Butler @ Wright St

[Tom Rodgers]

I like Butler to go in to Wright State and beat the Raiders handily tonight. The spread is only
-4.5 and that's a bargain. It started out at 5 and has dropped. Not sure why anyone would bet against a team that has gone 5-2 ATS against Wright State over the past two years or against a team that's offensively more efficient, has a better FG%, has less turnovers, has a 7% better rebound average, scores more and wins by a margin of almost 9 points versus 3 points. When it comes to defense, the bulldogs once again rebound better, block more, and commit less fouls than the "mighty" Raiders. The only thing they have going against them is that 3 of the their 5 losses have been on the road, but two of those were agianst Louiville and the other was Xavier. When looking at the Power rating (RPI), Butler comes in at 19 overall versus Wright's 124. The team with more depth, better offense, and better defense generally wins games by double digits, that's why I'm leaning with the bulldogs tonight.

[homerbush]

No play on this one. Butler could win or lose this game by20.

[Tom Rodgers]

No play on this one. Butler could win or lose this game by20.

Hahahaha, true point.

[southpaw74]

Yeah why is line only -4 now? Like north Texas yesterday. Looks like a no brainer in every category and they lost outright.

[Hawk007]

I'm with u Tom. Butler has covered this spread many times against Wright, I don't see today being any different. Butler is playing well and Wright just got lit up.

[Orangemen 44]

On Butler myself

[VTranX]

still dont know who im gonna pick.

[VTranX]

butler is at -4 now.

[LockPickMaster]

– Butler has climbed to 24th nationally in offensive efficiency, with 114.6 points per 100 possessions, according to kenpom.com. Last year’s NCAA runner-up, by contrast, was 50th. The only comparable recent Butler team was the 2007 Sweet Sixteen quintet, which was 16th.
– Butler has been over 120 in per-100 efficiency six times in 18 games, equaling the total for 38 games last year.
– Butler has scored 80 or more points seven times already. Think that’s not a big deal? The only Butler team in this decade with as many as six was the 30-4 team in 2008.
– Butler has climbed into the Horizon League scoring lead at 74.6 ppg.

[Glitch]

Yeah why is line only -4 now? Like north Texas yesterday. Looks like a no brainer in every category and they lost outright.

yeah 90% of the people on butler but it the line moves down to -4.

[LLXC]

Didn't play the -4 but did watch the game. Wright St got a lot of foul calls their way. Mack almost sent this game into OT but the ball didn't want to go down.

[MarkDee]

To good to be true usually is

[LockPickMaster]

FU Butt Plugs

[LT Profits]

Wright State was a rather easy call here I thought. Guys mentioned that Butler.s offensive efficiency is up, but nobody mentioned they only rank in the 90s in defensive efficiency. This was a also a huge revenge spot at home for the Raiders after losing to Butler in the Horizon Championship Game last year, and they were already looking ahead to this came when they collapsed in the second half vs. Valpo Friday.

[Jhaug98]

Honestly I thought butler would easily cover the spread at -4.5 when I placed mine. I thought if Wright St can't even hang with Valparaiso how could they possibly hang with Butler? I guess the fact without Gordon Hayward could be a big part of it huh? Mack is good, but no Hayward by far! That one bit the dust for me!

[Covy]

Butler barely clinged to the lead for quite a bit of the second half but couldn't run away with it

This game shouldve been a winner, but what happened happened

[Glitch]

Wright State was a rather easy call here I thought. Guys mentioned that Butler.s offensive efficiency is up, but nobody mentioned they only rank in the 90s in defensive efficiency. This was a also a huge revenge spot at home for the Raiders after losing to Butler in the Horizon Championship Game last year, and they were already looking ahead to this came when they collapsed in the second half vs. Valpo Friday.

what are you talking about:

wright st. is 277th in points per game, 344th in rebounds per game, 325th in assists pergame. Butler is more than 100 ranks passed wright state in all of those categories.

and they didnt "collapse in the second half"...valpo went on a 24-6 run to get back in it that spanned both halfs. they were up 4 points with over 15 minutes left.

butler had won 9 out of their last 10, including blowing out FSU (who beat duke) blowing out Washington state (who beat baylor) and valpo (who beat wright state by double digits)

they lost tonight because of bullsh*t and poor shot selection and off-balanced layups combined with poor rebounding. it was Only an easy call if you believe in reverse line movement.

[Glitch]

literally 90% of the public was on the wrong side of this "easy call"

[LT Profits]

literally 90% of the public was on the wrong side of this "easy call"

I guess that is a compliment to me.

[Glitch]

I guess that is a compliment to me.

heheh it is...

