Lapi7 don't put out too much details, just chillidog plays, nice trackin though
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deedrick,
you came off as being a jerk to me...it seems you wanted to rub it in being 0-6 or whatever. Just thought you were complaining already after 1 off-night, thats all really. If I misunderstood I apologize. It was a bad night for all of us, I'm willing to move on. Lets get'em next day.Comment -
OK, DAILY RECAP (as painful as it is to post)
NCAA BB WITH 3: 2-2 WITHOUT:1-3 (SINCE DEC 14TH: 3-2 WITH BUY, 2-3 WITHOUT BUY.)
NBA BB WITH 3: 2-6 WITHOUT: 2-6(SINCE DEC 11TH: 10-7 WITH BUY, 9-8 WITHOUT BUY.)Comment -
Thanks Philly...I appreciate the good insights.
But if you look back in the thread everyone wanted to know how good the selections were without the points. I said that I had kept a record and would post it here if they wanted. Lot's of folks wanted to see the results and requested that I post them when I had finished calculating them...so I'm just fulfilling my end of the deal.
I even got a few PM's requesting the numbers without the points as well.
Anyway...for what it's worth I posted them (with commentary & explanation)
On the dark side of the moon tonight I can say we'll come back with vengeance tomorrow!Comment -
My system didnt fare too hot today either, obviously because the numbers chili provides are essential to the wagers: 8-11 for the day, lost 4.1 units. 20-10 for cbb, 13-13 for nba since saturday. Still early.Comment -
Chlil...good to see ya up and running again...YEAH...let's knock 'em dead tomorrow!Comment -
I have a feeling that even though the record might not be as good without buying points, I think your profit will be much higher in the long run because your not risking all of that juice. Using today as an example, you would have only gained one extra win, but if you didn't buy points you would not be down nearly as much on the day. Unless your strike rate is significantly higher when buying points, it may be more beneficial in the long run to just play the games straight up. What do you guys think about this??Comment -
Ahh, I'm fine. To be honest, I was more feeling bad for the people that tailed the plays. I know that I'll have losing days; I just don't think that I've seen one as bad as today was, but whatever. Tomorrow's a new day, and it's payback time.
Actually, I tracked alot of stuff today, and all of the plays that I tracked up until 1pm did really, really good. It's just the plays that I ran at 5pm tanked hard. No clue why - I didn't do anything different than what I always do. As I said earlier, I guess that it's just variance. Cheme had losing days as well, and I know that I will, too.Comment -
Well just in case you missed it you can go back and read my whole post explaining how I arrived at these numbers but here are the results.
Without buying any extra points.
NBA --Nov 1st to Dec 14th: 112-52
CBB -- Nov 28 to Dec 14th: 67-57
I think smcc's commentary may be right on target.Comment -
I've done the math on this numerous times. The bought points have to swing a loss to a win on 20% of the wins for point-buying to be break even. Right now, the points are saving on more than 20% of my wins. Put in other words, this system needs to hit 62.5% to break even, as opposed to 52.8% to break even on -110 plays. If you're doing this right, you're getting a better implied probability than 62.5%
Hey chili, I didn't get a chance to post today but I got slaughtered too
I've been sick with the flu and so woke up really late, like 4 or 5 pm, and made my plays. Did you say that the early-day plays did well? Because if so, DAMN!!! This is the first time in a really long time I've made afternoon plays, and this is how it goes... haha. Oh well 
I was almost down 25 units today, but all of the late games hit. So I'm "only" down 15. Nice.Comment -
Stop the rape stop the rape!
I added Houston +11 3u later on in the evening and Phoenix -7 2.5u. So overall I was 1-4 today,
-23.5 units
While I think that delving into the profitability of doing the filtering and then making the plays without the point purchasing is a good idea, and I'll definitely be doing so with my spreadsheet at the end of the month (been tracking since December 30th) I also have to say that I've been betting on sports for years and haven't hit at the clip that I have been since I started following this. Overall now I'm 22-5-3 since starting (hitting at 88%) and up 56 original units, including tonight's losses (I've resized my roll obviously, but based off of original unit size I'm up 56). Prior to tonight I was up 102 original units lol
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Never have I come across something before that has been so consistently profitable (was barely break-even over my life) and you really won't find me rethinking something that continually pumps out a consistent statistical edge based off of the lines generated by one of the sharpest sports-books on the planet.
