 15 last week.Originally posted by Lucky1gComment -
I see this game almost as I did AZ/AZ St (lines the same). I think the road fav covers rather easily.Comment -
Ive startd a "system" based around fading the public. i started tracking these plays a month ago.the system #'s are 69-48ats with public fade "dogs"...remember these games??? they were recent heavily bet ESPN games that had extremly lopsided action on the eventual loser...It's tough to bet against teams as hot as Kansas, but its much easier when ur moneys on the contrarian side..KSTATE for me tonight
#1. Seton Hall+12.5 W outright @Syracuse
#2. Providence+5.5 W outright vs Villanova
#3. Indiana+4 W outright vs Illinois
#4. Louisville+5.5 W outright @Uconn
#5. St. Johns+8 W outright vs Duke
#6. Iowa+4.5 W outright vs Michigan StateComment -
Originally posted by Lucky1g
"Fade the public?"
Who are you? I gotta try and help you.- You do not know who bet on a side, it could be a lot of pro gamblers, sydicates, so you do not even know who "the public" is!
- If you look at results that last several days, "the public" has been right (if you define "the public" as a team that > 55% of the bets were placed).
Losing strategy. It works randomly.
Handicapp the goddam game. Players, coaches, matchups, motivation, streaks, injuries, home court advantage, guards, forwards, trends...Comment -
Serbone, thanks for the help. This changes everything. goodluckComment -
Are you at college here? Going to the game tonight?Originally posted by ematComment -
No, just from the area and well out of school. I think the general consensus here locally is KSU is way over matched and what happened Saturday is only going to make matters worse. This KSU team has pretty much quit in every game it gets down by 10 or more. Home or not if KU gets up early its going to look very similar to what happened in Larry Town a few weeks ago. KSU only chance to keep this close is KU comes out cold. Considering they have 10-11 players they can run out there and KSU has no answers inside for the Morris twins, I doubt that is going to happen.Comment -
username is ematOriginally posted by Romanov
[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
I know what emaw stands for, but seeing as it is not a complete English sentence its meaning is ambiguous. Perhaps it means that every man owns a wildcat, and that could mean that every man uses a wildcat for sexual acts with the aid of perverse libations. I just don't understand "every man a wildcat". Indeed a comma is needed somewhere, as well as a verb. I have come to expect universities to understand the noun/verb tenement of language but I see this might be the exception.
And if the correct form is Every Man is a Wildcat, I find that to be wrong on three counts. First, if the word "a" is going to be used in the abbreviation, "is" must be included as well. EMIAW would be correct, as it also lends a cat's meowing sound when pronounced aloud. Secondly, not every man is a wildcat. Not even at K-State. Many graduate students have loyalties to their undergraduate universities and I believe I am correct when I say that generalities lead to genocide. Oh, and thirdly- I do not believe that discounting women is correct in this century. Perhaps K-State could get away with that at its birth of scholarship... when was that... but not now. Perhaps the slogan should be EPAW. And there again we have it, even that makes more sense than what K-State has wrought. At least EPAW relates to the mascotComment -
Every man a wildcat does make some sense in English, although a non-native English speaker might not think so.
In any case, where did you see emaw?[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
ok, then explain "Rock Chalk Jayhawk"???
What is Rock Chalk? Actually come to think of it, a Jayhawk is not even a real bird. A jayhawk is actually a reference to Kansas Raiders during the Civil War. Why they chose some odd looking bird to represent this makes very little sense. Maybe both schools are jacked up.Comment -
Should be a very close gameComment -
I had a drink with a friend, he was all pissed off, had BIG $ on the Steelers because "everyone" was on the Packers.Originally posted by Lucky1g
All week before the game he told me he liked the Packers, Rogers indoors, GB "D", WR's, defensive backs, Pitt had ??? OL, Ben banged up, Pitt thin at DB... but went the other way because he saw "the public", including locals, were on GB.
I actually do think that there is merit to the approach that you are taking with dogs... when most of the money is on significant (say, 4 pts or more) dogs, it seems to work to some extent.Comment -
I think rock chalk comes from the chalky limestone in Lawrence KS. And you are right, the Jayhawk comes from the free-staters at the time of the civil war.Originally posted by ematComment -
Watch the game tonight. You will see a bunch of hicks wearing emaw shirts and holding emaw signs. These are the same people who chanted "we own texas"Originally posted by yismanComment -
I would tend to agree as well, but books can get the number wrong from time to time. I think they see a decently talented team in KSU playing at home vs. their rival and think automatically that this game will be tight. The fact is this has not been a competitive rivalry for many years and when KSU has won or kept it close its because of special talent in Beasley or a weaker than usual Kansas team. I thought this Kansas team would struggle this year, but I think their past 5 or 6 games have been some of the best I have seen out of any KU team in recent history. I think everyone is also waiting on K-State to finally get it together and after watching them all year its not going to happen. Similar to Texas last year, this team just has not come together and there are serious moral issues right now. Martin's coaching style is one that either works great or can be absolutely awful when things don't go as planned. There is no happy medium here and I think its safe to say its going the other way this year. Its a risky style and not sustainable in my opinion.Originally posted by SerboneComment -
Agree its stupid. KSU does have one of the best records against Texas in Football and Basketball since the inception of the Big 12. For whatever reason, they step up in those games. What is the over/under on the number of times the announcers reference a "streak" related to the KSU/KU games? I am guessing it happens 5 times before tip and runs up to 20 before the game is done. KSU has a mental complex with KU right now. They honestly don't believe they can win this game and it will show tonight again.Originally posted by RomanovComment -
I agree that this is the only winning scenario for KSU. And I think the odds of it happening are very, very slim. KU has the best shooting percentage in the nation, at 52.3% (an astounding 55.9% in last three games) (by the way, Kansas State comes in at 215th, at 42.6%). This is not because Kansas has the greatest shooters in the world (they are very respectable in three point shooting percentage, and actually not great at all in free throw shooting percentage (by the way, significantly better than KState in both of those)). KU's stellar shooting percentage is because of the way they run their offense, and their defensive play, and their play under the basket. Basically, they get lots of very easy buckets. KState is not going to change that tonight.Originally posted by ematComment -
Absolutely correct. If anything the % gets better tonight because the way KSU plays defense. As I mentioned its an awful matchup even if KSU was playing well which they are not. I am pretty sure KU got about 10 dunks last game vs. KSU which drives home your point exactly.Originally posted by zephyrComment -
I'm not arguing the theory and I'm sure your numbers are accurate. But there are 48 times there when the public favor covered. I love fading the public, but sometimes you can't look past the talent differential, see Pittsburgh@WV last week and Texas@Texas A&M.Originally posted by Lucky1gComment -
Felling pretty good about K State+7 right know..of course Kansas may come out the second half and blow em out, but it sure isnt/wasnt ganna be as "easy" as most thought if they do..Kstate was the play tonightComment
