Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

**DuncHen22** · 01-07-11, 10:27 PM

Yeah, Axis, I've got 22 right now but maybe I missed one. The other disconcerting thing is they're all tier 1's, which seems a bit odd. I think I'm going to wait for the updated data though...

**LockPickMaster** · 01-07-11, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

Yeah, Axis, I've got 22 right now but maybe I missed one. The other disconcerting thing is they're all tier 1's, which seems a bit odd. I think I'm going to wait for the updated data though...

What time will you have your plays for tomorrow up. I gotta work in the morning. Thanks DuncHen

**DuncHen22** · 01-07-11, 10:33 PM

I'll at least post what I have as of now, and then I'll update it as the new data comes out by adding lines or taking them away.

Tier 1:
Cal +1 (2)
Wofford +1.5 (2.5)
UNC-Greensboro +3.5 (4.5)
Eastern Ill +1 (2)
Tennessee PK (2)
Providence PK (2)
LSU +2 (4)
Middle Tenn -1 (2)
Elon -1.5 (2.5)
UC-Davis -2 (2)
Alabama -4 (2)
Ball St -3.5 (2.5)
Portland St -6 (2)
Vandy -5.5 (3.5)
BC -5.5 (3.5)
Kentucky -5.5 (4.5)
Northern Colorado -7.5 (2.5)
James Madison -6 (4)
Utah State -7 (4)
Pitt -8 (4)
Arkansas-LR -8 (4)
Central Florida -8 (5)

Tier 3:
[added]UTEP +5 (2)

Let me know if you see any mistakes or if I left anything out.

**Brp27345** · 01-07-11, 11:20 PM

Holy crap man... I will take a look tonight for ya and see if I can help out in this process at all...

bet loyola tonight only but thanks to u starting this thread thats 10-1 for me now in my last 11 college games...

Appreciate it again and I will try to help out as much as I can so we can do this as a group!

**DuncHen22** · 01-07-11, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by LockPickMaster

What time will you have your plays for tomorrow up. I gotta work in the morning. Thanks DuncHen

Haha, looks like I kinda answered your question while you were asking it.

Use those picks at your own risk though, as they are based off data updated through 1/6. We may see a few of those drop off with updated data.

If KP updates his data before 1AM Pacific I could have them up before I go to bed, otherwise it'll probably be 9am Pacific.

**DuncHen22** · 01-08-11, 12:12 AM

If it isn't updated by the time I go to bed, hopefully some others (from the east coast) can step in so no one misses any early games.

There are definitely pros and cons to living on the west coast as a sports fan. This is one of the cons.

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 12:18 AM

whats the # in parenthesis

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 12:30 AM

anyone??

**Brp27345** · 01-08-11, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by rochestertitans

whats the # in parenthesis

difference between the KenPom line and the books opening line... nice to see ya in here Roch...

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 12:39 AM

so the higher the number the better the play?

**Brp27345** · 01-08-11, 12:47 AM

that would be logical yea... there is a breakdown on one of the pages on how each numerical difference has done this year... but in general the higher the number the stronger the play... if I were you I would do what I have been doing... just take all of the games... put in your research... and then pick your favs using this is a tool... gone 10-1 in 4 days using that kind of a strategy...

Wouldn't put too much stock in the higher numbers being that much stronger I guess I would say...

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 12:54 AM

i dont got time for the card 2maro

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 12:54 AM

lookin to tail some1 for 1st time

**Brp27345** · 01-08-11, 12:59 AM

been workin so far... worth a shot...

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 01:00 AM

i want 3 plays only though for 2maro

**Brp27345** · 01-08-11, 01:05 AM

need to bet em now?

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 01:08 AM

by noon

**Brp27345** · 01-08-11, 01:13 AM

ill post mine by noon... getting up at 9 a.m. Eastern to do my research using these as a base... other guys will post their opinions before then on here as well... watever u end up doing gl...

**rochestertitans** · 01-08-11, 01:14 AM

u2!!

