Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

[DuncHen22]

I will do the best I can as somedays very busy with work Hopefully Aussiecapper can pitch in also as she knows the system plays ,I have to do this team by team daily because I dont have the knowledge of excel or however they do that shit Weekly I print out the KP rankings and go thru them game by game sometimes it takes a while .But yes I will share on this thread if it is ok with Dunnchen seeing this is his thread

As long as it's clear your plays are not part of my system, I'm fine with it.

[Axis]

Hell yea...4-0 tonight, and 2-0 in the NHL...

A lot of potential plays tomorrow as well...came across 12 possible plays...gotta put them through the filters now.

[armistel]

Now once you announce the plays in the morning, does line movement fit in at all? I watched the lines all day, and as they fluctuated, I identified an additional two plays of Kent State and Florida that I jumped on. Both hit for a spectacular 6-0 day, but do these apply to your system (obviously not for what you are actually tracking, but in theory) or do you have reasoning to not include plays based on line movement?

[kanak_attack]

I got the texas and bc games. But I was wondering how u capped the wisc and niu game

[EasyHustlin]

Nice night

Is there a maximum point difference that you use as a filter? Missouri is favored by 11 but kenpom has them winning by 5... 6 point difference seems unusually high

[DuncHen22]

Now once you announce the plays in the morning, does line movement fit in at all? I watched the lines all day, and as they fluctuated, I identified an additional two plays of Kent State and Florida that I jumped on. Both hit for a spectacular 6-0 day, but do these apply to your system (obviously not for what you are actually tracking, but in theory) or do you have reasoning to not include plays based on line movement?

I only play opening lines.

[DuncHen22]

Nice night

Is there a maximum point difference that you use as a filter? Missouri is favored by 11 but kenpom has them winning by 5... 6 point difference seems unusually high

I'll still count it because it happens so rarely and haven't noticed a problem yet. I've only had 1 play with a larger differential than 5. It was a differential of 8 and it cashed.

I haven't capped tomorrows plays yet though so I'll check it out in a little bit.

[DuncHen22]

1/12

Pitt +2.5 (3.5)
Seton -2 (2)
UTEP -3 (2)
George Mason -6 (2)
Ball St -6 (2)
Duke -8 (3)
Vandy -9 (3)
Tulsa +3 (2)
UNLV +5 (3)
Nebraska +11 (5)
Colorado +10 (2)
Colorado State +10 (2)
[ADDED] Clemson -7.5 (2.5)
[ADDED] Furman +3.5 (2.5)

I decided to just get rid of the 3 sections altogether. After over 140 plays, they're all at 62% so I'm not seeing the difference I was expecting. I can analyze them again at the end of the season if needed.

Also, let me know if I missed something.

[shopbar picks]

Thanx again. I liked you tier system. I had a little more confidence in some of the plays that way. Not bitching keep up the good work.

[geeze]

Dunchen,

The only thing you may have missed is how much we appreciate your selections and sharp insights.

Thank you!

[DuncHen22]

Thanx again. I liked you tier system. I had a little more confidence in some of the plays that way. Not bitching keep up the good work.

Thanks, but the confidence was superficial at best. All the percentages are equal (62%) and if you add up the # of games in each tier and divide the # of units, you get essentially the same. Tier 1 was .199, tier 2 was 0.210, and tier 3 was 0.201 (that number is average units per win).

[DuncHen22]

Dunchen,

The only thing you may have missed is how much we appreciate your selections and sharp insights.

Thank you!

Thanks! I'm glad you appreciate it!

[shopbar picks]

does the system have anything on KUvs Ia st . The jayhawks should roll. Love the duke line. 2 best teams in the country but lines are low. Imo thanx sbp

[TxBulldog]

Bulldog, would you be willing to share what goes into your PR's? If not I understand...not all needs to be shared...just always looking for new angles and such.

I'm sorry, but I really can't. While I developed the PR's on my own using a readily available set of PR's from the web as the base. However, there is an aspect of it that was developed by someone else and shared with me on the understanding that I WOULD NOT share it with ANYONE! I will NEVER violate this trust! Let's just say this person has taught me a GREAT DEAL about how to win in this endeavor. I will always share with others what I can, but there are some things I can't.

[shopbar picks]

Also very be cautious on NEB. They are leaving the the big 12. And the refs are very queistionable on how they are calling games. Football they got screwed. But against IA ST last sat cbb. The refs were horrible. They tried not to call bad fouls, out of bounds plays but just too obvious. Pound the jayhawks

[TxBulldog]

1/12 Pitt +2.5 (3.5) Seton -2 (2) UTEP -3 (2) George Mason -6 (2) Ball St -6 (2) Duke -9 (2) Vandy -9 (3) Tulsa +3 (2) UNLV +4.5 (2.5) Nebraska +11.5 (5.5) Colorado +10 (2) Colorado State +10 (2) I decided to just get rid of the 3 sections altogether. After over 140 plays, they're all at 62% so I'm not seeing the difference I was expecting. I can analyze them again at the end of the season if needed. Also, let me know if I missed something.

