Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

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  • Fins007
    SBR High Roller
    • 01-04-11
    • 104

    #736
    AC,

    I agree with what your saying. I buy 1/2 points where I can...Everything helps.

    Just curious on how it has fared so far? It doesn't seem like it gets a tremendous amount of
    plays per day which is good in the fact that it is controlled. With a possible 6 tomorrow,
    is that a lot for one day? This seems high for one day...Do you bet on them all?

    Also, what do you guys typically bet (generally) with plays like this?

    I'm not trying to be nosy but just to find a comfort zone with this system. I have followed it
    and seen success but as you said your playing less than average squads. Kind of like the battle for the "toilet bowl."

    Let me know. Thanks!!

    Fins.
    Comment
    • GGZOLA
      SBR MVP
      • 06-30-06
      • 1118

      #737
      hey fellas, hope everyone has a good sunday (besides this debaucle of a weekend)
      my recap (UNC pending but chalk it as a loss.)
      1 units plays 2-2, -.2 units
      1.5 unit plays 0-1, -1.65 units total day -1.85 units.
      Inaugural week record (kenpom+my filters) 10-7 neutral line move, 7-4 postive line move. net +6.20 units.
      Gonna lower my unit play a bit not fully sold on this; dont expect 6-0, etc. every day but clearly lot more games need to be cleared b4 assessing true value, if any.
      Comment
      • Aussiecapper101
        SBR MVP
        • 09-04-10
        • 2220

        #738
        Originally posted by Fins007
        AC,

        I agree with what your saying. I buy 1/2 points where I can...Everything helps.

        Just curious on how it has fared so far? It doesn't seem like it gets a tremendous amount of
        plays per day which is good in the fact that it is controlled. With a possible 6 tomorrow,
        is that a lot for one day? This seems high for one day...Do you bet on them all?

        Also, what do you guys typically bet (generally) with plays like this?

        I'm not trying to be nosy but just to find a comfort zone with this system. I have followed it
        and seen success but as you said your playing less than average squads. Kind of like the battle for the "toilet bowl."

        Let me know. Thanks!!

        Fins.
        Hey I'll definitely answer your questions when I got home from work in a couple of hours but for now I can only see 2 plays for the kine system, elon college +6 (trending down) and the citadel (trending up should be able to get better line later) Remember vegas doesn't always set lines for these crappy games so there is only a few that u can bet on.. Speak later anyway
        Comment
        • Underwraps
          SBR Rookie
          • 01-16-11
          • 22

          #739
          Aussie, The Citadel game is a kine play, but samford is a kenpom play. Kenpom has -8 samford
          Comment
          • DuncHen22
            SBR MVP
            • 11-20-09
            • 1079

            #740
            Another depressing day. It doesn't help that I'm currently sick so all I was able to do today was sit on the couch and watch my picks lose one-by-one.

            2-6 today and 0-3 in the accuscore filtered plays. That's nearly 10 units gone in 2 days. Hopefully it will pick up during the week... or this may be a system that should only be used before mid-january?? Only time will tell.
            Comment
            • dingbat
              SBR Hustler
              • 01-04-11
              • 79

              #741
              i dont trust accuscore, get well!
              Comment
              • Axis
                SBR MVP
                • 01-08-09
                • 1255

                #742
                Originally posted by DuncHen22
                Another depressing day. It doesn't help that I'm currently sick so all I was able to do today was sit on the couch and watch my picks lose one-by-one.

                2-6 today and 0-3 in the accuscore filtered plays. That's nearly 10 units gone in 2 days. Hopefully it will pick up during the week... or this may be a system that should only be used before mid-january?? Only time will tell.
                Most of the time systems like this are streaky...when I first started doing this...I only did the plays...I had to start adding filters and such because they always hit cold streaks and such...

                As long as we're smart about it there is money to be made.

