Towson +20

[GemSportsPicks]

Wager details for ticket number 35463377-1:

Wager Type: Spread (or run line)
Wager Status:Pending
Risk / To Win Amount:: 1,400.00 / 1,000.00 (nul )
Accepted 1/27/2011 10:16:10 AM - PST


Item #1 Basketball NCAA 1/27/2011
4:00:01 PM
Towson

Spread +20 Buying 1½ Pt(s) -140 for Game

[xelance]

good luck, I am on that also at +19. get em Towson

[GemSportsPicks]

Can't take complete credit for this one, I will site Goaline Bobs work with this pick... Years ago, I did something similiar based on streaks, except it wasn't team covering streaks but rather gamblers streaks, it still does alright.... If you go on Wagerline go on there survivor streak game, you go against anyone that has gotten to 15 in a row, there aren't many plays but when there are they are golden.... IF you are someone that likes more plays, take a sample of Top 100, when people have similar picks you add them when they have different you subtract, after analyzing top 100, teams that have value of 15 or higher you go against.

Thanks Bob this pick is 50% yours. hahaha

[saints1856]

Best of luck... I see they just played VCU to a close game (and they are first in conference), now they are going on the road. I hope they keep it close for ya

[GemSportsPicks]

Thanks as I said this is a little bit GoalineBob's anti streak on Mason... Who have been hot, a little bit to much points I believe, and if you look Mason has only bit one team at home by more then 20 all year, all their real blowout victories have come on the road. Home cooking doesn't do them well, hopefully it has them fat and lazy today.

[Michael Ferro]

I remember this, I haven't looked at this for quite awhile, I forget why, it does work often. thanks for tip I'm going with you.

[GemSportsPicks]

Yea i had figured out the streak thing about 3 years ago, I made a boat load, I'm talking it hit like 80% for 3 months, then I made the mistake of telling a friend, he told another friend and soon I started to see it posted everywhere, as soon as this happened, it went very cold for the next month, it was still way ahead overall, but I to abandoned it... Now I just check on it every once in a while to confirm or deny a play... I should have listened to it last night because Nova had a value of 32.

[LockPickMaster]

Yea i had figured out the streak thing about 3 years ago, I made a boat load, I'm talking it hit like 80% for 3 months, then I made the mistake of telling a friend, he told another friend and soon I started to see it posted everywhere, as soon as this happened, it went very cold for the next month, it was still way ahead overall, but I to abandoned it... Now I just check on it every once in a while to confirm or deny a play... I should have listened to it last night because Nova had a value of 32.

What other games does this streak formula fit for tonight.

[firehoyt]

I'm kinds lost to the way it works. Would ya mind giving a relatively detailed writeup on how it works?! I'll give ya my points Gem.

[Tklane21]

I'm on this one thanks to bob's streak system as well. Didn't buy points on it because even at -18.5 (-102) it's got plenty of value.

[GemSportsPicks]

Well towson play, as I said it credit to GoalineBob and his work... not mine... The streak thing I mentioned that I stopped following but for those that would like here it is.

Go to wagerline, covers, whatever they are calling themselves these days.

1. Pull up survivor streak contest leaderboard...
2 Starting with highest streak click on pending (It is best to do this analysis about an hour before the game you like will be starting because, some people will not have any pending plays.)
3. As you click on pending see how many the have in a row, so lets say first place has 13 and syracuse, so that is a value of 13 on syracuse that you write down... next player has 10 in a row on Bobcats that is value of 10 on bobcats... You go through the first 100 players, or however many you choose to come up with firgures... Top 100 seemed to work best.
4. Once you have everything written down with values, then you play add subtract game, so lets so it Nova and Providence last night, you go through you see Nova 11 nova 10 nova 8 nova 6 and Providence 8... You add like and subtract different so nova is value of 35 Providence is 8, nova has true value of 27... The number I had set that was signifigant value to take was 15, but 20 and up is even better. So then Providence would become a strong play. Because if gambling is almost always 50 50 principle, and players that are that Hot all have Nova they are due to be wrong...

It is pretty simple and i don't suggest anyone blindly following this, but it is definitely a good tool. There is a more advanced, version for the math geniuses out there but to be honest its a lot of extra work and the results were almost identitcal so it really isn't even worth it.

[tiger_bait]

go towson

[GemSportsPicks]

Yes exactly Tiger, I don't want to take anyone off there play, but that is essentially how it should be used... If Towson hits, I will probably be taking Indiana, I started off like them and this then reinforced it.