Since, 1/1/11, my subset of these games is running 25-9 (73.5%). While this is a hell of a run, it could turn at any time, so please don't go crazy. I have been wanting to back check the beginning of the season, but just haven't had the time. I will post if I can get around to it.

For Wed, my subset of games for Dunc's system is:

Seton Hall
UTEP
G. Mason
Duke
UNLV
Colorado
Colo St.

[DuncHen22]

Great list, Bulldog! Good to see so many overlaps. BOL!

[tonycarr]

1/12

Pitt +2.5 (3.5)
Seton -2 (2)
UTEP -3 (2)
George Mason -6 (2)
Ball St -6 (2)
Duke -9 (2)
Vandy -9 (3)
Tulsa +3 (2)
UNLV +4.5 (2.5)
Nebraska +11.5 (5.5)
Colorado +10 (2)
Colorado State +10 (2)

I decided to just get rid of the 3 sections altogether. After over 140 plays, they're all at 62% so I'm not seeing the difference I was expecting. I can analyze them again at the end of the season if needed.

Also, let me know if I missed something.

Excellent night last night. Just so I am clear your not doing away with the games that were in the Tier 2 and 3 just not tracking them as seperate right?

[DaOutlaw1x]

What about Maryland -12 (KP -18)
Clemson -7.5(KP -10)

[armistel]

What about Maryland -12 (KP -18)
Clemson -7.5(KP -10)

Anything kenpom rates at a 10 PT difference or more, is not included as non competitive games are harder to predict. He covered this in more detail with some links in the first couple pages of the thread if you are interested.

[DaOutlaw1x]

Thank you

[Raven66]

You guys forgot Cuse!

[DaOutlaw1x]

Cuse doesn't qualify they are only off .5 must be atleast 2

[Heandog]

As long as it's clear your plays are not part of my system, I'm fine with it.

Thank you Dunchen, I will just list my plays and it would seem to make the play even stronger if it should match with yours and Tx Bulldogs but when I say stronger That dose not mean you should or have to bet more on that game ,like you said no system is fool proff and I would not want to see anybody bury themselfs by betting huge amounts . Thanks agian now I am gonna go thru the games Ill post later hopefully we have a few match with your plays

[jnsbanman]

Awesome good yesterday Dunchen and TX... I went 5-0 on my NCAAB.

[Heandog]

This is the (Kineproffesor system) I see 2 plays today Toledo +12 ,and Fordham+8- Aussie let me know if you see any more. Thanks

[jaythegreat]

thanks dunchen and txbulldog keep up the good work

[BIGDAY]

Looks like I picked a good day to jump on board yesterday, huh?
Let's look to profit again today!

[Heandog]

Hey, I've been been tracking these since first day of January so about the same and as it gets closer to February it will only get easier, at the moment the worst day was maybe 1-2 but all the rest was solid.. Last year I tracked it hard and made some big money til about mid march for memory, but I was a little scared backing all the underdogs cos they can get blown out in an instant.. This year I'm going to put my balls on the floor and bet much bigger as I'm confident in it's ability and if the record is anything like last years (65-70%) February will be big time for me.. But if it fails then Fukk it I was wrong but this is what I've been waiting for so I'm prepared win or loss.. Me and a mate tracked the system back for the year before and it also had similar results so fingers crossed that shit don't change this year.. I definitely think the books Fukk with it a little sometimes (bad lines etc) that's why having this other system going telling us of bad lines helps us alot..
I will definitely be able to help post up the plays with you, usually ill do it early to give everyone a chance to grab the best line..
As for the line going for +4 out to +6 all it means to me is that it's another play for our system and if u check the stats you'll find these ones usually are the better ones anyway believe it or not, and the rankings being higher lower etc as Dunchen asked that doesn't matter either as long as there both outside 180
Anyway let's track and see if it heats right up

Aussiecapper I will be going away jan 21 thur the 28 going on a cruise to Aruba so if you could keep track and post the plays it would really be great.

[Aussiecapper101]

Aussiecapper I will be going away jan 21 thur the 28 going on a cruise to Aruba so if you could keep track and post the plays it would really be great.

No doubt buddy

[Aussiecapper101]

This is the (Kineproffesor system) I see 2 plays today Toledo +12 ,and Fordham+8- Aussie let me know if you see any more. Thanks

Gimme half an hour and I'll confirm

[jaythegreat]

aussiecapper101 who is the women in your avatar?

[armistel]

Doesn't KenPom have Duke by 12 and Vandy by 11, so wouldn't they not be plays?

[Aussiecapper101]

aussiecapper101 who is the women in your avatar?

its Sloan from entourage (tv series)

[Aussiecapper101]

This is the (Kineproffesor system) I see 2 plays today Toledo +12 ,and Fordham+8- Aussie let me know if you see any more. Thanks

thats all for today for the kineproffesor system, plenty of close games but no cigar..