Top Overachievers:
Washington State (7-2 ATS) (4 points from being 9-0 ATS)
Louisville (6-2 ATS)
Top Underachievers:
Baylor (2-4 ATS) (3 SU losses as favorite)
Murray State (3-6 ATS) (3 wins came by a total of 8 points ATS)
Washington State:
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the resurgence of basketball at WSU. Former coach Tony Bennett left the program for Virginia after guiding the Cougars to a 69-33 record in 3 seasons, including a Sweet 16 in 2007-2008.
Ken Bone may not be a household name but he compiled a winning percentage of over 72% in 350 games at Seattle Pacific, including NCAA tourny appearances in 8 of his last 9 seasons before moving on. Bone led Portland State to back-to-back 23 win and NCAA tourny appearances before leaving for Washington State.
Looking at Washington State, the things that should jump out to you should be how well they shoot the basketball and play defense. They are top 10 in effective field goal percentage offensively and defensively. This is a VERY impressive stat, but also a concerning one. One area that plagues them is rebounding the basketball. They are a well below average offensive rebounding team and they also struggle to rebound the ball defensively.
In a game against Baylor, WSU held Baylor to 36% field goal shooting but gave up a staggering 18 offensive rebounds and outrebounded 37-23 total. In the home loss to Kansas State, WSU was outrebounded 41-28. In both games against elite competition (and being underdogs), Washington State had no answer on the boards for their bigger, more athletic opponents.
THE VIEW: Washington State won't be able to keep up the hot shooting and best 3 point defense (25.7%) in the country. With huge rebounding problems, I see a nasty ATS loss streak ahead for WSU.
Baylor:
Even after the departures of point guard Tweety Carter and big man Ekpe Udoh, many penciled the Baylor Bears in as a preseason top 15 team or better. The off court troubles of star shooting guard LaceDarius Dunn haven't exactly been a blessing. Baylor became a very public team after reaching the Elite 8 last year and nearly upsetting Duke.
One of the biggest problems with Baylor is starting a sophomore point guard in A.J. Walton. Replacing a senior point guard is always very difficult and not surprisingly, turnovers have plagued the Bears early this season. Tweety Carter was an integral part of last years team and I believe most people incorrectly assumed Walton wouldn't miss a beat as point guard.
Baylor played it's final game of 2010 tonight and lost to Florida State as nearly a 4 point favorite. They have zero solid out of conference wins and losses to Gonzaga, Washington State, and Florida State (every good team they've faced). In those 3 games, A.J. Walton has put up 10 assists and 14 turnovers. Walton has close to 15 more assists than turnovers on the year, but my stats show that those numbers have been padded by the weakest teams on Baylor's schedule
One of the more startling issues has been the subpar shooting of LaceDarius Dunn in Baylor's 3 losses. Dunn has combined to shoot 6-26 (19%) from the perimeter in those 3 games against good competiton. Dunn has performed in big spots before so it would be unfair to say that he doesn't play well under pressure, but statistically Dunn's numbers have been padded by the barrage of 5 teams outside of the top 250 in KenPom's rankings.
THE VIEW: A.J. Walton is a talented kid who will eventually find the flow of the offense and LaceDarius is too good of a shooter to continue shooting 19% from outside against good teams. Baylor was still a top 15 team in Ken Pomeroy's rankings before their loss tonight. Baylor should end the season on a solid run ATS.
Louisville:
Another team off to a hot start ATS is the red hot Louisville Cardinals. Louisville suffered through a very disapointing season last year after going to back-to-back Elite 8's in years prior. Most will argue that Louisville hasn't faced very stiff competition this season and they would be correct to a degree. However, UNLV is a top 25 and Butler is a top 40 team in Ken Pomeroy's rankings.
This Louisville team returned 0 starters from a team that barely made the NCAA Tournament and was quickly bounced by a mediocre Cal team in the 1st round. One of the major reasons for the sudden turn around is ranking in the top 10 in both blocks and steals. According to Ken Pomeroy, Louisville is a top 10 overall defensively. The other big reason is a solid 22nd in effective field goal percentage.
Sophomore point guard Peyton Siva has taken over for the departed Edgar Sosa. Many believe Siva is already better than Sosa because of his true point guard nature. Siva has the ability to penetrate and find the very willing 3 point shooters. 7 Cardinals have hoisted 20 3 pointers or more in just 11 games on the season. One of the big issues for Louisville is the reliance on the deep ball. Exactly one-third (33.3%) of Louisville's points has come on three pointers this season, compared to the NCAA average of 27%.