                I only like 3 games tomorrow.
                Comment
                • Aussiecapper101
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-04-10
                  • 2220

                  #743
                  Originally posted by Underwraps
                  Aussie, The Citadel game is a kine play, but samford is a kenpom play. Kenpom has -8 samford
                  Good stuff your right so guys please take note of this, citadel could be a bad line as I use kenpom to filter out kine system plays (I feel as if it let's me know when there is a bad line on one of these pathetic teams) I have gone 1-3 against kenpom when trying to stick to the kine so I wont be playing citadel.. It might even be a good idea to take Samford at -6 if we still can.. The only play for tomorrow is looking like elon but u have to be quick to get 6 if your taking..
                  Comment
                  • DuncHen22
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-20-09
                    • 1079

                    #744
                    Originally posted by Axis

                    Most of the time systems like this are streaky...when I first started doing this...I only did the plays...I had to start adding filters and such because they always hit cold streaks and such...

                    As long as we're smart about it there is money to be made.

                    I only like 3 games tomorrow.
                    Thanks for the little pep talk! Hopefully we'll get it turned around!

                    Here are the system plays and surprisingly they all pass through the AccuScore filter as well:

                    1/17 plays


                    Idaho +5 (3.5)
                    Loyola-MD +3 (2)
                    Kansas -3.5 (2.5)
                    Samford -6 (2)
                    College of Charleston -7.5 (2.5)
                    Comment
                    • Aussiecapper101
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-04-10
                      • 2220

                      #745
                      Originally posted by Fins007
                      AC,

                      I agree with what your saying. I buy 1/2 points where I can...Everything helps.

                      Just curious on how it has fared so far? It doesn't seem like it gets a tremendous amount of
                      plays per day which is good in the fact that it is controlled. With a possible 6 tomorrow,
                      is that a lot for one day? This seems high for one day...Do you bet on them all?

                      Also, what do you guys typically bet (generally) with plays like this?

                      I'm not trying to be nosy but just to find a comfort zone with this system. I have followed it
                      and seen success but as you said your playing less than average squads. Kind of like the battle for the "toilet bowl."

                      Let me know. Thanks!!

                      Fins.
                      Alright so.. On a weekday there is usually about 2 or 3 plays and on the weekends or Thursday there is up to about 8, in February we will probably see 10 some days, it is good for exactly that reason there isnt too many.. And yes I do bet them all I will live and die by this system as like heandog I was impressed last year and cant see it not having similar results this year so I basically held back all year waiting to bet these games (more so february) So at the moment I am betting to win 1.5 units which for me is about $170 to win about $150 or thereabouts, it is a strict system for me though no play is better than the next I never differ even if I dont like a play but it fits the Kine system I just say fukk it and roll with it Ive seen crazier things happen.. By the start of February I'll be betting 2 units and by Feb 14th I'll be in for at least 3 units each play as long as I have weathered all storms beforehand.. It definitely is like toilet bowl games the closer it gets to the season end but I dont care as long as Im making some money right.. March madness will be my time to back the top teams or following anything that dunc and the guys come up with in the near future.

                      Hope that answers some questions for you and you should come up with your own filters where necessary.

                      So lets get this other new system back up and running too guys BOL

                      Remember Im not playing the citadel game tomorrow only Elon college as part of this system, and Ive noticed that Idaho +5 is 1 point off being a Kine system play but it will never touch 6. Im definately going to play it though being so close and all
                      Comment
                      • Heandog
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-30-09
                        • 1634

                        #746
                        Originally posted by Aussiecapper101
                        Heandog might be able to help out with an accurate record for the last week or so
                        HI guys the record so far as of 1/16 going 1-2 sunday I have it at 18-11-2 up to this point and this go back just a little over two weeks ,Better days are coming but not a bad start.
                        Comment
                        • peterpan19
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-02-08
                          • 3377

                          #747
                          Originally posted by DuncHen22
                          Thanks for the little pep talk! Hopefully we'll get it turned around! Here are the system plays and surprisingly they all pass through the AccuScore filter as well: 1/17 plays Idaho +5 (3.5) Loyola-MD +3 (2) Kansas -3.5 (2.5) Samford -6 (2) College of Charleston -7.5 (2.5)
                          Samford opened -6.5 or worse on pretty much all big books (pinny, bookmaker, thegreek, 5 dimes)
                          Comment
                          • Underwraps
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 01-16-11
                            • 22

                            #748
                            Heandog, thanks for the update.

