Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

[Axis]

I actually did that yesterday with a few games to help cover a loss haha...worked well.

Hopefully this picks up a bit...far too often "systems" such as this hit really great runs, and then fall off...hope that's not the case seeing as how I use it as part of my capping.

[DuncHen22]

That looks nice as you said lets us know what each play is. Another thing I was looking at and not able to track it except going forward is the line movement. I had inquired about it earlier and I think it could also be worth watching. If the line moves in our direction (making it a non-play late) VS line moving away (IE siena moving to -7). Perhaps tie those together for a 2nd half play.

That's not a bad idea. Maybe if the line moves away from us by a point or more (like Siena) we don't play 2H regardless of whether or not they cover in 1H. I'll definitely keep my eye on that as well (I checked all the plays yesterday and none of them (according to my book) moved away from us by a point or more).

Since our system is based off opening lines it's very difficult to use line movement unless your willing to bet the other side and lose the juice. But when incorporating 2H plays, you have a possible chance at redemption. We'll just track and see.

The main focus of this thread will still be our original system, but I thought I'd just throw this out there for discussion.

[DuncHen22]

Indy State opened at +0.5 for 1H and has moved to +1.

[DuncHen22]

Hopefully this picks up a bit...far too often "systems" such as this hit really great runs, and then fall off...hope that's not the case seeing as how I use it as part of my capping.

Yeah that's why I'm not immediately jumping on just because it would have turned my -1.1 day into a +1.5 day yesterday. It's promising but I'm not convinced.

[tonycarr]

That's not a bad idea. Maybe if the line moves away from us by a point or more (like Siena) we don't play 2H regardless of whether or not they cover in 1H. I'll definitely keep my eye on that as well (I checked all the plays yesterday and none of them (according to my book) moved away from us by a point or more).

Since our system is based off opening lines it's very difficult to use line movement unless your willing to bet the other side and lose the juice. But when incorporating 2H plays, you have a possible chance at redemption. We'll just track and see.

The main focus of this thread will still be our original system, but I thought I'd just throw this out there for discussion.

I really think this is worth watching. As you said the whole thing is based off opening lines and that is a great thing. The way Im looking at it is A) if the line is moving away from us we stand a better chance of losing and no im not willing to lose the juice, but on a 2H bet if the line has moved in our direction we stand a better chance of catching a 2nd winner. Its really worth at least watching.

As you said it will take alot probably the rest of the season to proof it but well worth the look IMHO

[Axis]

I also was wondering what to think about moving lines...because how many times would half a point bite you in the ass compared to how many times would you win? Say KP has a game 2 different from the line...well, if the line is -1, and it moves to -1.5 and now the difference is only 1.5...should you really not play it because of that 1/2 point? How often would that half a point really effect the account?

A lot of variables to worry about.

[DuncHen22]

Bradley is down 21 at the half (obviously didn't cover 1H) and 2H is +3.5.

The game spread moved away by a full point, but for now I'm just making a note of that and not discounting it.

[Axis]

I didn't play Bradley because I HATE double digit spreads...especially dogs...because they are getting that many point because they generally suck...which means they could not sure up and get blown out entirely...(as we see here)...

Be interesting to see what the 2nd half play does though...

[DuncHen22]

I didn't play Bradley because I HATE double digit spreads...especially dogs...because they are getting that many point because they generally suck...which means they could not sure up and get blown out entirely...(as we see here)...

Be interesting to see what the 2nd half play does though...

Yeah I wasn't sure how to do this one... If KP has the line as double digits but the line for the fave is single and at least a 2pt diff, we play it. But do we go the other way where KP is calling single digits while the line is double?

[DuncHen22]

I also was wondering what to think about moving lines...because how many times would half a point bite you in the ass compared to how many times would you win? Say KP has a game 2 different from the line...well, if the line is -1, and it moves to -1.5 and now the difference is only 1.5...should you really not play it because of that 1/2 point? How often would that half a point really effect the account?

A lot of variables to worry about.

I'd say I usually play it if that happens. I figure our 2pt plays hit 60+% of the time (historically) and if it moves in our direction that means many others think it's the right side too.

[Axis]

Yeah I wasn't sure how to do this one... If KP has the line as double digits but the line for the fave is single and at least a 2pt diff, we play it. But do we go the other way where KP is calling single digits while the line is double?

