Will NOT be betting small road Favs anymore!

agharah1 · 02-04-11, 09:43 AM

If you're going to take nothing but home favs for now on, I recommend avoiding the Big East. Nobody there can win a home game. But I took a couple of the games you listed there this week. I made most of it back on Miami straight up (although with 28 turnovers they made me sweat it out), UCLA -3, and Tennessee -8 (another road fav, but not a small road fav).

Regul8er · 02-04-11, 10:03 AM

Ill be looking at alot of home dogs in the +1 to +5 range!

Regul8er · 02-04-11, 10:03 AM

Such as Niagara tonight

zanman822 · 02-04-11, 10:26 AM

Well Murray State was a 4 point road favorite last night and they won by 9. But usually your right its not safe to take road favorites they usually dont cash.

flocko76 · 02-04-11, 10:35 AM

I don't think you should take niagara. St peter's beat them by 20 2 weeks ago, niagara is the worst team in the league..

No coincidences · 02-04-11, 11:02 AM

Short road dogs and short home dogs are the way to go IMHO.

I think if a home team is -1/2/3 or a road team is -1/2/3, more often than not you're being set up.

slimpickins · 02-04-11, 11:18 AM

Regul8er: no offense but what you should do is take a week off and reassess after ; at the very least for NCAA.
You have been betting over your head and on a bad streak. Period of cool off is what you need to change your luck.
(not being a jerk I have been there and trying to give you honest advise)

Regul8er · 02-04-11, 12:01 PM

I appreciate it slim.....its exactly what I need. I'm betting like a freaking idiot.

Regul8er · 02-07-11, 01:50 PM

My criteria list is getting quite large, as now I will only even breakdown lines from 2 conference (Big Ten and Big East)

I feel the other conferences I have been studying have been way too unpredictable. Missouri Valley has destroyed me, Pac-10 is extremely erractic, ACC seems to be full of unmotivation.

Big Ten and Big East are the only conferences I have been hitting at a good clip, probably because I watch the most games from these conferences. Makes me feel good though, that I won't get lost in big cards.

HoulihansTX · 02-07-11, 01:52 PM

Regul8er you would be an excellent capper if you would just settle down.

Remember its just a game.

Think clearly, and have simplistic answers for complicated questions.

AbeFroman · 02-07-11, 01:58 PM

Below is the link to a dogs and faves system I've been tracking that is profiting since December 21st

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/931245-testing-out-system-week-2-57-last-week.html

Regul8er · 02-07-11, 02:01 PM

HoulihansTX, I appreciate the kind words....really I do!

You have me nailed to a tee..........I take losses way too personal, I hate losing when I have a good read, but I need to understand that a good read or a good number doesn't necessary mean a win!

It's funny because I do pretty well financially outside of sports betting, but I get really frustrated when I can't turn a small profit, or even have to dish a little bit out. I know nobody finishes ahead week in and week out....not sure why I take it so personal. It is just a game, and should be treated that way.

What's killing me is the quantity of bets I've been making, and mostly because I'm chasing. Last week I wagered 68 times, 43 two weeks ago and 46 three weeks ago......That's a free pass to the poor house, luckily I haven't gotten crushed. Plus, my wife isn't too fond of me constantly checking scores on my phone, which I can't blame her at all for.

Sometimes I try to start my day out good, by betting tennis and soccer (sports I don't have a clue about) and fall behind. Then I hit end up hitting 2 of my 3 favorite plays, but couple that in with A-10, Southern League and 2nd half midnight bets, and I finish behind.

I'm really going to try a more simplistic approach, and try to stay between 10-20 games per week tops. Only Big East or Big Ten game tonight is Pitt/WVU, and I'm too conflicted thinking it'll come down to the last minute, basically making the game a coinflip.

I will only be playing 1, maybe 2 NBA games tonight, and that is it.

EasyCover · 02-07-11, 03:07 PM

bet the board

bet the board

Originally posted by Regul8er

HoulihansTX, I appreciate the kind words....really I do!

You have me nailed to a tee..........I take losses way too personal, I hate losing when I have a good read, but I need to understand that a good read or a good number doesn't necessary mean a win!

It's funny because I do pretty well financially outside of sports betting, but I get really frustrated when I can't turn a small profit, or even have to dish a little bit out. I know nobody finishes ahead week in and week out....not sure why I take it so personal. It is just a game, and should be treated that way.

What's killing me is the quantity of bets I've been making, and mostly because I'm chasing. Last week I wagered 68 times, 43 two weeks ago and 46 three weeks ago......That's a free pass to the poor house, luckily I haven't gotten crushed. Plus, my wife isn't too fond of me constantly checking scores on my phone, which I can't blame her at all for.

Sometimes I try to start my day out good, by betting tennis and soccer (sports I don't have a clue about) and fall behind. Then I hit end up hitting 2 of my 3 favorite plays, but couple that in with A-10, Southern League and 2nd half midnight bets, and I finish behind.

I'm really going to try a more simplistic approach, and try to stay between 10-20 games per week tops. Only Big East or Big Ten game tonight is Pitt/WVU, and I'm too conflicted thinking it'll come down to the last minute, basically making the game a coinflip.

I will only be playing 1, maybe 2 NBA games tonight, and that is it.

BiffTFinancial · 02-07-11, 05:29 PM

as a Big Ten apologist, i'll add this. someone told me this a long time ago, and it's generally served me pretty well: road chalk is bad, road chalk in the Big Ten is worse, and road chalk in the Big Ten on a Saturday is death.

Regul8er · 02-08-11, 09:29 AM

Stuck to my guns last night, and it really paid off. Laid off my WVU lean, as Pitt's rebounding differential really had me worried, and this was the difference in the game.

Had great reads on Charlotte +4.5 and Cleveland +14.5....and they both cashed. Nothing like keeping your plays to a minimum, avoiding late action, and getting the week started on the right foot.

flocko76 · 02-08-11, 09:48 AM

regarding short road dogs, creighton @ drake (+1 1/2) and northern iowa @ evansville (-1 1/2) tonight seem like the road favs have a hard time winning on the road. Creighton is 7-6 in conference, 3-4 on road, Drake is 5-8 in conference, 4-3 home. Northern iowa is 9-4 in conference, 3-3 road, evansville is 7-6 in conference, 5-1 home.

Regul8er · 02-08-11, 12:29 PM

MVC has destroyed me this year....and I normally would be ALL over Drake and Evansville, but then something crazy would happen, and the struggling road teams would come out strong. Never fails for me in the MVC. 1-10 ATS, and refuse to try again, haha!

flocko76 · 02-08-11, 10:56 PM

drake and evansville both win