**DuncHen22** · 01-08-11, 01:36 AM

KP has his data updated and it looks like everything stayed. I had one Tier 3 added (UTEP +5 (2)). BOL for anyone daring enough to play all of them. Haha!

**Aussiecapper101** · 01-08-11, 03:35 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

KP has his data updated and it looks like everything stayed. I had one Tier 3 added (UTEP +5 (2)). BOL for anyone daring enough to play all of them. Haha!

Hmm sounds like a challenge!

**man_of_steel** · 01-08-11, 04:00 AM

good plays here for tomoro. Gonna b a good day

**DuncHen22** · 01-08-11, 04:30 AM

Originally posted by Aussiecapper101

Hmm sounds like a challenge!

Haha! A bit too many for me... I can play half though.... and I am playing all of them with SBR points.

BOL!!

**kanak_attack** · 01-08-11, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

Sorry, I thought I mentioned it. I've been a little stressed lately so forgive my absent-mindedness.

I use Ken Pomeroy's predictions and compare them to the given spreads. Then I only select games where the spread is less than 10 and the the difference between KP and the spread is 2 or more.

For Tier 1 plays: I only play favorites (as predicted by KP).
For Tier 2 plays: Include all tier 1 plays plus home underdogs.
For Tier 3 plays: Include all tier 1 and 2 plays plus away underdogs.

That's basically it. I'm also constantly looking for other factors to either add to or subtract from. For example, a 2pt differential between KP and actual may be too low, but I want to just follow it right now (2pt diff plays are 8-2 in tier 3 thus far though).

Although I realize now, tier 2 and 3 plays may be a bit mixed up at the moment since there are neutral court tournaments going on. I'll have to go back and double check those in a little bit to make sure I've gotten it right.

do you think you could post an example with games cuz im looking at that kenpom shit and the normal lines and im confused as shit. if you could post when u have time it would be nice. if not its cool too. KEEP IT ROLLING AND GOOD LUCK

**xtrzor** · 01-08-11, 07:02 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I'll at least post what I have as of now, and then I'll update it as the new data comes out by adding lines or taking them away.

Tier 1:
Cal +1 (2)
Wofford +1.5 (2.5)
UNC-Greensboro +3.5 (4.5)
Eastern Ill +1 (2)
Tennessee PK (2)
Providence PK (2)
LSU +2 (4)
Middle Tenn -1 (2)
Elon -1.5 (2.5)
UC-Davis -2 (2)
Alabama -4 (2)
Ball St -3.5 (2.5)
Portland St -6 (2)
Vandy -5.5 (3.5)
BC -5.5 (3.5)
Kentucky -5.5 (4.5)
Northern Colorado -7.5 (2.5)
James Madison -6 (4)
Utah State -7 (4)
Pitt -8 (4)
Arkansas-LR -8 (4)
Central Florida -8 (5)

Tier 3:
[added]UTEP +5 (2)

Let me know if you see any mistakes or if I left anything out.

hey.

so here are games for today right ? we should bet them on those spread lines if we can get them right? todays card is much bigger than usually? can you tell me what the numbers in brackets means ? for example: Central Florida -8 (5) ... so what is this number : (5) ?

thx in advance for answering my questions and good luck with your system/play.

ps. sorry for my bad english, I'm just from a small country in Europe so

**drfunkmaster** · 01-08-11, 07:17 AM

interesting info here

**Aussiecapper101** · 01-08-11, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by xtrzor

hey.

so here are games for today right ? we should bet them on those spread lines if we can get them right? todays card is much bigger than usually? can you tell me what the numbers in brackets means ? for example: Central Florida -8 (5) ... so what is this number : (5) ?

thx in advance for answering my questions and good luck with your system/play.

ps. sorry for my bad english, I'm just from a small country in Europe so

I'll answer the question for him.. The number in the brackets in how far off the lines are according to the ken pomeroy predictions, so if a team are a -2 and 3 in brackets then it means he has predicted the spread higher than the book is giving, therefore it's a good bet ( according to the system)

**TxBulldog** · 01-08-11, 11:25 AM

For those who wish to cut the number of plays today, I will post those who make it through my secondary filter. I have my own set of PR's. I have been tracking plays that qualify in both systems since the first of the year and am currently at 75% in the very short time frame. Today, there would be 13 plays:

Afternoon:
Cal
Utah St.
BC
Kentucky
Ball St.
UTEP
LSU

Nite:
Providence
Mid Tenn
UC-Davis
E. Ill.
N. Colo
Port St.

