Mathematical Plays in basketball

[The Investor]

i believe math plays a large role in the betting world as in the trading world. i may apply it a little differently than most. im not going to say too much, because i dont want to rock the boat around here.

ill simply list the plays for a few days here and let the results speak for themselves.

1. West Virginia (-1.5) (-1.10) $110 to win $100

2. Louisville (-2.5) (-1.10) $110 to win $100

3. UCLA (-11.5) (-1.10) $110 to win $100

4. Denver Nuggets (-9) $110 to win $100

5. Golden State (-11.5) $110 to win $100

And no before anyone asks, this isnt a play the favorites approach. the plays listed, i feel have a mathematical edge to win tonight and cover the spread. the equation spits out a large number of dogs as well.

[Arnold]

Is it a proven mathematical model or you're just testing it now?

[The Investor]

i will answer (testing it now) publicly for the first time.

its a mathematical equation that shows how many points "team a" should beat "team b" by.

[The Investor]

the system has hit:

(60.10%) in the ncaa this season.
(57.2%) in the nba season.

those are for this year only and im making no claims here, as to what its going to hit, if i were to post the plays.

it seems there are some smart guys here and im hesitant about posting a lot of my work.

[Arnold]

Well, if you're just testing it now, then don't get your hopes up high. I've tested way too many models/theories to know that you have a better chance of hitting a +10000 ML underdog than coming up with a proven model. Also, don't you have a database to test it against? It will take you years to test it the way you're testing it now.

PS. Wagering $110 just to test something - you must be very rich!

[Arnold]

the system has hit:

(60.10%) in the ncaa this season.
(57.2%) in the nba season.

How large is your sample?

[The Investor]

i dont want to get into any heated discussions here, surrounding any work that i have done.

i said, ill answer "testing it publicly". and that answer is correct, when using the word "public".

[The Investor]

between 250 and 300 each. i know its not a large enough base but thats only for this season.

and yes, i do not consider a ($100) wager, large.

[Arnold]

250-300 is a good start. Maybe it really works, I don't know.

[The Investor]

thats why i thought i would post it. sort of a place to document the results.

there is still plenty of season left, when you consider the nba playoffs.

[The Investor]

For the posted record: 3-2 (+$80)

NBA: 2-0 (+$200)
NCAA: 1-2 (-$120)

i am going to start a thread in the nba room and finish the season there, as well as the playoffs.

not many college games left, so ill finish them here.

fridays plays:

Kansas (-12) $110 to win $100

Mich St (+4.5) $110 to win $100

Wisconsin (-4.5) $110 to win $100

i know there is no way to prove this but off the record, the model has hit about (61%) this season and for the ncaa tourney, if you seleceted every game, even with the slightest edge, the record is (31-22) (58.5%). thats of no use to anyone here but that is what the numbers have shown. there would be the slightest of leans on (stanford +2) but not enough to risk money on.

for the record: 1-2 (-$120)

we have enough games left to get a good look at the NBA, counting the playoffs and ill be starting a thread later today, in that room.

Good Day Gentlemen.

[Arnold]

You said you tested it before. Did you test it on the same games that you derived your equation from? Just want to say that you need a different set of games to test it on. I'm not sure if you know this.

[The Investor]

i tested it on different games and then began wagering, after getting some pretty good initial results.