Yea, if the book line is double digits I don't play it...I've always found it to be more profitable betting the competitive games. I'm sure I miss out on some possible plays but...I feel more comfortable haha...

I also put them all through secondary filters...which worked great...but yesterday seemed to be a slumper for everyone except uh...I forgot his name in this thread who also used others filters.

last 2 nights have been a little rough but...hopefully it picks back up.

[tonycarr]

Bradley is down 21 at the half (obviously didn't cover 1H) and 2H is +3.5.

The game spread moved away by a full point, but for now I'm just making a note of that and not discounting it.

This was a tough one for me as well. I didnt play the 2nd half because it moved away from us but looking like it would have been a good play. Going to be hard to quantify which are plays and which are not, but I think we are on the right track.

[tonycarr]

Yeah I wasn't sure how to do this one... If KP has the line as double digits but the line for the fave is single and at least a 2pt diff, we play it. But do we go the other way where KP is calling single digits while the line is double?

I would say yes myself. Stick with what you are tracking and study the results as you have been doing. I would think the hardest part is not "out thinking yourself" so to speak.

[geeze]

Yea, if the book line is double digits I don't play it.

I also put them all through secondary filters...which worked great...but yesterday seemed to be a slumper for everyone except uh...I forgot his name in this thread who also used others filters.

His name is TxBulldog, and his contributions to this thread have been invaluable.

Good luck.

[Getsome22]

I'm a bit confused about this system...are you playing 1st half spread and then double up on the 2nd half if the 1st half loses?

[DuncHen22]

Wow! Bradley covered both! I actually put a little bit on Bradley 2H just because I didn't see UNI pulling away any more than 21. But I really wasn't expecting them to cover the game. I'm not going to read too much into this though. It's just another game and it happened to hit how I wanted. We'll keep tracking as we have been.

[DuncHen22]

I'm a bit confused about this system...are you playing 1st half spread and then double up on the 2nd half if the 1st half loses?

No, sorry it's gotten a little confusing lately.

We use KP's predictions to find our daily plays and play the full game spread (as it's been explained earlier in this thread).

What I just now started looking at was when the teams we pick fail to cover the first half spread, we can possibly add a 2H play on our same team. From yesterday and today those 2H plays are 9-5, which would be on top of all the full game plays which are 14-12 over the last 2 days, giving us a total of 23-17.

[tonycarr]

I'm a bit confused about this system...are you playing 1st half spread and then double up on the 2nd half if the 1st half loses?

This is not my system so I hope Im not oversteping my bounds.
No the plays are based on morning lines. Those are the plays and I personally make them in the morning based on those lines.

The 2nd half stuff is us watching after the day has progressed and lines have moved into or away from the play.

[tonycarr]

This is not my system so I hope Im not oversteping my bounds.
No the plays are based on morning lines. Those are the plays and I personally make them in the morning based on those lines.

The 2nd half stuff is us watching after the day has progressed and lines have moved into or away from the play.

I should also add that the 2nd half stuff is based on how the projected winner of our play did in the first half as well. IE didnt cover the first half spread, line moved to our favor, it could be a good 2nd half play.

[DuncHen22]

Tentative lineup for tomorrow. I'll update as soon as KP updates his data.

Tier 1:
Indiana State +2 (4) WIN
Louisville -7.5 (2.5) WIN
Siena -9 (2) LOSS

Tier 3:
Bradley +12 (3) WIN

Faves (aka Tier 1): 2-1 +0.9 units
+Away dogs (aka Tier 3): 3-1 +1.9 units

[DuncHen22]

DAILY WRAP-UP

(since Dec 11, 2010)
Faves: 58-37 (61%) +17.3 units
+Home Dogs: 66-41 (62%) +20.9 units
+Away Dogs: 84-53 (61%) +25.7 units

(since Jan 8, 2011)
2H Plays: 9-5 (64%) +3.5 units
+Full Time Plays: 23-17 (58%) +4.3 units

Does this make sense to everyone? I'm just afraid with all this discussion going on it may be getting a little confusing but I'm hoping to at least keep everything neat and in order with the daily wrap-ups.

[Axis]

I think to people following the thread it makes sense...

[tonycarr]

I agree to everyone following it makes sense. Also as new people start to follow the tread it will be easier to explain and perhaps they can actally figure it out without asking as many questions with as you said more being added.