In simpler terms, the sky is far from falling.Comment -
It's pretty great that the one play you felt iffy about ended up winning
For some reason I was really leery of that Boston line too, but confident overall of the games on the day. Just a very bizarre day in the NBA overall. Oddly enough I won everything I bet in the NCAA, but that's overshadowed obviously by the nba bloodbathComment -
Yeah, that Knicks play had me worried for sure! But I trust the numbers generated this evening for all plays and I'd definitely play them again if presented. I was sitting here thinking about the second-guessing of the plays and for some reason David Sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker fell into mind:
Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose.
In sports-betting terminology: every time we have a system-derived edge we're leaving money on the table by not maximizing that particular play at that particular time and only hurting ourselves in the long run.Comment -
man i missed today, what did i miss?Comment -
Stay away from Betus.
Try to cash out!Comment -
I am going to play the lines as soon as possible today and see what happens. I got ******* creamed yesterdayComment -
Damn, I guess we all took a beating last night. I did run the NBA numbers yesterday morning (just tracked them at 10am, 11am, 12pm, and 1pm), and they did very, very well. The CBB barely broke even. Then something weird happend when I ran the numbers at 4pm, and they were the same at 5pm - it's like a switch was flipped, and all the plays switched to the other side, and well, we see what happened.
I've done the math on this numerous times. The bought points have to swing a loss to a win on 20% of the wins for point-buying to be break even. Right now, the points are saving on more than 20% of my wins. Put in other words, this system needs to hit 62.5% to break even, as opposed to 52.8% to break even on -110 plays. If you're doing this right, you're getting a better implied probability than 62.5%
Hey chili, I didn't get a chance to post today but I got slaughtered too I've been sick with the flu and so woke up really late, like 4 or 5 pm, and made my plays. Did you say that the early-day plays did well? Because if so, DAMN!!! This is the first time in a really long time I've made afternoon plays, and this is how it goes... haha. Oh well
I was almost down 25 units today, but all of the late games hit. So I'm "only" down 15. Nice.
I'm not going to be doing anything differently either, and there's nothing to re-think. It was just a bad day, plain and simple. Today's a new day
Stop the rape stop the rape!
I added Houston +11 3u later on in the evening and Phoenix -7 2.5u. So overall I was 1-4 today,-23.5 units
While I think that delving into the profitability of doing the filtering and then making the plays without the point purchasing is a good idea, and I'll definitely be doing so with my spreadsheet at the end of the month (been tracking since December 30th) I also have to say that I've been betting on sports for years and haven't hit at the clip that I have been since I started following this. Overall now I'm 22-5-3 since starting (hitting at 88%) and up 56 original units, including tonight's losses (I've resized my roll obviously, but based off of original unit size I'm up 56). Prior to tonight I was up 102 original units lol.
Never have I come across something before that has been so consistently profitable (was barely break-even over my life) and you really won't find me rethinking something that continually pumps out a consistent statistical edge based off of the lines generated by one of the sharpest sports-books on the planet.
In simpler terms, the sky is far from falling.
Oddly enough, NBA has always been consistently profitable, so who knows what happened last night.It's pretty great that the one play you felt iffy about ended up winning
For some reason I was really leery of that Boston line too, but confident overall of the games on the day. Just a very bizarre day in the NBA overall. Oddly enough I won everything I bet in the NCAA, but that's overshadowed obviously by the nba bloodbath
You missed an epic slaughter!
Don't change anything. Do the lines at the same times and the same way that you've always done them. Nothing's changed; it's just variance.Comment -
Alright Chili but you know i have a small bankroll and it just got smaller lol. Gotta hit soon!Comment -
A rushed, scared gambler is a broke gambler. You don't have to hit all at once- you lost it in increments, you can recover in increments.
