Cheme82's CBB plays for November

[Iron City]

Good job Chlii
Thanks again for your help
I tried the calc and ended up 3-3.
I will keep on trying

[impper]

Wow, I just looked at the closing moneylines for the 4 CBB plays I had tonight:

Florida Intl +439
Hofstra +476
NC Wilmington +439
St. Peter's +704

NC Wilmington and Hofstra won straight up.

Yep... Crazy stuff there haha

[chilidog]

Looks like we got close to 30 nba/cbb games on the board for tonight - i hope we pull off a 20+ unit night!

[jolmscheid]

Dang I broke even last night Chili! Had a decent night in CBB going 4-1 but the Bucks in NBA screwed me over...I know you were on Utah, so I don't know what happened there that I got the Bucks

[chilidog]

Breaking even is better than losing though.

It's all variance. I've tracked cheme for about 2,000 games (it's a few hundred more now), and the numbers simply don't lie. It's not like we're on a 100 game sample or anything. You really need a 1,000 game sample before you can say that something is good to go. Well, we've doubled that, and it's still kicking ass. We will have losing days. We will have many many more winning days. I know that losing days suck ass, and it's easy to get discouraged.

You do have to remember one thing though, about this 2,000 game sample from cheme. These picks were all made as close to game time as possible. Sometimes cheme posted his plays 15 minutes before gametime. I know that impper is doing it differently, by capping the games earlier in the day, but he's paying attention to the lines themselves.

I've gotten so fast at doing the math, I can nail out the entire card in about 5-10 minutes (depending on the number of games) for the entire night, for all the games starting at 6:30pm CST and later. It doesn't really take too much time.

The part that does take time, though, is when you're doing this with multiple books. I have 2 locals, betus, and sportsbook.com accounts. The plays that I post are from the first local's account that I have. I don't just make the plays with that one local, and bet the same pick on each sportsbook account. So I have to run the numbers individually for each book, because I might get different plays, with different edges, etc. I'm only posting the stats and picks from the 1st local, though. It'd be too confusing for everybody if I posted 4 sets of plays, heh.

Overall, this is completely kicking ass, so just hang in there.

I still don't know yet if I'm going to post my plays anymore or not. I guess it'll depend on how much time that I have. When there's day games going on, sure, I have plenty of time. But when a lot of games are starting around 6-8pm, I'm in number crunching mode.

[impper]

chili i ahve been tracking the plays i would make at 6 pm vs the plays i make at 12 pm and its looking like the cheme method is working better. so far for 4 days ive been tracking it, 12 pm plays have done better on one day, 6 pm plays better on 3 days. i will continue to do so

[impper]

i'm still figuring if the moneyline plays are worth it. if you could track them as well i'd appreciate it

[chilidog]

I agree with that. My problem was trying to figure out when to pull the trigger and do the math, because lines and spreads change all the time. I'm pretty sure that I've got it figured out now.

[chilidog]

i'm still figuring if the moneyline plays are worth it. if you could track them as well i'd appreciate it

So much tracking to do! Gosh, I love numbers. My wife doesn't share the same passion as I do, lol. I could go on and on about any math-related problem, fully excited about it, and it baffles me why others don't have the same excitement. I'm in my own little world, I guess.

[jolmscheid]

I started tracking them impper...last night I had Virginia which was a +800 dog.........Well it sounds like I am going to have to wait until as late as possible to get the most secure lines...

Chili, do you still stay away from the -105 or -106 lines at Pinny?? Or do you play them all? Thanks bro

[chilidog]

I do them all, because of when I run the numbers. The lines have pretty much settled by then.

[impper]

I do them all, because of when I run the numbers. The lines have pretty much settled by then.

yes, this. late in the day there is no problem whatsoever with calculating the -105 lines. there are even certain numbers where -104 can get you an edge, as long as you're fairly confident the line won't move

[impper]

I started tracking them impper...last night I had Virginia which was a +800 dog.........

i was on hofstra as well, which won the game outright as a big dog iirc

[jolmscheid]

Thanks impper and Chili...I will just have to stick to doing them as late in the day as possible...so if I can do it an hour before gametime, then I will use all lines, but if it is earlier in the day, then I plan on using only the Pinny leans of -108+ to help with line security...

Also, I get -105 lines on NBA, NFL, and CFB on Friday nights...do you guys think it would be good to do my calc. late Friday nights for the CFB and NFL plays for the weekend? I mean, I would then be able to get the lines at -165.....what do you guys think?