Let's see if we can keep the roll going!

**Fins007** · 01-08-11, 12:23 PM

TXBulldog,

Thanks for the cut-down list....That helps!!!Whew!!1 question......Kentucky was the original
pick not Georgia........Is that a change???Thanks again..

**DuncHen22** · 01-08-11, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by kanak_attack

do you think you could post an example with games cuz im looking at that kenpom shit and the normal lines and im confused as shit. if you could post when u have time it would be nice. if not its cool too. KEEP IT ROLLING AND GOOD LUCK

No problem. Let me know if this helps, or not.

So you can go to KP's daily predictions by clicking on "FanMatch" at the top, then you get this: http://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php

Let's take an example from today, Pittsburgh.

You will see Pitt's game listed like this:
17 l 40 Marquette at 7 Pittsburgh l Pittsburgh 80-68 (87%) l 2:00 PM l Pittsburgh, PA l Petersen Events Center l 54.9

You can poke around his site to figure out what all of those numbers mean but all we are interested in is "Pittsburgh 80-68." Take the difference and you see Pitt is predicted to beat Marq by 12 points. Then look at the line and we see the books have put it at -8. That's a 4 point differential so I list it as a play like this:
Pitt -8 (4)

And it's a tier 1 play since they are the favorite to win.
If KP is calling the home underdog to cover the spread it's a tier 2, and if he's calling an away underdog to cover it's a tier 3.

I should mention I use the terms "fave" and "dog" to refer to KP's predictions. So if KP is projecting California to win by 1 and the books have Cal at +1, I call them the "fave" and list it as a tier 1 play. Not sure if I should do this but that's what I have been doing.

I hope that helps! If not, feel free to ask anything else!

**Axis** · 01-08-11, 01:09 PM

Let's go!! So many plays today...had to go through them and weed some out...

Gonna play some of the early afternoon...see how we do, then wager on the night games...

G/L to all!

**TxBulldog** · 01-08-11, 01:15 PM

My bad...Kentucky is the play!

**Fins007** · 01-08-11, 01:18 PM

No problem.......Just want to make sure....Thanks again for all you and everyone on this site does!!

**Heandog** · 01-08-11, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

For those who wish to cut the number of plays today, I will post those who make it through my secondary filter. I have my own set of PR's. I have been tracking plays that qualify in both systems since the first of the year and am currently at 75% in the very short time frame. Today, there would be 13 plays:

Afternoon:
Cal
Utah St.
BC
Kentucky
Ball St.
UTEP
LSU

Nite:
Providence
Mid Tenn
UC-Davis
E. Ill.
N. Colo
Port St.

Let's see if we can keep the roll going!

will you be updating your plays daily also so that we can compare to DUNCHEN

**tonycarr** · 01-08-11, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

For those who wish to cut the number of plays today, I will post those who make it through my secondary filter. I have my own set of PR's. I have been tracking plays that qualify in both systems since the first of the year and am currently at 75% in the very short time frame. Today, there would be 13 plays:

Afternoon:
Cal
Utah St.
BC
Kentucky
Ball St.
UTEP
LSU

Nite:
Providence
Mid Tenn
UC-Davis
E. Ill.
N. Colo
Port St.

Let's see if we can keep the roll going!

I dont know what the 2nd filter is but you were 6-1 in the early games the one you marked wrong was your only loss.

time for the late games and 2 more look like winners already.

Im also hoping you stay and perhaps share some information too.