Another disturbing trend for Louisville is the rate at which their opponent's get to the foul line. Over 25% of their opponent's points comes from the foul line, compared to the NCAA average of 21%. A tightly officiated game or an off shooting night from outside will result in nearly an automatic loss for the Cardinals this season. You can't afford to send good teams to the free throw line at that rate and you certainly can't be consistent as a jump shooting team (or a good bet for that matter).
THE VIEW: After a blistering start, Louisville should falter some when conference play starts up. I don't expect Louisville to completely fall apart, but don't be shocked by a string of losses followed by an upset win or two. This team can do virtually anything and you would be wise to NOT bet Louisville basketball games because of the reliance on the 3 pointer and the inability to not foul the opposition.
Murray State:
After a memorable buzzer beater in the NCAA Tournament to defeat Vanderbilt, much was expected of the Racers this season. In 3 games against top 100 competition, Murray State has managed to lose all 3 games by double digits (0-3 ATS) and another double digits loss at conference rival Morehead State. To say that Murray was overvalued after a fortunate win over Vandy in the NCAA Tournament would be a wise statement.
The overwhelming problem for Murray State is their atrocious defensive effective field goal percentage. Out of nearly 350 NCAA teams, Murray State ranks outside of the top 300 in this category. This is the same team that finished 2009-2010 as the 10th BEST team in the same category but they only played 2 top 100 teams all of last year. They certainly were much better last year than this year but the competition level was very different.
Even though competition is much stiffer this year, last year's squad would certainly not be 3-6 ATS with the same schedule. My problem is they are almost literally dead last in defensive field goal percentage inside the 3 point line. This usually means the opponent has gotten easy dunks and layups in the game, which is directly related to the defense. This team lost 2 starters from last year who were solid defensively and apparently their value was greatly underestimated by just about everyone.
THE VIEW: Very rarely do I advise you to bet on terrible defensive teams but given the experience on this team, I would advise you to consider betting Murray in the future. The lines should become deflated by now after numerous terrible outings and the future is your chance to strike with Murray State.
Washington State (7-2 ATS) (4 points from being 9-0 ATS)
Louisville (6-2 ATS)
Top Underachievers:
Baylor (2-4 ATS) (3 SU losses as favorite)
Murray State (3-6 ATS) (3 wins came by a total of 8 points ATS)
Washington State:
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the resurgence of basketball at WSU. Former coach Tony Bennett left the program for Virginia after guiding the Cougars to a 69-33 record in 3 seasons, including a Sweet 16 in 2007-2008.
Ken Bone may not be a household name but he compiled a winning percentage of over 72% in 350 games at Seattle Pacific, including NCAA tourny appearances in 8 of his last 9 seasons before moving on. Bone led Portland State to back-to-back 23 win and NCAA tourny appearances before leaving for Washington State.
Looking at Washington State, the things that should jump out to you should be how well they shoot the basketball and play defense. They are top 10 in effective field goal percentage offensively and defensively. This is a VERY impressive stat, but also a concerning one. One area that plagues them is rebounding the basketball. They are a well below average offensive rebounding team and they also struggle to rebound the ball defensively.
In a game against Baylor, WSU held Baylor to 36% field goal shooting but gave up a staggering 18 offensive rebounds and outrebounded 37-23 total. In the home loss to Kansas State, WSU was outrebounded 41-28. In both games against elite competition (and being underdogs), Washington State had no answer on the boards for their bigger, more athletic opponents.
THE VIEW: Washington State won't be able to keep up the hot shooting and best 3 point defense (25.7%) in the country. With huge rebounding problems, I see a nasty ATS loss streak ahead for WSU.
Baylor:
Even after the departures of point guard Tweety Carter and big man Ekpe Udoh, many penciled the Baylor Bears in as a preseason top 15 team or better. The off court troubles of star shooting guard LaceDarius Dunn haven't exactly been a blessing. Baylor became a very public team after reaching the Elite 8 last year and nearly upsetting Duke.
One of the biggest problems with Baylor is starting a sophomore point guard in A.J. Walton. Replacing a senior point guard is always very difficult and not surprisingly, turnovers have plagued the Bears early this season. Tweety Carter was an integral part of last years team and I believe most people incorrectly assumed Walton wouldn't miss a beat as point guard.
