Trying something different Saturday

[No coincidences]

I'm going to track this: I'm of the belief that a lot of short home dogs have been covering this season, but a lot of short home faves have been losing. So I'm going to take every single-possession home dog and fade every single-possession home fave....

Short home dogs (play):
Valpo +2.5 vs. Butler
Arizona State +2 vs. UCLA
Texas Tech +2 vs. Oklahoma State
FIU +1.5 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Pepperdine +1 vs. San Francisco
St. Peters +1 vs. Rider
Davidson +3 vs. C of C
Weber State +2.5 vs. Northern Colorado
Montana State +2.5 vs. Montana

Short home faves (fade):
Clemson vs. Florida State +2
Connecticut vs. Louisville +3
George Washington vs. St. Louis +2.5
Nebraska vs. Texas A&M +1
Marquette vs. Syracuse +2
Mississippi vs. Tennessee +2
Hofstra vs. Drexel +1.5
Utah vs. Colorado State +1
TCU vs. Air Force +2
Denver vs. North Texas +2.5
Central Florida vs. UAB +2
Marshall vs. Memphis +2.5
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Troy +1.5
Charlotte vs. LaSalle +2.5
Loyola-Marymount vs. Santa Clara +1
Tulsa vs. UTEP +1
San Jose State vs. Fresno State +2.5
UC Davis vs. Cal-Irvine +2.5
UT-Chattanooga vs. Elon +1

We'll see how it goes.

[Hall2Collie]

I thought about this idea too just simply because of how unpredictable college ball can be

At least you have the added value in a close game in this situation

[PRiiMO]

check this out
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/trends/league/season.html

[No coincidences]

My actual afternoon leans:

Mississippi State +6
UConn ML -165 (though I really don't like that this is only -3)
Marquette ML -130
Florida State +2.5
Texas A&M +1
Valparaiso +2.5

The last three fit the system above; UConn and Marquette would be going against it, though I'm only playing the ML.

[runnershane14]

good luck to you

[flocko76]

IMHO FWIW I think your theory is flawed from the start. It's like you're just throwing stuff against the wall and seeing what sticks.

[Joe Dogs]

Intersesting...Good luck

[Boxer300]

Flocko can you explain why his theory is flawed from the start? Thanks

[flocko76]

Because he's taking EVERY game where the line is 3 or less and he's playing the underdog based on his "belief". Any correlation is pure coincidence. Unless you have money to just "give away" you would be foolish to play all these games. So you still need to do work picking which games to play. #moneymanagement

[VicVega91]

Good luck today, will be interested to see how it turns out for you !!

[Straight Cash]

Good luck man, I've been thinking the same myself.

[GoMaryland]

This really makes no sense...why are you breaking it down as home short dogs win and home short faves lose? Why don't you just say that all short dogs win? Or all short faves lose? What does the being at home have to do with anything if you think about it?

[mandude]

GL today NC. You have a lot of plays today. Hopefully you're not putting too much of your bankroll on them. You should start tracking this for the rest of the season & also next season just to see if your theory is profitable.

[pacocn]

can it be this simple?

[Wilforth]

I'm surprised to see that people really like Texas A&M. That's just the kind of games they lose. I think they'll win the 1H as they often do and then collapse in the 2H.

My plays today:
Marquette/Syracuse OVER 146.5
BYU -3

[Big Dave's Picks]

I myself have thought about this similar situation for the last couple weeks. It seems alot of home dogs have been covering and I have been awfully hesitant playing home dogs or homes favs with a short number. The value is what I have been trying to determine the most. I appreciate the post, BOL to you today, Big Dave

[Crayzee]

if your gonna do this one thing you should really do is
bet the games no sooner than 5 mins to game time
all games close to pick-em fluctuate greatly
do not bet these games at 11 am est
also if any games go to pick-em bet the visitor

[No coincidences]

Because he's taking EVERY game where the line is 3 or less and he's playing the underdog based on his "belief". Any correlation is pure coincidence. Unless you have money to just "give away" you would be foolish to play all these games. So you still need to do work picking which games to play. #moneymanagement

I'm just tracking it for now.

[No coincidences]

This really makes no sense...why are you breaking it down as home short dogs win and home short faves lose? Why don't you just say that all short dogs win? Or all short faves lose? What does the being at home have to do with anything if you think about it?

Because from the games I've looked at this season, short home faves are a trap more often that not. Whenever I bet on a team who's +1-3 at home, though, it seems to be profitable. I'm going to see if this theory holds up starting today.

[rallymonkey]

My actual afternoon leans:

Mississippi State +6
UConn ML -165 (though I really don't like that this is only -3)
Marquette ML -130
Florida State +2.5
Texas A&M +1
Valparaiso +2.5

The last three fit the system above; UConn and Marquette would be going against it, though I'm only playing the ML.

FL ST and A&M...what are you liking about these games? Are they just games u picked out of your experiment today? I remember you saying to never take the ranked dog vs the unranked favorite?

I tend to fade the ranked dogs, so I'll be on the huskers today. Just wondering what youre seeing that i may be missing. GL today man.

[Glitch]

i like this a lot. i think you will experience positive results and i have also noticed +2ish comes through often.

[No coincidences]

Unofficially 9-8-1 for the short road dogs, which I suppose can be expected when you're backing road teams.

7-2 for the short home dogs, though --

[sweethook]

nice,gl

[drfunkmaster]

nicely done!!!

[Snowball]

keep trackin this..
the reasoning behind it is sound..
but we need a bigger sample size

[flocko76]

If you think about it, when the home team is a short dog, the coach could motivate his team better with "no one believes in us." when they are a short favorite, they might not really be better than the road dog, but get some points because they are at home. Also, because there are so many CBB games, its nearly impossible for vegas to set a good line for these lower tiered teams. for example, Montana st vs montana and UT chattanooga vs elon.

[pacocn]

how about a very slight favorite -1 or -2? at home

[ebbearsfb1]

short home dogs today.... i see ga tech + 2

short road dogs


tail or fade
wisconsin milwaukee vs. wright state +3
umass vs. rhode island +1
south bama vs ul lafetteye + 3
marist vs. manhattan +2


could play all 5 on the money and hope to go 3 and 2

[ebbearsfb1]

i just looked 6 straight up winners, 3 straight up losers, only arizona state lost but covered...