With that said, put it all one game and hope for the best
JK Romanov- gotta lighten the mood in here today, yesterday was hard on a lot of people in here.
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Yah, you definitely need a bankroll to do this system. Variance can (and will) kill you. Maybe yesterday's loss was needed, to remind people not to risk too much of their bankroll in this, because losses do occur. I strictly set my betting unit as 0.5% of my bankroll, re-calculated daily.
A rushed, scared gambler is a broke gambler. You don't have to hit all at once- you lost it in increments, you can recover in increments.
With that said, put it all one game and hope for the bestJK Romanov- gotta lighten the mood in here today, yesterday was hard on a lot of people in here.
But whatever, that was yesterday. Today's a new day!Comment -
yeah hate to say this, but good to lose once in a while. youll get a longer rope/leash
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Yeah we were probably a little over confident and needed a reality check but I am confident moving forward and look forward to the rest of the week!
Starting the new thread maybe gave us bad karma for the day (ghost of Cheme)
Looking at today I am going to make final decisions for College in about 10 minutes, but looking at Memphis likely and possibly N. Arizona - unlikely - Could change in 10 minutes though.
Don't press today we will make it back but no reason to change what is working or play over your head and/or bankroll.Comment -
I would love even to be able to lose money today but my online book is all ****** up and I cant even access betting lines. They keep telling me its my problem but ive cleared my cache, cookies, tried 2 browsers. I sent them a screenshot but they haven't replied. FAUK!Comment -
think today might be a slow one guys, college action seems stale right now and a very light card in the NBAComment -
Yah, I'm not liking much right now.Comment -
2 plays for me
Arkansas Little Rock +10 for 4u
Youngstown State +19 for 2u
Bets placed not looking back except for the possiblilty of the 2 newly games which my book does not have yet
Northern Arizona looks intriguing but no play for me, Memphis was an early lean but then things went the other way.
Arkansas just saw recent action which I think is a good sign
Youngstown State has been swinging back and forth all hour so that game is hard to tell which is the "right" side.
Good luck all, will be back around 5:30 - 6 EST with NBA picks if any.
my very early guesses would be NJN and ATL have the best chance of being plays.Comment -
Guys here is my take on College (posting this after watching Arkansas slide back to non-play shortly after my large bet)
I believe college fluctuates with much less consistancy especially on a random day with a few games likely due to limited action.
I think a game can sit dormant and then a capper like RAS or even less known ones puts out a play and then action jumps back and forth on that game. Some follow, some fade but all of a sudden a dead game has life and we can read either side of the game depending on what second or minute we follow.
Maybe on a Saturday and Sunday are plays are giving us better value but on these weekdays college bounces back and forth a little too much for me to have much confidence in any of them.
NBA is more consistant as it takes much more big money action to move a line.Comment -
I've been doing pretty good in CBB by running the numbers earlier in the day (yesterday being the exception). We just have to remember not to over-analyze things, or figure out how we could've turned a losing day into a winning day, because we do have losing days.Comment -
CBB
Arkansas LR +10 2.9u
Weber State +11.5 2.1uComment -
Yup I think we all lost some money...basically guys I think that whatever time you decide to do your plays, then just keep consistent with it...impper does BOTH CBB and NBA plays at 11....chili does CBB at 11 and NBA at 5...I have tried both as well as doing NBA and CBB at 3....and we all have had our ups and downs....
so basically what I am saying is....STICK TO ONE TIME OR SCHEDULE each day that fits for you, and ONLY do Pinny leans of -108+ period...I am actually thinking about even staying away from games where my book is off because my book probably wants me to take that line for some reason...I believe Chili DOES NOT take any games where his lines differ from Pinny...
CONCLUSION: Stick to one time per day or whatever your schedule is....make sure there is a Pinny lean...make sure you are getting a .75%+ edge......that's it!Comment -
Please correct me if I am wrong on anything guys....and Chili, I do think you only play lines that match up with Pinny correct? You stay away from different lines..Comment
