I'mAWinner/T Powell/Snowball???

dawetpuma · 01-19-11, 02:55 PM

Hey, I come on here to just check out what other people are saying bcz everyone once in a while you can find a great play by someone that really has done there research.

I usually come up with my own plays just by poking around on the net. Fav sites to visit are vegasinder.com, scoresandodds.com, covers.com, and if theres a certain team that has caught my eye i usually go to that teams website bcz they will give u the last and greatest news updates.

I make sure that I follow teams that I know. I wouldnt go off wagering on teams that even statistics dont matter.

Last thing is I would stay away from over and unders to start. That will kill your bank really quick. Thats somethin you work into. You need to learn how the lines move and why they move that way. You will eventually come up with your own bible of systems. make sure you keep records. Last thing dont be afraid to pull the trigger.

Miami Florida +1.5 good play.
Goodluck...

HoulihansTX · 01-19-11, 03:12 PM

Flip a coin

throw darts

guess

many options out there

SilverTongueFox · 01-19-11, 03:32 PM

Houlihan - you are the man! I guess I am just overthinking - it really is that simple. Thanks.

Snowball · 01-19-11, 03:57 PM

if you are new, and it sounds like you are, then you don't have an instilled
knowledge of the teams. that will make it more difficult for you to cover the entire
card during the regular season. So by all means I would suggest narrowing down
the card. The whole process is one of elimination. It's tough enough, and there are
always surprises ! What I do is whittle down the card, tossing out the games that I strongly
believe "could go either way", and through the elimination wind up with fewer plays and then
keep breaking them down further. Toss historical matchup stats out the window. Only look
at the current season. It's far enough into the year now where we can evaluate the teams
on their own current merits. If it was early in the year, you look at the previous season and
compare the relative carryforward of the rosters. Here are some factors to consider:
1. Home/Away court - at minimum 4 extra points advantage to the Home team.
2. Shooting Stats - FG%, FT%, FT Attempts, 3-pt%
3. Play Stats - Assists, Steals, Blocks, Turnovers, etc. Personally I ignore scoring stats.
I feel that the shooting/play stats and the RPI are less misleading.
4. Experience - how many Juniors and Seniors on the starting squad ? how many off the bench ?
if a young team, you need to weigh their talent against experience and try to figure when will
they become mature ? a good example was the Kentucky loss at Alabama. Their inexperience in
hostile environments put them down 20 pts, then their talent brought them back, but they lost.
That means the team is growing in experience. But are not quite there yet.
5. RPI. You need to consider Strength of Schedule and RPI, especially when it becomes relevant
after 2-3 months of games. A low RPI always yields better stats, a high RPI makes a team look
average.. but the team with the higher RPI has an advantage over the low RPI team.
6. Coaching. Coaching is important especially at the collegiate level.
7. Intangibles and Setups.. things we can't put our finger on but sense... as your betting experience
in CBB grows, you will feel this.. it is that "gut" you talk about. Track your gut. See how it does.
But know it can also be your enemy, so always put work above gut. Setups are matchups where
you believe a certain teams strengths compare favorably against their opponents. They may not
show on paper.. you need to know basketball and look between the lines to find these.
8. Watching the Games.. to me, is important. Try to watch these teams on the various sites for
games (atdhe.net,channelsurfing.net,watch-sports.com) and tv.
9. Game trackers. Learn how to read them. Especially helpful in 2 halfs. For example if a team is
shooting 25% and their opponent is not dominating play, there is a good chance they will not
shoot 25% again in the 2nd Half, especially if their average is, say, 37%.
10. Models.. the one I compare against is on CBS Sports. Here it is.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...ves/selections which picks over 70%
winners, but also shows the predicted, computerized scores.
11. Line Movement.. watch it. if nothing more than because it makes you see where the $ is going.
12.. INJURIES. Have to check them. If the injury is to players that do not produce much and do not
play a lot of minutes, then that team is safe. If the injury is to a top scorer, you need to factor
that. Often I will take a game off my card because of injuries.

what I do is arrive at my own lines, then look at the Vegas lines, then
check against the CBS computer model. If something's out of whack, I won't
play it. Let's use an example. Today I capped URI at -5. CBS has them at -7.
but the line opened at -2. That's a play. See what I am doing ? When I say "i capped", initially what I mean is this is what I EXPECT the line TO BE. If you expect it to be +4 and it's +8, what are they seeing that you did not ? check CBS and CBS is at +10.. (has them losing by 10), then whoa, now something's
wrong - don't play that game, or take the other side, but if CBS has it at +4 also, then perhaps the line is inflated to the favorite too much.

JGetz · 01-19-11, 05:27 PM

Wow. Extremely helpful advice. ^^^ Not a lot of people on this site would do this to help.

I'mAWinner · 01-19-11, 07:27 PM

Thank you very much for putting my name next too those two great cappers. I will give some items that I've learned through the years. After the games tonight I will post. Again thanx !

BGboothA · 01-19-11, 08:38 PM

My biggest advice is something that I learned and is profitting for me this year.

Pick a conference and stick to it. I focus only on the Pac-10. Everynow and again I will make a small bet outside the Pac-10. But anything over 1 unit is only in the Pac-10. I can watch just about all the games and get a good feeling for what is going on with all 10 teams.

And Money management.

Snowball · 01-19-11, 09:47 PM

another thing about road teams.. experience matters to win on the road.
freshmen are brand new to all this, they are nowhere prepared for it..
sophomores, most were not starters in their freshman year, or if they were, were not
the team leaders.. before you take a team on the road, you want to see enough juniors
and especially seniors on the team. and they can't just be bench warmers.

AbeFroman · 01-19-11, 10:27 PM

I'm pretty new to this whole thing we call gambling to, as I've only been wagering about six months, so while I can't offer what the cappers in the thread title have to offer, I can offer another important piece of advice that BG hit on.

Money management.

I love baseball. It's why I began my gambling quest back in August. I started out by going 15-1, betting about five bucks per game, and couldn't understand why I didn't do this before, it was so easy! Then I got cold. Ice cold. Within a month of depositing, my bankroll was depleted, and I was left wondering where it all went wrong.

Find a money management system that fits your bankroll. Whether it's five percent of your bank roll per bet, or a pre-determined denomination per sport or game, find something and BE CONSISTENT. The goal of gambling is not to profit in the short-term, but the long term, and to do so, you have to be consistent through the hot streaks and cold streaks.

Just my $.02. Good luck!