Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

[DuncHen22]

Just started tracking a new system. I probably won't actually play these until next year because I want a good sample size. I may play with some monopoly money, or a small amount of money later down the road, but that's it. Just remember this is for tracking purposes only for now.

I started tracking these 12/11/10, 8 days ago. There are 3 systems (I'll call them "tiers") I'm following because I'm not yet sure which will be the most profitable (if any).

Tier 1: 12-3 (80%) +8.7 units
Tier 2: 14-4 (78%) +9.6 units
Tier 3: 17-8 (68%) +8.2 units

Here are my previous plays:


The bolded plays are the ones added on top of the previous tier.

I'm still worried I'll see a regression toward the mean here but we'll just track and see.

[DuncHen22]

Plays for Sunday:

Tier 1:
Montana State -2
Florida Atlantic -6.5

[DuncHen22]

Plays for Sunday:

Tier 1:
Montana State -2 LOSS
Florida Atlantic -6.5LOSS

Man, who didn't see that coming?

Ah well. I told myself I'd stick with the tracking until this hit 50% or close to it. So we'll keep it going for now.

Tier 1: 12-5 +6.5 units
Tier 2: 14-6 +7.4 units
Tier 3: 17-10 +6.0 units

[DuncHen22]

12/20/10

tier 1:
Valpo -8.5

[Aussiecapper101]

GL.. hope it works out for you I'll be keeping an eye on it

[Hanger]

Interesting......

[DuncHen22]

Working on all the games today but I wanted to get the first play out before the game started:

Rice -8 (Tier 1)

[DuncHen22]

Okay, that didn't take as long as I thought. Here are all of my plays today. I'm guessing this day will make or break my system. If today is absolutely pathetic (i.e., <40%) I'll just shut up and stop.

Tier 1:
Rice -8
Miami (FL) -5.5
E. Illinois +2
Cincy -7.5
Austin Peay -2
NM State -8

Tier 2:
Arkansas LR +5

Tier 3:
St. Francis +9
UNLV +4.5

Remember, each tier contains the plays from the previous tiers, it's just that Tier 1 is more selective than Tier 2, which is more selective than Tier 3. BOL!

[zebo1337]

Taking UNLV and Miami FL, BOL to you my friend!

[zebo1337]

BAcked out like a girl and taking Kansas st for the bounce back. =(

[DuncHen22]

BAcked out like a girl and taking Kansas st for the bounce back. =(

Haha! No worries. BOL to ya!

[Aussiecapper101]

Looks like they went alright would like to see them posted again

[DuncHen22]

Looks like they went alright would like to see them posted again

Thanks! Yeah, it was decent. Sorry about the weird timing on getting plays up here though. Holidays are just difficult. I'm not too worried as I'm only tracking these for now. But after the holidays I'll get on a better schedule and put more time and effort into it.

Yesterday's results:
Tier 1: 3-3 -0.3 units
Tier 2: 3-4 -1.4 units
Tier 3: 5-4 +0.6 units

Overall:
Tier 1: 15-9 +5.1 units
Tier 2: 17-11 +4.9 units
Tier 3: 22-15 +5.5 units

[DuncHen22]

Today's plays:

Tier 1:
St Louis -1
UCF -3.5
Bradley +1
North Colorado -5

Tier 2
Georgia Southern +5.5

Tier 3
East Carolina +3.5

I know St. Louis already happened and I missed it, but like I've said I'm only tracking these right now, so I'm not too concerned about posting plays that have already happened. Even if they lost I would have counted it, since cheating would only be hurting myself.

BOL!

[Joe Sharp]

This doesn't really help anyone unless they know how/why you select the plays....

[DuncHen22]

This doesn't really help anyone unless they know how/why you select the plays....

Sorry, I thought I mentioned it. I've been a little stressed lately so forgive my absent-mindedness.

I use Ken Pomeroy's predictions and compare them to the given spreads. Then I only select games where the spread is less than 10 and the the difference between KP and the spread is 2 or more.

For Tier 1 plays: I only play favorites (as predicted by KP).
For Tier 2 plays: Include all tier 1 plays plus home underdogs.
For Tier 3 plays: Include all tier 1 and 2 plays plus away underdogs.

That's basically it. I'm also constantly looking for other factors to either add to or subtract from. For example, a 2pt differential between KP and actual may be too low, but I want to just follow it right now (2pt diff plays are 8-2 in tier 3 thus far though).

Although I realize now, tier 2 and 3 plays may be a bit mixed up at the moment since there are neutral court tournaments going on. I'll have to go back and double check those in a little bit to make sure I've gotten it right.

[goblinburner]

Sorry, I thought I mentioned it. I've been a little stressed lately so forgive my absent-mindedness.

I use Ken Pomeroy's predictions and compare them to the given spreads. Then I only select games where the spread is less than 10 and the the difference between KP and the spread is 2 or more.