[firehoyt]

Tossed ya the points. Thanks. Seems like alot of work lol. Where do people come up with these things?! I'd have never thought to do something like this. Guess it all has to do with probability. But basing a play simply on how many people are on it or the amount of wins they have seems like a very arbitrary way of doing things. I'll give it a shot tomorrow and see how it does. Thanks for the info!!

[PharaohUB]

You won with blind dumb luck. That system makes no sense. If I flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 50 times, it still has a 50% of coming up heads if I flip it a 51st time. I thinK I read about this as one of the problems with a gamblers mind. They believe in things like being due, and luck and all that.

Oh well, whatever works for you I guess.

[GemSportsPicks]

You won with blind dumb luck. That system makes no sense. If I flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 50 times, it still has a 50% of coming up heads if I flip it a 51st time. I thinK I read about this as one of the problems with a gamblers mind. They believe in things like being due, and luck and all that.

Oh well, whatever works for you I guess.

Hahaha gotta love the ignorant, take a probability class... If you flip a coin 100 times and it comes out head 50 in a row, you are right the odds of the coin, coming up heads or tails on the 51st throw is still 50 50, but we are talking about long term expectation.

I keep it really simple and won't get into Binomial Probablity and Pascals triangle, because then I'll lose a few people yourself including I'm sure. So simple probabilty fair coin or picking a game both 2 possible outcomes heads tails or cover no cover.

Odds of covering .5 correct, for a single event. So what are odds of covering 2 in a row?

Probabilty of same outcome happening twice is expressed as .5 Squared, so (.5)(.5)= .25 or a 1/4 chance of hitting two in a row.

Odds of 3 (.5)(.5)(.5) .125, so basically 12.5 percent of the time you will hit 3 in a row... This then goes on and on becoming increasing harder and harder to achieve the same outcome.

Gambling unless you have inside info, or have found some edge is the exact same thing as the coin, so yes by going against streaks, espcially when you are combining the collective consciousness of those with the streaks by matching them up with others on streaks that are agreeeing with certain games creates a very positive excpectation, in the long run to go against them.

So before you start claiming dumb luck do some homework.

[GemSportsPicks]

For those that want to watch its on GOMASON.com. Good luck all, lets start off the day right.

[Regul8er]

Im rootin for ya Gem......but this just seems like the ultimate degen game that would have gotten completely lost in the mix if it had a 7pm tip.

[GemSportsPicks]

Regul8er perhaps you are right, I looked at this last night, was thinking about it... I like to take one thing two at most at any given time slot, so almost any time there is early game, I will try to come up with play on it... I like the dog with points almost due to the delay, GM all fired up for game last night, then they have to play a day game, 20 is an awful lot of points. Espcially with almost no crowd to fuel the big runs.

[Tower]

thanks for the pick and the link, "Dad" is on this one too. Cash Money!!

[GemSportsPicks]

Goalinebob, really brought my attention to this game, gotta give him all the credit, I like what he has going on over there... He is capper that is putting in good hard quality work at the moment.

[tatddy]

GM 15-0 run to end the half. Well that sucked.

[GemSportsPicks]

That it did, wasn't even all Mason, Towson didn't score for 6 minutes... Hopefully they cut to single digits early in 2nd half, otherwise we are going to need the backdoor.

[GemSportsPicks]

This is embarassing for Towson.

[Tower]

Agreed.

[GemSportsPicks]

Done with this game, 23-0 run, missed layups and free throws all over the place now... Talk about a collapse.. Be back for 7 oclocks

[saints1856]

I bet Under 73.5 for 2nd half. Towson may score 15 haha

[tatddy]

I guess my only question is why bet so much? $1,400 hard earned dollars on this crap team?

[Pew Pew]

You're really bad. HAHAHAHA shouldn't bet on bad teams on the road.

[Power Play]

If you don't have over 100,000 in your account you've bet too much on this game.

[Tklane21]

Don't let this one throw you on tilt tonight. A bunch of us took a big hit on Towson today, but there are plenty of good looks to shake this one off and just brush it aside

[GemSportsPicks]

Not on tilt, I don't believe in the whole bankroll managment thing... I deposit 500 at a time, I bet 500 on first game then 1000 on the rest. So far this year, have made one depsoit, turned it into 14500, withdrew 6000, now I'm down to my last 1000 in account... Even if it loses I'm still up 5500 on the year, so no worries from me. If it loses I'll take a couple days maybe a couple weeks off, really wait until I see a great board then I make another 500 dollar deposit and do the same thing. It may not work for everyone but it works for me.