Baylor played it's final game of 2010 tonight and lost to Florida State as nearly a 4 point favorite. They have zero solid out of conference wins and losses to Gonzaga, Washington State, and Florida State (every good team they've faced). In those 3 games, A.J. Walton has put up 10 assists and 14 turnovers. Walton has close to 15 more assists than turnovers on the year, but my stats show that those numbers have been padded by the weakest teams on Baylor's schedule
One of the more startling issues has been the subpar shooting of LaceDarius Dunn in Baylor's 3 losses. Dunn has combined to shoot 6-26 (19%) from the perimeter in those 3 games against good competiton. Dunn has performed in big spots before so it would be unfair to say that he doesn't play well under pressure, but statistically Dunn's numbers have been padded by the barrage of 5 teams outside of the top 250 in KenPom's rankings.
THE VIEW: A.J. Walton is a talented kid who will eventually find the flow of the offense and LaceDarius is too good of a shooter to continue shooting 19% from outside against good teams. Baylor was still a top 15 team in Ken Pomeroy's rankings before their loss tonight. Baylor should end the season on a solid run ATS.
Louisville:
Another team off to a hot start ATS is the red hot Louisville Cardinals. Louisville suffered through a very disapointing season last year after going to back-to-back Elite 8's in years prior. Most will argue that Louisville hasn't faced very stiff competition this season and they would be correct to a degree. However, UNLV is a top 25 and Butler is a top 40 team in Ken Pomeroy's rankings.
This Louisville team returned 0 starters from a team that barely made the NCAA Tournament and was quickly bounced by a mediocre Cal team in the 1st round. One of the major reasons for the sudden turn around is ranking in the top 10 in both blocks and steals. According to Ken Pomeroy, Louisville is a top 10 overall defensively. The other big reason is a solid 22nd in effective field goal percentage.
Sophomore point guard Peyton Siva has taken over for the departed Edgar Sosa. Many believe Siva is already better than Sosa because of his true point guard nature. Siva has the ability to penetrate and find the very willing 3 point shooters. 7 Cardinals have hoisted 20 3 pointers or more in just 11 games on the season. One of the big issues for Louisville is the reliance on the deep ball. Exactly one-third (33.3%) of Louisville's points has come on three pointers this season, compared to the NCAA average of 27%.
Another disturbing trend for Louisville is the rate at which their opponent's get to the foul line. Over 25% of their opponent's points comes from the foul line, compared to the NCAA average of 21%. A tightly officiated game or an off shooting night from outside will result in nearly an automatic loss for the Cardinals this season. You can't afford to send good teams to the free throw line at that rate and you certainly can't be consistent as a jump shooting team (or a good bet for that matter).
THE VIEW: After a blistering start, Louisville should falter some when conference play starts up. I don't expect Louisville to completely fall apart, but don't be shocked by a string of losses followed by an upset win or two. This team can do virtually anything and you would be wise to NOT bet Louisville basketball games because of the reliance on the 3 pointer and the inability to not foul the opposition.
Murray State:
After a memorable buzzer beater in the NCAA Tournament to defeat Vanderbilt, much was expected of the Racers this season. In 3 games against top 100 competition, Murray State has managed to lose all 3 games by double digits (0-3 ATS) and another double digits loss at conference rival Morehead State. To say that Murray was overvalued after a fortunate win over Vandy in the NCAA Tournament would be a wise statement.
The overwhelming problem for Murray State is their atrocious defensive effective field goal percentage. Out of nearly 350 NCAA teams, Murray State ranks outside of the top 300 in this category. This is the same team that finished 2009-2010 as the 10th BEST team in the same category but they only played 2 top 100 teams all of last year. They certainly were much better last year than this year but the competition level was very different.
Even though competition is much stiffer this year, last year's squad would certainly not be 3-6 ATS with the same schedule. My problem is they are almost literally dead last in defensive field goal percentage inside the 3 point line. This usually means the opponent has gotten easy dunks and layups in the game, which is directly related to the defense. This team lost 2 starters from last year who were solid defensively and apparently their value was greatly underestimated by just about everyone.
THE VIEW: Very rarely do I advise you to bet on terrible defensive teams but given the experience on this team, I would advise you to consider betting Murray in the future. The lines should become deflated by now after numerous terrible outings and the future is your chance to strike with Murray State.