                            Aussie, you mentioned Idaho would be a kine play if the line was Fresno -6 but don't both teams have to be

                            rated under 180? I Idaho is rated at 160 and Fresno 194.
                            Comment
                            • Underwraps
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 01-16-11
                              • 22

                              #749
                              Bilge double post
                              Comment
                              • Aussiecapper101
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-04-10
                                • 2220

                                #750
                                Originally posted by peterpan19
                                Samford opened -6.5 or worse on pretty much all big books (pinny, bookmaker, thegreek, 5 dimes)
                                U sure? I seen Samford -6 all day on pinny?
                                Comment
                                • Aussiecapper101
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-04-10
                                  • 2220

                                  #751
                                  Originally posted by Underwraps
                                  Bilge double post
                                  If the team getting points is ranked better than the team giving them away and the team giving them away is higher than 180 this being 194 then I can't see no reason not to take the points and the better ranked team unless for big injuries or something? It won't hit 6 anyway but im gonna drop a little on it because of the situation.. Smells like Fresno st are getting a little bit too much favor in this game
                                  Comment
                                  • Underwraps
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 01-16-11
                                    • 22

                                    #752
                                    "Smells like Fresno st are getting a little bit too much favor in this game"

                                    Yup, line is inflated and I'm not sure why. I try to stay away from the WAC, PAC, and WCC conferences when I see shady lines like this.
                                    Comment
                                    • Fins007
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 01-04-11
                                      • 104

                                      #753
                                      AC,

                                      Thanks for the info. Very clear!!! I'll look for your picks and input so it matches.
                                      I try to research games, matchups etc. What other filters do you use? This thread uses
                                      Accuscore but not sure that it good. Any suggestions?

                                      Thanks again......lets all try to get this thing back on track....
                                      Comment
                                      • tonycarr
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-21-10
                                        • 155

                                        #754
                                        Thanks for all the updates guys. I ended up going with E Mich and Auburn lost them both. Was just to much FB going on. I see only a few games today so time to check the lines see what I can get.
                                        Comment
                                        • skipwalker
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 11-19-10
                                          • 31

                                          #755
                                          FYI, all, Loyola-MD is at 2PM EST today.
                                          Comment
                                          • Aussiecapper101
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-04-10
                                            • 2220

                                            #756
                                            Originally posted by Fins007
                                            AC,

                                            Thanks for the info. Very clear!!! I'll look for your picks and input so it matches.
                                            I try to research games, matchups etc. What other filters do you use? This thread uses
                                            Accuscore but not sure that it good. Any suggestions?

                                            Thanks again......lets all try to get this thing back on track....
                                            No offense to anyone using accuscore but I honestly think it sucks, it's hard to have filters for this kine system but the only one I'm using at the moment is just like today kenpom saying that Samford should be around +8 but Vegas only giving me 6? I'll sit that one out. As I said before I stuck with the 'bad lines' before and I'm 1-3.. When the professor guy originally came up with this system there was a certain conference he didn't play but I can't remember or work out which one it was, hopefully it doesn't bite me in the arse! So not many filters other than that for now
                                            Comment
                                            • Aussiecapper101
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-04-10
                                              • 2220

                                              #757
                                              Originally posted by Underwraps
                                              "Smells like Fresno st are getting a little bit too much favor in this game"

                                              Yup, line is inflated and I'm not sure why. I try to stay away from the WAC, PAC, and WCC conferences when I see shady lines like this.
                                              U could be right there but I already locked it in for 1x gonna have to ride it now! GL today
                                              Comment
                                              • jerry12345
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 01-12-11
                                                • 20

                                                #758
                                                Updated Line movement results from yesterday’s games

                                                Positive – 44 – 24 = 65% (Rounded up)

                                                No difference – 18 – 12 = 60% (Rounded up)

                                                Negative – 30 – 35 = 46% (Rounded up)

