early in the day i can only use pinny. pregame i doublecheck both... although pinny has served me well on its own. youre right that matchbook lines are goofy around noon, especially for college hoops.
-
Comment -
Ahhh, so you're making bets earlier in the day, as well as before gametime? I was thinking of just running the calc around noon, making my bets, and seeing how they turn out.Comment -
if i'm around near gametime i just run the numbers for fun, and if anything presents itself i make the bet. this will be my 7th profitable day in a row using this system. i don't know how common that is but it's amazing for meComment -
Yah, the system is awesome
It's looking you're going to do about double what I did today - I did about +10 units, so just trying to maximize my profit and seeing if you're doing anything differently. NBA has been consistently profitable for me, but CBB has been up and down for me, so I want to get that taken care of.
Comment -
so noon is the time to do the calc? i shld probably start trying that tomorrow, and see how it turns out to be?
hw many games did u play tho impper today, and if u run them all at once, do u place all the bets at that same time(noon)?Comment -
right now all of my plays are in the range of 2-4 units, hovering around 2.5-3.5, so i'm going a little steadier and not losing on any 5 unit plays or anything like that. I went 20-5. here's a screen of my plays for today that shows when i made the wagers . . . i blanked the wager sizes because i made this screen for another forum i post on so excuse that
Comment -
oh there are also a few double plays and crap like that in there, so not exactly 20-5 lol. i just make another bet on the same game when the advantage or edge moves further in my favorComment -
it also sucks that i chose one of the few wrong games to put that moneyline bet on.Comment -
So, when the calculator spits out the edge percentage that a given play has, how are you structuring your units sizes? The 5 units plays, where my edge is 5%, are killing me when they lose.Comment -
You use betus as well So I'm guessing that you use sbrodds and have pinny and betus next to each other, to easily compare the lines?
Comment -
hey i have looked back a few and can't find what you are exactly talking about with this system .. just am curious?Yah, the system is awesome It's looking you're going to do about double what I did today - I did about +10 units, so just trying to maximize my profit and seeing if you're doing anything differently. NBA has been consistently profitable for me, but CBB has been up and down for me, so I want to get that taken care of. Comment -
i use a semi logarithmic scale to limit my losses on the big unit plays since even one loss there at a bet size 5x the size of our smaller ones can offset like 6-7 smaller wins. it's also limiting my winnings at the moment and i plan to uncap it once my bankroll gets big enough, if it ever does. i think though that at most a large edge should be pushed maybe only 2.5-3x more than a smaller edge, unless you can tolerate big swings. i'm pretty risk averse and i pout when i lose so i might be limiting my bet size just to protect my psyche.
i also tried out sbrodds but i like to do it the old fashioned way, cycling from tab to tab, refreshing and getting the freshest line. many times i beat the betus line movement by a few seconds, and a lot of times i place the bet it already moves a half point and it invalidates my bet, so i figure every second is helpful. i place the bet as soon as i determine my edgeComment -
in relation to that, i think i'm also going to start keeping a spreadsheet to track my edge %, the winning percentage and profits of the separate edge percents, whether dogs or favs do better, the winning rate over time of betting both sides...
im also working on a quick reference guide for every line. the half point calculator won't be necessary if we know exactly which numbers favor dogs, which numbers favor favorites, and the necessary juice advantage at every step. calculator is still necessary but i've noticed that i'm already getting much better at eyeballing the pinny line and telling whether the calculator will give me an edge or not.Comment -
BOL with your plays todayComment -
I'm not familiar with a logarithmic scale, so I'll have to do some reading up on that. Are you betting 'to risk' or 'to win' on these? The only thing I'm trying to focus on now is to minimize my losses, and it seems to be the 3-5% edges that are losing more than the 0.5%-2% edges.
