ML Parlay Discussion Thread for Wednesday Jan 16th. Please chime in

imgv94 · 01-16-08, 12:23 AM

UAB

So.Miss 3-22 on road last three seasons
UAB 30-5 @ Home last three seasons

Average power rating of opponents played: SOUTHERN MISS 62, UAB 68.8

UAB @ Home this season:
7-0

77.3pts for /53.1pts against
51.8 Off FG%
34.7 Def FG%

This will be one of my parlay entries for sure. Only concern I have is their without Sharpe but they are 3-1 without him..

WestsidePete · 01-16-08, 12:33 AM

img,

what do you feel about the celtics ml added with the college games tomorrow?? just like detroit for today, boston should be pissed and beat the blazers...even with a lead they won't let up...this is the only pro ml I was thinking about adding...

imgv94 · 01-16-08, 12:43 AM

Probably a good thing. Boston doesn't lose @ Home defintely something to consider.

Illinois State -420

Ill St has won eight in a row

37.1 DEF FG%
35.1 DEF FG% @ HOME

29-10 @ Home last 3 years

Wichita state is kinda weak this season.

ILL St looks like good IMO

WestsidePete · 01-16-08, 12:45 AM

I like Illinois St...have them on the possible list as well...

imgv94 · 01-16-08, 12:54 AM

I'm putting

ILL ST on the definite list.

Probably add Celtics too the more I think about it.

imgv94 · 01-16-08, 01:08 AM

How about Illinois guys?

They must be desperate to get a win and what better chance do they have then to beat a horrible Michigan club.

any thoughts?

BigOrangeTitans · 01-16-08, 01:15 AM

Illinois has lost 4 or 5 straight. Look for them to win here but may be close after big loss this weekend. Like Illinois, they are definitely wanting a win.

imgv94 · 01-16-08, 01:18 AM

Its been forever since Michigan beat Illinois in Champagn.

If Illini loses this one they should forfeit entire season.

BigOrangeTitans · 01-16-08, 01:36 AM

i would rename them the crying illini....michigan is bad, specially on the road

imgv94 · 01-16-08, 01:52 AM

CS-Northridge

Hate betting this lower level conference games but is there any reason to believe Riverside can win this?

Northridge has won 5 in a row
Riverside lost 5 in a row

Northridge 12-3
Riverside 3-11

Northridge always kicks Riversides ass last 4 games

North won by 20,7,18 and 14..

This looks like a solid ML entry

jeffries · 01-16-08, 01:54 AM

take the spread and youll get paid alot more

BigOrangeTitans · 01-16-08, 02:02 AM

what about ark moneline?
Arkansas really good at home 37-5
SC lost to tenn by 24 at home last game and hasnt looked good all year

jeffries · 01-16-08, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

what about ark moneline?
Arkansas really good at home 37-5
SC lost to tenn by 24 at home last game and hasnt looked good all year

Not a College Basketball expert here but I would never take this game.. Stats favor SV, Arkansas got homefield advantage..

BigOrangeTitans · 01-16-08, 02:21 AM

your crazy, SV stats do not favor them here, what stats are you checking? SBRlines can point you right here

jeffries · 01-16-08, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by BigOrangeTitans

your crazy, SV stats do not favor them here, what stats are you checking? SBRlines can point you right here

Well you could be right.. http://www.sbrforum.com/statfeed/sta...008&rotnum=754

SC isn't as good as Arkansas but after looking at the stats again, i take back what I said.. I would say both teams will match up evenly and Arkansas should win the game but won't cover the spread.. I see SC shooting 10 % better then Arkansas from 3 point range.. Other then that, don't know what else i overlooked... i guess ou were right.. this game should be a ML bet on Arkansas

astro61200 · 01-16-08, 02:42 AM

Originally posted by jeffries

Well you could be right.. http://www.sbrforum.com/statfeed/sta...008&rotnum=754

SC isn't as good as Arkansas but after looking at the stats again, i take back what I said.. I would say both teams will match up evenly and Arkansas should win the game but won't cover the spread.. I see SC shooting 10 % better then Arkansas from 3 point range.. Other then that, don't know what else i overlooked... i guess ou were right.. this game should be a ML bet on Arkansas

Arkansas is +6.8 in FG%f-FG%a, South Carolina is only +2.5
Arkie is +6 rebounding margin, Gamecocks -3
USC also boasts a -9 away margin, 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS
Arkansas is +18 at home, 9-0 SU, only 2-3 ATS tho

I think Arkansas probably covers, maybe winning by 14

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 03:44 AM

hey guys....

i just got my preliminary list of 17 games for tomorrow of ML in the right range.... I am gonna go over all the games and post my short list for tomorrow nite in an hour or two....