[Vol_Bengal]

the only way a person could lean away from Butler in this game was the fact that the line went down with the largest percentage of money on them... I wanted to bet Butler soooo bad but when 75% of the money is on em and the line goes from 4.5 to 4 something is wrong... I stayed away

[LT Profits]

what are you talking about:

wright st. is 277th in points per game, 344th in rebounds per game, 325th in assists pergame. Butler is more than 100 ranks passed wright state in all of those categories.

and they didnt "collapse in the second half"...valpo went on a 24-6 run to get back in it that spanned both halfs. they were up 4 points with over 15 minutes left.

butler had won 9 out of their last 10, including blowing out FSU (who beat duke) blowing out Washington state (who beat baylor) and valpo (who beat wright state by double digits)

they lost tonight because of bullsh*t and poor shot selection and off-balanced layups combined with poor rebounding. it was Only an easy call if you believe in reverse line movement.

You conveniently left out the more important stats. Wright State has an above average offensive efficiency of 1.04 and they don't turn the ball over, ranking 42nd in the country turning the ball over on just 18.0 percent of their possessions. Meanwhile, Butler only ranks 82nd in defensive efficiency and they only rank 240th in forcing turnovers. Those stats alone, especially the turnover ones, plus the revenge factor made this upset easily foreseeable.

[LT Profits]

the only way a person could lean away from Butler in this game was the fact that the line went down with the largest percentage of money on them... I wanted to bet Butler soooo bad but when 75% of the money is on em and the line goes from 4.5 to 4 something is wrong... I stayed away

Read Post 22. Learning to interpret Pomeroy stats is important (for now at least although they are starting to gain popularity, which is a bad thing), because the raw stats that Gltch quoted are more easily available and thus factored into the lines.

[Glitch]

You conveniently left out the more important stats. Wright State has an above average offensive efficiency of 1.04 and they don't turn the ball over, ranking 42nd in the country turning the ball over on just 18.0 percent of their possessions. Meanwhile, Butler only ranks 82nd in defensive efficiency and they only rank 240th in forcing turnovers. Those stats alone, especially the turnover ones, plus the revenge factor made this upset easily foreseeable.

im going to study up some on efficiency ratings...ive seen both of these teams play at least 3 times each this year...butler forced up a lot of bad shots and squandered opportunities. i had them -1 -220 as the last leg of a nice parlay.

[LT Profits]

Oh I BETTER add that I posted Wright State as a play here 7 hours before game time, as it would seem that I am red-boarding after the fact here otherwise.

[Glitch]

Oh I BETTER add that I posted Wright State as a play here 7 hours before game time, as it would seem that I am red-boarding after the fact here otherwise.

i think anyone whos been round a couple days knows youre not that kinda guy...

do you use this site? http://kenpom.com/

[Vol_Bengal]

You conveniently left out the more important stats. Wright State has an above average offensive efficiency of 1.04 and they don't turn the ball over, ranking 42nd in the country turning the ball over on just 18.0 percent of their possessions. Meanwhile, Butler only ranks 82nd in defensive efficiency and they only rank 240th in forcing turnovers. Those stats alone, especially the turnover ones, plus the revenge factor made this upset easily foreseeable.

Ok... you stated Wright's offensive efficiency, offensive turnover ratio, and Butler's defensive ability to cause turnovers. But that is only 1/2 the equation. What is Butler's offensive efficiency, turnover ratio, and Wright's defensive ability to cause turnovers.

Don't only give stats for one team and that be "the magic bullet".

[LT Profits]

i think anyone whos been round a couple days knows youre not that kinda guy...

do you use this site? http://kenpom.com/

Yes that's the site.

And thanks.

[agharah1]

I dont understand why anyone would trust their money to Butler. They are the flakiest of flake teams there is, did you not see the beat-down Wisconsin-Milwaukee gave them? How many times have the Bulldogs choked in the Horizon League tournament to the likes of Wright State and Cleveland State and stealing an at-large bid from a more deserving team.

I for one bet against the Bulldogs in every single round of the tournament last year.

[Glitch]

I dont understand why anyone would trust their money to Butler. They are the flakiest of flake teams there is, did you not see the beat-down Wisconsin-Milwaukee gave them? How many times have the Bulldogs choked in the Horizon League tournament to the likes of Wright State and Cleveland State and stealing an at-large bid from a more deserving team.

I for one bet against the Bulldogs in every single round of the tournament last year.

i wish i never would have watched them rape washington state on christmas night- i was thinking the whole season up until then that they were overrated but their ball movement and inside-out production on offense really impressed me....unfortunately.

[LT Profits]

Ok... you stated Wright's offensive efficiency, offensive turnover ratio, and Butler's defensive ability to cause turnovers. But that is only 1/2 the equation. What is Butler's offensive efficiency, turnover ratio, and Wright's defensive ability to cause turnovers.

Don't only give stats for one team and that be "the magic bullet".

Because the difference wasn't as drastic, especially in the turnover percentage department where the Butler offense and the Wright State defense are both in the top 20 nationally. Just go to the kenpom website and you will see it.