Those would be awesome, especially with CBB, when it can definitely take some time to input all of the data, because the sheer number of games going on.Comment -
Also, I guess that you're plugging the -170 that you get from your book into the calculator? Since I get -165 from my local, I end up with several 3-5% edge plays (which seem to lose more than they win), and when I tried it about an hour ago plugging in -170, I get very few of them, but also way less plays. I know that it was too early to be doing it to get the actual plays for the day, though.Comment -
but where are Cheme82 picks? sorryComment -
chili, will you be posting in nba forums for your picks today in place of cheme?Comment -
I just ran all the numbers on both CBB/NBA, using betus -170 lines, and the plays that I've come up with are:
NBA
Philadelphia +8.5 -170 1.05%
San Antonio -4.5 -170 1.76%
Dallas +7.5 -170 0.47%
Golden State +8.5 -170 1.05%
New Orleans +7 -170 2.71%
CBB
Wofford -10 -170 1.70%
Youngstown St -10 -170 0.96%
Utah State -6.5 -170 3.27%
USC -11 -170 3.30%
Southern Utah +10.5 -170 3.87%
Ball State +13.5 -170 0.79%
You have anything similar, impper?Comment -
However, running all of the CBB/NBA games using my local with -165 lines, I came up with this (and it's a ton more plays):
NBA
Philadelphia +9 -165 3.41%
New Jersey -8.5 -165 0.84%
Miami +8 -165 3.46%
Detroit +9.5 -165 1.29%
Minnesota +10.5 -165 1.39%
Dallas +7.5 -165 0.96%
Golden State +8.5 -165 2.19%
CBB
Air Force +16.5 -165 2.00%
Cleveland State +5.5 -165 0.41%
Drexel +11.5 -165 0.19%
Tennessee -1 -145 2.16%
Youngstown State -10 -165 2.10%
Central Michigan +8.5 -165 0.75%
Middle Tenn State -1.5 -165 0.55%
Arkansas -19 -165 1.61%
Bradley -9.5 -165 1.11%
UCLA +8.5 -165 0.96%
Utah +12 -165 3.78%
E. Washington +18 -165 0.27%
Montana State -2.5 -165 0.07%
Loyola Marymount -0.5 -165 1.16%
Oregon State -2.5 -165 0.31%
USC -11.5 -165 0.01%
Southern Utah +10 -165 2.50%
Ball State +13.5 -165 1.92%
So, which of the two (the -170 or the -165 plays) are most in line with your plays, impper? I have no issues with killing it with NBA, that's been pretty much profitable for me almost daily - it's the college basketball that is giving me up and down days, and you're doing 2-3x better than what I'm doing with it.Comment -
The half point calculator.
Comment -
chili are you playing games with <1% edge? i see some games you listed where that is the case. your edge could change +1% or more i gotta believe on the timing of your bets, easily. but like what said earlier about losing games where you have say 4% edge vs games that are say 1% edge where they won at a higher rate. this was why i asked cheme earlier about flat betting the plays as long as you had >1% edge. note sure how that would work out vs using a bankroll % method based on the calc edge.Comment -
Yes, I do, but I've been rounding those up to 1%. My problem lately has been the 3-5% games are losing much more than they are winning, and the games that have a 2% and under edge are winning a lot more. So, even if I win more games than I lose, if I lose a few 3-5% games, that can wipe out my entire day's profit.Comment -
chili, you plan to play all those games you posted?Comment -
No, I did those just to see if numbers were similar to impper's. I'll run the numbers and make my bets in a little bit. Several of the plays that I posted above are no longer plays, because the lines/spreads have moved eliminating the edge. That's why you can't really go on other people's plays. You have to input pinny's lines, and your books' lines into the half point calculator, and if you have an edge, then you need to bet it right then and there. If the line changes, then you have to do the calculation again. I can put up a bet, and the line can change, and it may no longer have an edge on it.Comment -
my book lets me buy up to 2pts in basketball, but for -150 (not bad) do you recommend i play the picks with 2pt buy or straight pointspreads? IYO.Comment -
I would input that data into the calculator to see if you have edge at -150 for 2 points.Comment -
it's just variance chili. in the long run those 3-5% plays will bring you more profit, it's just that they may not be so much more profitable as to justify betting three or five times more on a single play. a game with a 5% edge will win ~61-65% of the time and lose ~30-33% of the time, whereas a game with a 1% edge will win ~61% of the time and lose ~33% of the time. So you still have the same chance to lose, it's just that you win more slightly more often. Betting flat at -170, you need to hit 66% of the time to eke out a small profit. If you're betting 5 times more on a single game and miss, then you need to hit 10 small 1% plays just to break even. I'd rather minimize that number even if it's not _absolutely_ mathematically efficient
i'm running my plays for ncaa right now, so give me a few minutes. I'm also busy here at work so it could take quite a bitComment -
If buying points gives me an edge, then I will. I don't always buy 3 points. I sometimes don't even buy points at all. I input the numbers into the calculator, and whichever number gives me the greatest edge, that's what I go with.Comment -
Yah I know that in the long run they should come out ahead, but as you said, if I have 3 plays that are 3-5%, and they lose, then I have to win ~10 of the 0.5%-2% edge games just to break even, and that can easily ruin a day's profit. I'm thinking of re-structuring the units I bet, and putting 2 units on a play that has a 2% edge or under, 3 units on a 3% play, and 4 on a 4%+ play.Comment -
Good points made her Best, Chili, and impper...and Chili I have been running into the same problem as you in that I have been losing my bigger bets...I am thinking of just playing ALL plays for a flat amount of 1 or 2 units each....what do you guys think?Comment -
alright, here's what I got for CBB:
UCLA +8 -170 for Game
Washington PK -110 for Game
Utah +12 -170 for Game
Cleveland State +5½ -170 for GameComment