I agree though....

CS Northridge looks solid for this strategy

so do the celtics, but... i have been using them in these ML Parlays lately and flat performances to Washington back to back has left a bad feeling about them....
I was almost thinking of excluding them from these for a while until they build a two or three game winning streak again....

and i know we would lose a little value in their moneyline in doing so, but i been watching all their games on TV and there is just something inexplicably wrong with this team lately

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 03:46 AM

img, did u cash that ND/Mizz St/Baylor ticket we came up with last night?

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 05:45 AM

ok it was tough tonight to narrow down this list but anyway...

Duke
Xavier

looks good at -108

Celtics
Dayton
CS Northridge

also pretty solid at -101

any opinions?

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 05:48 AM

as for the teams mentioned above by others that look solid....

Arkansas
CS northridge
UAB

would be at about -112

jeffries · 01-16-08, 06:02 AM

Memphis will blow Rice out, but the question is by HOW MUCH??? Memphis is supposedly the # 1 team in the country?? Rice just sucks so I believe they should cover the 26 point spread..

Any opinions?

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 06:15 AM

you might not like my opinion but picking whether a farly superior team will win by 30 or 23 points is a true guessing game.... so many factors go into it that dont begin until mid second half....

when up by 22 points does memphis play their bench for the rest of the game? when there is 3 minutes left and memphis up by 26 points does rice go on a 7 to 2 run to finish the game simply because the outcome is alrerady decided and it doesn't matter? kinda risky jeffries especially to put a whole bankroll on, but gl on whatever you decide

besides this thread is for picks that are big favorites on the moneyline to put in high value parlays.... unfortunately Memphis moneyline is off the board otherwise I would be using them tonite in one of these parlays

jeffries · 01-16-08, 06:22 AM

Lol yeaa. Does memphis have the tendency to empty its bench? I know the starters will play midway through the 2nd half, but the last 6-7 minutes who knows... Whats Memphis strategy when blowing teams out?

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 06:25 AM

haven't seen them enough to know that much about them.... astro might have an idea or imgv.... just saw the polls and UNC is ranked #1 were they #1 last week or was memphis? I only ask this because its a factor.... if Memphis slipped from one to two this week, they may be looking to run it up against a very weak Rice team

onlooker · 01-16-08, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by stingyrivers

haven't seen them enough to know that much about them.... astro might have an idea or imgv.... just saw the polls and UNC is ranked #1 were they #1 last week or was memphis? I only ask this because its a factor.... if Memphis slipped from one to two this week, they may be looking to run it up against a very weak Rice team

Memphis has been #2 since week 4 (December 3rd). North Carolina has been #1 since the start of the season.

jeffries · 01-16-08, 06:32 AM

I guess I overlooked that. My bad

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 11:03 AM

thinking of these two right now that i will play tonight, but not sure i f i should play them both or load up on just the first one.....

Duke
UNC
CS northridge

at -104

and....

Xavier
Dayton
Celtics

at +130

any thoughts??

mmarino · 01-16-08, 11:18 AM

I like the Duke, UNC, CS Northridge, and will most likely play that.

GODFATHER · 01-16-08, 11:20 AM

Hey stingy,

I'm liking the way you approach college basketball. I also like both picks you have posted. Like you have shared making parleys just dosent work as good as this if the homework is done right.

stingyrivers · 01-16-08, 11:53 AM

thanks godfather....

as long as the big favs win the game str8 up, which they usually do, this approach works pretty good.... the thing i gotta work on is not spreading myself too thin on one night because it only takes one upset if you do to make you break even on the night

tevari · 01-16-08, 12:09 PM

am i the only one sweating the duke game just a little? it's the only thing that's preventing me from pulling the trigger

mmarino · 01-16-08, 12:15 PM

I think Duke is going to have trouble covering the spread, but I think they shouldn't have too much trouble winning the game outright.

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 01-16-08, 12:33 PM

GV,

My ML parlay today is what I just sent you:

Celtics
Illinois State
Arkansas
North Carolina

pays almost even money...

tevari · 01-16-08, 12:43 PM

played:

duke
unc
cs northridge
new orleans (nba)

1k for 1.1