[DuncHen22]

Do you guys think I should start a new thread so I can explain from the top what is going on? Or should we just keep it like this and answer new peoples' questions as they come up?

EDIT: ...after saying it, I actually like the latter better, myself. I'm not a big fan of people just tailing others without understanding why a play is a play. And I like open discussion about possible tweaks and working together. If we make people work for it (instead of just laying it all out there on the table in the 1st post of a new thread), they will be more likely to understand what we are doing and more willing to join in on the discussion.

... but if a lot disagree with that, I'll start up a new thread.

[Axis]

I'd just keep it in this thread...plus, greedy as it sounds...I swear that the more that shit gets shared and out...the worse it starts to do haha...*shrug* I'm a believer in the jinx.

Either way, 80% winning is in the title...if that doesn't attract people...well, screw it lol...they must not want to find out what's going on.

[tonycarr]

I also agree with keeping it in this thread. People can see the thought process that when into it and how you came to the conclusions you have. If they take the time to read through it, it will make sense.

[DuncHen22]

I'd just keep it in this thread...plus, greedy as it sounds...I swear that the more that shit gets shared and out...the worse it starts to do haha...*shrug* I'm a believer in the jinx.

Either way, 80% winning is in the title...if that doesn't attract people...well, screw it lol...they must not want to find out what's going on.

Haha! Yeah when I started this thread I really didn't think it was going to go anywhere, so I figured I might as well put something catchy in the title. Obviously I didn't think it was going to stay at 80%, but I think if you find a system that can average 60% you're golden. Let's not jinx it though just by talking about it.

[Fins007]

Dunc,

I think this whole thread is doing a great job!!I love the system and the fact that it has success.

We can analyze everything to death. The fact is I don't think we will ever have a definitive answer
as to why events aren't playing out right. I just waited and played Bradley and got the line at 13 1/2.
I saw it moving and didn't know why but trusted the "system". The "system" has been good and it
works. Here it worked for us with Bradley but failed with E. Illinois. Why? Who knows. That's basketball. That's what happens with 20 years olds.

Personally, I tried to follow a lot of games not on our docket and a lot of games surprised me.
KP had had Butler winning by 28. They won by 6. Were they emotionally drained from playing
Cleveland State and figured that YSU was a night off. Who knows? KP can't counter that.
KP was really off on Temple, Ohio State and Butler but was still on target with our system and games just over the paramater that we set. Fairfield (+11), IONA (+13) and Purdue (+14) all covered as he said they would. Certain teams like what TXBulldog has tracked is like having a "system" within a "system" and that makes it stronger.

Keep in mind, there was a lot of upsets within the last day or so and that happens. The bottomline is that we have to keep fine-tuning the system the best we can to keep the "odds" in our favor. We are doing that all the time on this thread. Everyone has been helpful. Keep the thread going and let's
keep working together to keep strengthening our "odds". That's all we can do......Good job!!

[tonycarr]

Dunc,

I think this whole thread is doing a great job!!I love the system and the fact that it has success.

We can analyze everything to death. The fact is I don't think we will ever have a definitive answer
as to why events aren't playing out right. I just waited and played Bradley and got the line at 13 1/2.
I saw it moving and didn't know why but trusted the "system". The "system" has been good and it
works. Here it worked for us with Bradley but failed with E. Illinois. Why? Who knows. That's basketball. That's what happens with 20 years olds.

Personally, I tried to follow a lot of games not on our docket and a lot of games surprised me.
KP had had Butler winning by 28. They won by 6. Were they emotionally drained from playing
Cleveland State and figured that YSU was a night off. Who knows? KP can't counter that.
KP was really off on Temple, Ohio State and Butler but was still on target with our system and games just over the paramater that we set. Fairfield (+11), IONA (+13) and Purdue (+14) all covered as he said they would. Certain teams like what TXBulldog has tracked is like having a "system" within a "system" and that makes it stronger.

Keep in mind, there was a lot of upsets within the last day or so and that happens. The bottomline is that we have to keep fine-tuning the system the best we can to keep the "odds" in our favor. We are doing that all the time on this thread. Everyone has been helpful. Keep the thread going and let's
keep working together to keep strengthening our "odds". That's all we can do......Good job!!