For Tier 1 plays: I only play favorites (as predicted by KP).
For Tier 2 plays: Include all tier 1 plays plus home underdogs.
For Tier 3 plays: Include all tier 1 and 2 plays plus away underdogs.

That's basically it. I'm also constantly looking for other factors to either add to or subtract from. For example, a 2pt differential between KP and actual may be too low, but I want to just follow it right now (2pt diff plays are 8-2 in tier 3 thus far though).

Although I realize now, tier 2 and 3 plays may be a bit mixed up at the moment since there are neutral court tournaments going on. I'll have to go back and double check those in a little bit to make sure I've gotten it right.

good stuff man keep it posting

[DuncHen22]

Today's plays:

Tier 1:
St Louis -1 WIN
UCF -3.5WIN
Bradley +1WIN
North Colorado -5 LOSS

Tier 2
Georgia Southern +5.5 WIN

Tier 3
East Carolina +3.5 WIN

Tier 1: 3-1 +1.9 units
Tier 2: 4-1 +2.9 units
Tier 3: 5-1 +3.9 units

Overall:
Tier 1: 18-10 +7.0 units
Tier 2: 21-12 +7.8 units
Tier 3: 27-16 +9.4 units

Great day today! So far it looks like Tier 3 is the best, even though it has a worse %. We'll keep on tracking though.

[PP]

Hmm very interesting, a little different than the other KenPom system on here that EaglesPhan is doing, which is hitting at a 53.4% win rate. This ones def got a lot more games, I will def keep posted to this thread, nice work Dunc

[Blue_Chips]

Good job! Good luck tomorrow!

[Aussiecapper101]

didnt take any but good stuff

[DuncHen22]

didnt take any but good stuff

That's alright, I'm not actually playing these yet either. Thanks though!

Lines are starting to come in but I'm traveling today so I'll get as many as I can and anything I miss I'll just have to look up after the games.

Tier 1:
East Tennessee State +1
Miami FL -7.5
Rice +3

[DuncHen22]

Tier 2:
San Fran +5.5

[DuncHen22]

Tier 3:
St Louis +6

[DuncHen22]

Tier 1:
East Tennessee State +1 LOSS
Miami FL -7.5WIN
Rice +3WIN

Tier 2:
San Fran +5.5WIN

Tier 3:
St Louis +6LOSS

Tier 1: 2-1 +0.9 units
Tier 2: 3-1 +1.9 units
Tier 3: 3-2 +0.8 units

Another good day! Hopefully I can keep things rolling over the holidays, although it'll be tricky tracking these while I'm traveling.

Overall:
T1: 20-11 (65%) +7.9 UNITS
T2: 24-13 (65%) +9.7 UNITS
T3: 30-18 (63%) +10.2 UNITS

[southpaw74]

Thanks dunc! Have a great Christmas

[DuncHen22]

KP doesn't have any games listed today so we'll see you on the 26th!

[DuncHen22]

Apparently KP DID have games for yesterday and today. He just put them up later and I didn't check again.

12/24

Tier 2:
Col St +5.5 WIN
Texas St +8 PUSH

Tier 2 (and 3)
1-0-1 +1.0 UNITS

Overall:
T1: 20-11 (65%) +7.9 UNITS
T2: 25-13 (66%) +10.7 UNITS
T3: 31-18 (63%) +11.2 UNITS

12/25

Tier 1:
Miss St +1.5
Baylor -2.5


Have a Merry Christmas!!

[southie]

gl on this

[DukeJohn]

Good luck, seems a little hard to test without being able to back test it for a few years before. Hope you are able to stick with it for a couple of years and it works out for ya

BoL,

[DuncHen22]

Good luck, seems a little hard to test without being able to back test it for a few years before. Hope you are able to stick with it for a couple of years and it works out for ya

BoL,

Yeah that's kinda what I plan on doing. I feel if it works out for the rest of this year that's a pretty solid test. I trust KP's system and have looked at the stats on his success rate so I feel like that has validity on it's own. If I actually played it next year, though, I'd be very cautious.

Anyway, 0-2 today, so add 2 losses and subract 2.2 units from the previous records. That's okay, though. Still 9-6 in the last 15 games.

[DuncHen22]

12/27

Tier 1:
Pitt -7.5

[DuncHen22]

PITT was a winner yesterday!

Not a whole lot going on today, although a bunch of tier 3's popped up for some reason.

12/28

Tier 1:
Colorado St -4

Tier 3:
Kent State +4
UC-Davis +3
Siena +4
Ball State +6

[DuncHen22]

Records right now are:

T1: 21-13 (62%) +6.7 units
T2: 26-15 (63%) +9.5 units
T3: 32-20 (62%) +10 units

[donnydoucher]

I like the system