[impper]

So much tracking to do! Gosh, I love numbers. My wife doesn't share the same passion as I do, lol. I could go on and on about any math-related problem, fully excited about it, and it baffles me why others don't have the same excitement. I'm in my own little world, I guess.

I feel you there. Everybody else is just ABSOLUTELY uninterested in any of this... Most people just come out and ask, "So how much have you lost so far?"

[chilidog]

Also, I get -105 lines on NBA, NFL, and CFB on Friday nights...do you guys think it would be good to do my calc. late Friday nights for the CFB and NFL plays for the weekend? I mean, I would then be able to get the lines at -165.....what do you guys think?

I wouldn't. That's way too early. You have to get as close to gametime as possible.

I feel you there. Everybody else is just ABSOLUTELY uninterested in any of this... Most people just come out and ask, "So how much have you lost so far?"

I don't even go into the win/loss dollar amount with my wife, and I have no interest in telling my friends about it. She humors me when I talk about it, and at the end of the day, she'll ask how I did, and I just play it off, either way. Losing = "It just about broken even". Winning is = "I did alright". If I do an awesome day, then yah, I'll tell her that I won 20 units today, but it still doesn't really register.

It's kind of funny to me, though. She knows I do it and she's fully supportive of my 'hobby' (as long as it doesn't cut into her time that I spend with her). I take her out about once a week for a day or night on the town, shopping etc., paid for with gambling winnings, but it still hasn't made that click for her. Oh well, sometimes ignorance is bliss. Like I said, I'm just in my own little world. I don't expect other people to get giddy over numbers and formulas.

[dikgarland]

but where is Cheme82? just to know...

[impper]

he said that he's taking a break

[jolmscheid]

Well I locked in my plays at 4:30 and here is what I got Chili and impper:

Wake Forest +5

Tennessee -13

FAU +13.5

Fresno State +14

North Carolina +9.5

Portland U -1.5

SD State -3.5

Let me know if any of yours looks the same...thanks guys (BTW, I only did plays where my book had lines that were .5+ points off of Pinny's or if Pinny was leaning towards one side by -108 or greater...I hope this gives me some more line security for placing the wagers a little earlier than Chili does....)

[chilidog]

Good luck on your plays, jolm! I still have another 30 minutes before I start doing mine.

[mrkron]

Here is what I got

Northwestern -3
Iowa -2
Syracuse -14
Fla Atlantic +13
LSU -5.5
North Carolina +9.5
Bradley +6
Nevada +10

Still need to do the 10:00 games later

[chilidog]

I have northwestern, wake forest and bradley for the games starting in about 15 minutes. I'll do the remainder of the games in a bit.

[chilidog]

Was a losing day for me; I went 5-6 in CBB, losing -4.4 units. How'd ya'll do?

[r8rrich12]

Hit on a 4 team parlay (OSU/Georgetown/NM St/Michigan) ... I didn't even have to use my A.K. , I gotta say it was a good day

[fennigan]

I might have lucked out because this was the first time trying since getting back from vacation. I just bet a unit per and went 5-1 with two ongoing but looking good(crosses fingers)

I bet on the following:

Portland -3
Georgetown +3
Montana -11(my loss)
Washington -15.5(ongoing but looking alright)
Northwestern -3
Wake Forrest +5
Bradley +6.5

And Spurs -2.5 using the calculator for NBA(ongoing but looking good)

I was nervous because I'm still getting used to the calculator and betting right before the games so I know I missed some. Started getting quicker as the night went on. My slow start might have saved me.

I am going to try and bet based on the percentage tomorrow and not anything below 1% edge.

What were your six losses out of curiousity.