Strange as this may sound but to walk out of this weekend up units is really impressive because as you said alot of upsets and teams not covering as expected. Reason why can be discussed to death but the system/angle/whatever covered and showed a profit.

Much better then alot of people can say after this weekend! I think what I love about this is everyone is positive and wants to help contribute. I have not seen that in alot of the threads Ive read in my short time here.

Lets keep it up.
Cheers Dunc for starting this ball rolling.

[DuncHen22]

Thanks for the input, Fins007! You're absolutely right. There will always be randomness in sports and no system can ever account for all of it. I definitely think KP's system gets off when predicting non-competitive games like Butler (because they do think they can just sleep on it... but you also can't bet against them because the point is they have the talent to win by 28+.)

We'll keep studying and discussing and hopefully find something that works!

[Axis]

One year I tried compiling all the games from KP and trying to keep track which predictions did better and what not...there is just so many variables it's not possible. If there was anything perfect at predicting games...books would be ****** haha...so basically KP can just help us make a logic play...which we can do...and hope the players play to their ability...because that's what KP uses as a basis...the normal ability of the teams. Who can be hot and cold...

The fact something may have been found that can greatly benefit us...awesome. Maybe we'll find a tweak and be able to keep it at around 60%...if not...we'll just have to play it out to the end and make some money!

Just got use common sense...and sometimes go with feel...Just because KP says it's a play...well sometimes they need to be scrapped. I've cut a few and majority would have been losses...though I've scrapped some wins as well. I'm not sure if just trusting the KP thing will continue to be a success...but more of a way to point us in a direction of games to look further in on.

[Brp27345]

I like all the continued positive talk on here boys... Just as my own input into the conversation I personally try to avoid lines around Pick 'Em all the way up to +2 cuz I figure if KenPom thinks the win by 1... and they are getting a point... there is not much of advantage there... I mean how often does a team really lose by 1 or 2 points when fouling almost ALWAYS comes into play at the end of games...

I was wondering how anyone else felt about this and if DuncHen22 might have any idea in his stats how teams from Pick 'Em to +2 have done thus far this season... If you haven't been watching that all year I understand... but was just wondering if maybe u have...

Anyways... I look through the KenPom plays whose lines are +2.5 through +9.5 each day... and then lines from -1 through -9.5 and either play every game (if there are 5 or so plays on the day) or do some capping on those games to pick 6 or 7 if there is a 20 play card like there was Saturday...

Anyway thanks again to everyone in this thread and let's keep the conversations flowing as new ideas being discussed can only help to increase the proficiency of the system that is already working very well!!!

[DuncHen22]

All I'm seeing tomorrow thus far is ND +3 but I'm going to have to wait for updated data before pulling the trigger on that one.

[DuncHen22]

I like all the continued positive talk on here boys... Just as my own input into the conversation I personally try to avoid lines around Pick 'Em all the way up to +2 cuz I figure if KenPom thinks the win by 1... and they are getting a point... there is not much of advantage there... I mean how often does a team really lose by 1 or 2 points when fouling almost ALWAYS comes into play at the end of games...

I was wondering how anyone else felt about this and if DuncHen22 might have any idea in his stats how teams from Pick 'Em to +2 have done thus far this season... If you haven't been watching that all year I understand... but was just wondering if maybe u have...

Anyways... I look through the KenPom plays whose lines are +2.5 through +9.5 each day... and then lines from -1 through -9.5 and either play every game (if there are 5 or so plays on the day) or do some capping on those games to pick 6 or 7 if there is a 20 play card like there was Saturday...

Anyway thanks again to everyone in this thread and let's keep the conversations flowing as new ideas being discussed can only help to increase the proficiency of the system that is already working very well!!!

I have not looked at that but it's a good thought. I'll take a look at and see what I find.

[Brp27345]

All I know boys is I started betting with a local for the first time (my friend actually financially backed a local and is giving me the opportunity to bet though him) ... over my first 3 weeks of betting I had my ups and downs but in the end was down $250 dollars to him total over the 3 weeks...

My bets are either 20 or 40 bucks so nothing serious... but thanks to this thread... (as well as a 4-0 NFL Wildcard Weekend)... I am currently up $435 dollars this week with the betting week ending Monday... getting me not only out of the hole but putting me up $185 for the month as a whole as well...

Cheers again to all of you!