Memphis free throw percentage

WestsidePete · 02-08-08, 03:01 AM

It will cost them in the tournament...once they make the final 16 and the rest of the way...

onlooker · 02-08-08, 03:06 AM

It will comeback and bite them in the ass sooner then later I feel. Houston can give them trouble, and I think Tennessee will beat them.

Memphis, if a #1 seed, will be the first one to fall.

WestsidePete · 02-08-08, 03:09 AM

Here is a write up about their ft shooting...a little long but an interesting read...

Can Memphis win the National Championship? A simple question that has floated around the office this year and one that gets bandied about on talk shows and countless forums seemingly every time they win a game. I responded in a Sports Memo forum post with my contention that Memphis would not win a championship in it’s current incarnation over a month ago;

“I have my questions about Memphis. For as much edge as they have athletically over 99% of the teams in the country (talking five players vs. five players) they never seem to dominate a game against top class opposition. Why is that? Because as Brent semi-points out, they can't shoot. Now, if they get hot, watch out. But I think USC and Tim Floyd have shown us that a solid approach defensively, where you take away some of what they want to do in the paint, can really throw this team off. It’s why I don't think they will win a title under Calipari in this current form: Asking them to win three straight against top class teams with good coaching and good guard play seems out of their realm of possibilities (assuming an automatic berth to the sweet 16 after a No. 1 seed). I've seen them go cold far too many times.”

USC took Memphis to overtime on a neutral site despite having to travel after playing in a brutal game with Kansas less than 48 hours prior. Now, Memphis did win the game as well as neutral site tilts against UConn and Oklahoma, a road game at Cincinnati and home games against Georgetown, Arizona and Gonzaga. And kudos to the Tigers for those wins. But UConn hadn’t yet found their stride as a team, Oklahoma and Cincinnati were (are) marginal at best and the rest were on their home court. Obviously to win a National Championship this team will have to beat an elite team away from home, and likely they will need to beat at least three elite level teams away from home and the energy the home crowd exudes.

So do the stats say that they can do that? Can they go to a neutral site venue, or multiple neutral site venues, and win? I’m not so sure. Since the 1998 season there have been 10 Champions crowned, here they are in descending order; Florida (back-to-back) North Carolina, UConn, Syracuse, Maryland, Duke, Michigan State, UConn (again), and Kentucky. As their season long statistics stand right now Memphis would have the worst shooting percentage (46.6), worst 3-pt percentage (34.0) and by far the worst FT percentage (58.1) of all eleven teams when compared top to bottom. Now the FG percentages and 3-pt percentages can (and often times do) vary and Memphis at the low end of the list doesn’t stray too far from the median averages of these prior Champions (48.7 and 37.9 respectively). But when two top teams are pitted against one another in the late stages of the NCAA Tournament the game almost invariably comes down to converting from the free throw line and that is where Memphis struggles mightily.

The average team FT percentage for the past ten National Champs sits at 70.4. Of the ten teams only one shot less than 68 percent as a whole, the 2004 UConn Huskies who shot 62.3 percent. But as poor as some of those big men were at the line (Emeka Okafor and Charlie Villanueva) when the game was on the line that UConn team had one guy they could count on to close it out: Ben Gordon (83 percent). Memphis doesn’t have that guy. Their top two free throw shooters (in attempts and percentage) are Chris Douglas-Roberts (66 percent) and Derrick Rose (68 percent). While that type of shooting won’t always kill you, it doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence with the game on the line.

But Memphis advocates will say that their defense alone can negate their poor shooting, after all they do rank in the top five in the NCAA in defensive FG percentage allowed (37.3). But look closer at their box scores and you can see that legitimate tournament teams from power conferences, or better yet, teams not from the relatively weak C-USA (who are all simply outclassed by Memphis), have considerably outpaced the Tiger’s seasonal numbers. Calipari’s crew has held C-USA foes to just 33 percent shooting from the floor this season, truly remarkable if taken at face value. But against Gonzaga they allowed 47 percent, against Arizona they allowed 46 percent, Georgetown shot 48 percent from the floor, Cincinnati 43 percent. Oklahoma shot 38 percent, UConn shot 40 percent and USC took their game to overtime despite shooting just 29 percent in a game that most closely resembled a tournament atmosphere. It should be noted that Memphis converted just 39 percent of their free throws in that game, 22 percent of their three point attempts and 37 percent of their total field goals.

But these numbers are not exclusive to the 2007-2008 Memphis Tigers, no these same numbers have been mirrored in each of the two previous seasons as well. In the 2005-06 season Memphis finished with a 33-4 overall record after being dispatched in the Elite 8 by UCLA. The Bruins were the first truly elite team to take on Memphis in that tournament and they walked away with a five point victory. Memphis held UCLA to just 35 percent shooting from the floor, but their own 31 percent effort (including just 12 percent from distance), coupled with a -11 margin in free throws made doomed them. Last year Memphis once again tasted defeat in the Elite 8 and finished 33-4 on the season. In the Sweet 16 against a very talented Texas A&M squad the Tigers defense nearly cost them the win as the Aggies shot 48 percent from the floor. Ironically, two made free throws with three seconds left gave Memphis the one-point-come-from-behind win! But the poor shooting and spotty defense cost them against Ohio State next time out as the Buckeyes shredded them for a 51 percent shooting night.

If everything aligns for this team they can make it to the latter stages of the NCAA Tournament, they can make it to the Elite 8, the Final Four and perhaps even the final game. But to expect it to happen consistently, to expect them make stops defensively, to shoot well from beyond the arc and convert their free throws against top notch competition seems far fetched. Memphis is a good team and at times is dominant and plays at an elite level. But truly special teams, teams that win Championships, bring it consistently after already being tested by other top level teams. Skating through Conference USA and playing your toughest non-conference foes at home doesn’t prepare you for a title run and ultimately we’ll see this team hang their heads after another crushing loss come March.

yisman · 03-26-09, 10:59 PM

it's killing them tonight.

yisman · 03-26-09, 11:04 PM

if anyone is curious, they were 59.2% last year when Illusion made this thread.

69.5% this season.