                                                yesterday was pretty grim all round.
                                                Comment
                                                • GGZOLA
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-30-06
                                                  • 1118

                                                  #759
                                                  lots of early line moevement books gonna make us pay for taking kansas, jumped 1 pt to -4.5 (+)
                                                  idaho +5 -same (n)
                                                  samford -7 now,from -6 (+)
                                                  loyola-MD +3 now +4 (-) danger
                                                  chol charleston -7.5 (n)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Cranium
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 09-05-08
                                                    • 363

                                                    #760
                                                    Love how this thread remains positive despite a blip in progress over the last 2 days. Continued success and thanks for all the work you guys do for the thread!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BennyFang
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-27-09
                                                      • 1412

                                                      #761
                                                      Originally posted by Cranium
                                                      Love how this thread remains positive despite a blip in progress over the last 2 days. Continued success and thanks for all the work you guys do for the thread!
                                                      Agreed, IMO it's just hard for the pundits to bash a mathematical system as opposed to a "capper's" analysis.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • peterpan19
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-02-08
                                                        • 3377

                                                        #762
                                                        Originally posted by Aussiecapper101
                                                        U sure? I seen Samford -6 all day on pinny?
                                                        yes it opened that high, jut check sbrlines.com

                                                        Originally posted by GGZOLA
                                                        lots of early line moevement books gonna make us pay for taking kansas state, jumped 1 pt to -4.5 (+) idaho +5 -same (n) samford -7 now,from -6 (+) loyola-MD +3 now +4 (-) danger chol charleston -7.5 (n)
                                                        samford is not positve, never should have been a play, opened -7.5 pinny, -6.5 5dimes
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Axis
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-08-09
                                                          • 1255

                                                          #763
                                                          Yupp, Vegas opened it at -7.5...it just took a plunge real quickly.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • GGZOLA
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-30-06
                                                            • 1118

                                                            #764
                                                            ok i stand corrected on that one...didnt have time to see openers last night, so went with morning lines.
                                                            Scratch that one.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Fins007
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 01-04-11
                                                              • 104

                                                              #765
                                                              So at this point, Idaho and Coll of Charleston are the best plays if your going to take them....
                                                              Based on movement and conflicting lines (Vegas etc)........Is this correct?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Axis
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-08-09
                                                                • 1255

                                                                #766
                                                                I know Idaho is a system play...but I'd be careful with it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • GGZOLA
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-30-06
                                                                  • 1118

                                                                  #767
                                                                  idaho +5 1unit
                                                                  c of c -7.5 1 unit
                                                                  kansas -4 1.5 units

                                                                  thats all for today on my end.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jnsbanman
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 01-08-11
                                                                    • 526

                                                                    #768
                                                                    Time to get back on track after another strange weekend.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Heandog
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-30-09
                                                                      • 1634

                                                                      #769
                                                                      Originally posted by Aussiecapper101
                                                                      Good stuff your right so guys please take note of this, citadel could be a bad line as I use kenpom to filter out kine system plays (I feel as if it let's me know when there is a bad line on one of these pathetic teams) I have gone 1-3 against kenpom when trying to stick to the kine so I wont be playing citadel.. It might even be a good idea to take Samford at -6 if we still can.. The only play for tomorrow is looking like elon but u have to be quick to get 6 if your taking..
                                                                      regarding the Kine system the number is 6 if the if the closing line is less than 6 I will not track it in system tally that is just the way I have been doing it I have the record @18-11-2 and one of the plays was the Elon game last week I have it marked as a push the line was 6-,7,7- ,some people lost -I pushed and some people won with the 7- .So if 6 is the number I will track it as a Kine Play regardless of the other system. I would just make it a no play for me if it should show up on Dunchenn or Tx plays no biggy plenty more games out there.So as of now tonites plays are Elon+7 and Citadel +7 I like Aussue will not be playing the Citadel game as it goes agianst the Dunchenn plays that is one of my filters ,and if we are both on the same play I feel it is a stronger play.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • sheffield77
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 04-23-10
                                                                        • 336

                                                                        #770
                                                                        thanks for the plays
                                                                        Comment
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