[impper]

i feel like i'm getting killed! i didn't do well in CBB at all, nor did i do well in the nba, despite picking my games before gametime. i went 7-8-1 for a loss of 6 units. it's so odd to have 9 out of 10 winning days in a row, with some very convincing winning days, and then to either break even or lose overall for 4 days in a row. my BR is still healthy, but probably can't sustain a long string of losing days. here's hoping things turn around

[chilidog]

i feel like i'm getting killed! i didn't do well in CBB at all, nor did i do well in the nba, despite picking my games before gametime. i went 7-8-1 for a loss of 6 units. it's so odd to have 9 out of 10 winning days in a row, with some very convincing winning days, and then to either break even or lose overall for 4 days in a row. my BR is still healthy, but probably can't sustain a long string of losing days. here's hoping things turn around

Exactly! When I look back and see a 20-8 day, a 22-8 day, another 21-9 day, and multiple +20 unit days, I know that we're doing it right, and I know that it's variance, but losing days hurt because of the added juice. I took a big hit last night because of NBA. I only lost like 4-5 units on CBB, so that's okay, but I lost 12 units in NBA. Ouch! Over the past 7 days, I'm up +36.1 units, but still, ugh! It's easy to get discouraged when the ball falls on the other side. The past 7 days win/loss pattern has been W-L-W-W-L-W-L.

With CBB, I did really good in the first set of games, and really good in the final games of the night. It was all those games in the middle that gave me 6 losses.

[fennigan]

Does anyone know the forumlas the calculator uses or if someone has made a spreadsheet where you can keep track and just plug in the number into. I just hate having to rely on a website.

[chilidog]

You made a post awhile back, impper, about what you do if your book's line is 1/2 point off from pinny, saying that they were just anticipating the line move. Do you just ignore this 1/2 point and input the data at the bottom of the calc as if your book has the same spread as pinny?

[chilidog]

Does anyone know the forumlas the calculator uses or if someone has made a spreadsheet where you can keep track and just plug in the number into. I just hate having to rely on a website.

I don't. Somebody said that it was last updated in 2008, and part of the formula takes into consideration how often a team wins/loses when the spread is x with a line of x, against a team when the spread is x and the line is x. I imagine it's pretty complex.

[chilidog]

I might have lucked out because this was the first time trying since getting back from vacation. I just bet a unit per and went 5-1 with two ongoing but looking good(crosses fingers)

I bet on the following:

Portland -3
Georgetown +3
Montana -11(my loss)
Washington -15.5(ongoing but looking alright)
Northwestern -3
Wake Forrest +5
Bradley +6.5

And Spurs -2.5 using the calculator for NBA(ongoing but looking good)

I was nervous because I'm still getting used to the calculator and betting right before the games so I know I missed some. Started getting quicker as the night went on. My slow start might have saved me.

I am going to try and bet based on the percentage tomorrow and not anything below 1% edge.

What were your six losses out of curiousity.

Do you have a local where you're getting 3 points for -165, or which online book are you using to get the 3 for -170?

[impper]

You made a post awhile back, impper, about what you do if your book's line is 1/2 point off from pinny, saying that they were just anticipating the line move. Do you just ignore this 1/2 point and input the data at the bottom of the calc as if your book has the same spread as pinny?

when this is the case I ignore that game unless pinnacle moves their line that way. for example, if a game is +7 1.909 and -7 2.00 on pinny, and my book has it at +6.5 -6.5, then there's no good play to be made. There might be an exception if -6.5 is a particularly good number for the favorite, but if we're making a bet like that we're also betting on the wrong side of line movement and that's supposed to be a losing bet in the long run

[chilidog]

when this is the case I ignore that game unless pinnacle moves their line that way. for example, if a game is +7 1.909 and -7 2.00 on pinny, and my book has it at +6.5 -6.5, then there's no good play to be made. There might be an exception if -6.5 is a particularly good number for the favorite, but if we're making a bet like that we're also betting on the wrong side of line movement and that's supposed to be a losing bet in the long run

Well, more often than not, at least with my locals, I'm on the other side. Say pinny has it at +7/-7, my local will have it at +7.5/-7.5, and those games are the ones that I'm losing the most on. So I was wondering if should just input the data as +7 at the bottom of the calc, instead of centering the data at 7.5, or doing like you said, and just ignoring those games.

[impper]

yes, in that case I'd put the calculator centered at +7/-7. I always put pinny's number into the calculator and NOT my book's.

Now that I think about it, betting based on getting a better line at my book has been where most of my recent losers have been as well. Last night, the Kings and the Warriors were both at +4 at pinny, but my book had them at +5 and +5.5 respectively. I lost on both by a large margin, and had I been capping the games myself I would have bet against the Kings and Warriors.

Still, it SHOULD NOT MATTER, as getting 1 or 1.5 points better than pinnacle's line should be a winning bet in the long run regardless of which way we bet...

[chilidog]

I always put pinny's line at the top of the calculator, but at the bottom part, I would center the spread at whatever my local had, and go from there.