POM plays vs. opening number only

dogman · 12-07-10, 03:20 PM

Sorry guys, Just remembered I won't be around at the time the openers come out for the next few weeks so I'll have to cancel this thread

dogman · 12-07-10, 03:25 PM

Just wanted to say I will try to keep a record of this(POM plays vs. the openers) and try to update it everyday if I can.I just wont be able to post the plays when the openers comes out.

spongerat · 12-07-10, 04:52 PM

ok cool idea, hows his rankings done lately producing plays?

jscol · 12-07-10, 05:01 PM

East Carolina and Long Beach st tonight. Purdue fits but reverse trend against them - I'm staying away.

Hotlanta Steam · 12-07-10, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by dogman

Just wanted to say I will try to keep a record of this(POM plays vs. the openers) and try to update it everyday if I can.I just wont be able to post the plays when the openers comes out.

Dogman, I can help if you need someone until you come back, I love EagelsPhans thread and would be happy to help post the days plays until you return.

Hotlanta Steam · 12-07-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by spongerat

ok cool idea, hows his rankings done lately producing plays?

Pomeroy "system" for lack of a better word, has been excellent!!

dogman · 12-07-10, 05:29 PM

Steam, thank you. I may still be able to post the games but you or anyone can help if you want to. Sports Options lists the openers from Bookmaker so if I cant put the picks up right away I will just go there to find the opener. You can post here anytime with the plays , it would be a big help. I am just curious how the POM plays fare only against the opening number.

Line move fast sometimes when the line comes out but basically just want to see what the record will be by seasons end.

Hotlanta Steam · 12-07-10, 06:01 PM

I gotcha Dogman, I will post em as soon as I see the openers until you get back to where you can do it with no hassle.

dogman · 12-07-10, 06:50 PM

I am going to use Bookmakers openers even though some lines may move soo fast that the opener is not bettable but I will count it anyway. Remember we are only using the OPENING NUMBER from BOOKMAKER.

Wed plays - Arizona -27 1/2 (35)
Vandy +4 1/2 (2)
Maryland -30 1/2 (34)
Sou Ill. -15 (19) *******line moved fast to -18 so not bettable but will count it as an official play.

I am not going to count Drake +1 1/2 ( -1) as an official play as it crosses the zero but you can if you want. I don't know if its a true 2 1/2 pt advantage if it crosses the zero because the game can't end up in a tie. What do you guy's think?

dogman · 12-08-10, 07:10 AM

Tuesday result- 0-1*******overall record 11-7 (61.1%)

dogman · 12-08-10, 05:50 PM

Thursday play-Florida -13 1/2 (-16)

dogman · 12-09-10, 09:28 AM

Wed. result- 2-1-1 *****overall rcord 12-8 (60%)

Drake was a winner but not counting and So. Ill. was a push with the opening number as they won by 15.

dogman · 12-09-10, 09:33 AM

Overall record is 13-8 (61.9%) after Wed. results

dogman · 12-09-10, 10:15 AM

From now on I am just going to list the games that have a pont differential of between 2.5 and 5.0. That's taking Bookmakers opening line and the POM prediction.

As EaglesPhan mentioned in his thread the higher point diff. don't seem to do that well and I think he is right. If the difference is very high, more than 5 points, then somebody's got it wrong and chances are it's not Bookmaker or Pinny. So from now on let's lay off the ones with a point diff. of 5 or more. I will try to list them in this thread but will not count them as an official play.

So just for the record all games with more than a 5 pt. diff. the record is 0-1. Let's count the Ariz. game as an official play but from now on we won't but I'll try to keep a running record.

utmoody10 · 12-09-10, 10:29 AM

What do you think causes the large point disparity to be so wrong? My theory is that since the system doesnt way certain emotional factors such as motivation, days rest and various injuries. These could possibly be the dreaded "trap games" that so many people mention to where the books put out a number that looks too good to be true so a lot of the public jumps all over it. Any other thoughts?

rpdiddy · 12-09-10, 10:45 AM

The reasons will vary per game (injury, trap, Rivalry, etc.) I'm starting to wonder if anything over 5.5 points is "fade" worthy. Respecting the system enough so that to say there must be a "reason" for the disparity, take the other side.

dogman · 12-09-10, 11:21 AM

The Pom prediction is usually no more than 5 points from the opening numbers, so when there is a game where there is a big difference it is probably a good time to lay off . In all of Sat. games and up to today I think this was(Arizona) the only game with more than a 5 point difference. When one game is off by that many points my gut says pass the game. If his predictions were always far off then the openers then that would be a different story but almost all of them are within 5 pts.

I am not sure of the reason because as I metioned in Phans thread you would think the bigger point difference the stronger the play but not so. Last year for a few week(very short run) I did try to play the games with the biggest point differential and didn't do that well, that's why EaglesPhan thread caught my eye.

dogman · 12-09-10, 05:42 PM

Fri. plays-829 Santa Clara +4 (+1)
831 Fairfield +8 1/2 (+6)

Lines moved very fast so those lines were tough to get. You really don't want to take a worse line than the opener even though it may still have a 2.5+ pt diff. You still could play it and just hope it doesn't make a difference. I would say it could still be a play if your line is within 1/2 pt of the opener and no more.

dogman · 12-10-10, 08:31 AM

Thursday result 0-1****overall 13-9 (+3.1 units)

dogman · 12-10-10, 07:03 PM

Sat plays-524 Neb-6 1/2
525 Wisc gb +4 1/2
538 Pitt -7 1/2
540 Loyola chic +9 1/2
548 Miami Oh -10
556 Kansas -22
562 Richmond -6 1/2
578 LSU -12 1/2
586 San Diego St -26
587 Pepperdine +3
599 Charlotte +9

These are the picks based on Bookmakers opening numbers only. Five of these games already moved off the opener to make them a no play(only a 2 pt. edge). I wasn't around when the openers came out so I didn't actually play any of these, maybe will pick out a few tommorrow.

Remember this is only a test to see how the POM line does against only the opening numbers posted at Bookmaker. So far his lines are beating the openers(only 21 games in the records just 7 days) but it is only the short run and things can change in a hurry with more games being played. We will have to wait and see.

dogman · 12-11-10, 05:55 AM

Friday result 2-0*****Overall record 15-9 (+5.1 units)

dogman · 12-12-10, 10:39 AM

Sat result 4-7*****overall record 19-16 (+1.4 units)

Sundays plays-813-penn st +8 1/2
821- Flo Int +4 1/2
840 Ohio st (-28)
These lines are from Bookmakers openers- I wasn't around to post them yesterday-This will be my last post, just haven't got the time to keep the thread up to date. If somebody wants to keep testing the idea, it is just taking Bookmakers Opening Numbers and playing the games with a point diff of 2.5 to 5.0 beteen BM lines and the POM prediction.

The Stanford game had a 6.5 diff and thrown out.