1. #1
    Fred The Hammer
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    When In Doubt Find Smaller Schools and KenPom The F Out of Them

    The theory is simple and I obviously didn't invent it. Find smaller schools, among the 350+ teams, and pound an angle. Everybody and their cousin bets Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, etc, but its easier to beat the little schools even if you can't find them on TV somewhere

    My favorite Frankenstein monster I'm working on so far is Youngstown State. Happened to watch them at the sportsbook during the Colts/Raiders last Sunday. They were running-n-gunning with Notre Dame and lost like 88-81. Something like 20 points Over the total. I made a little on Over 155.5 or something live. They're all black by the way which I point out not to be racist, but that there is usually some value to the stereotype that they don't usually prefer 4 corners style slow ass basketball

    Anyway took them yesterday -5.5 over UC San Diego because they were like 125 spots higher on KenPom and they beat them easily. I stayed away from the Over because UCSD is bad offensively and #337 pace

    Actually I might've lost today when they got spanked by Navy as a 3.5 pt fav, but I was too busy today to pay attention to cbb.

    What drew my attention though is they got beat 80-67 by Navy today which went Over the 139.5 total. 80 points to Navy and their #328 pace. They went 20 points Over with Notre Dame and their #335 pace. Thats out of 363 listed teams.

    Youngstown is now 4-2 and #179 on KP. #82 on offense, #308 on defense, and #103 on tempo. They're 5-1 Over and they've played some of the slowest f teams in cbb! Wait til they get in with some average to quick tempo teams!

    I'm 2-0 with them and hope to go atleast 10-5 with them this year when the opponent and numbers are right.

    Trust me....the books are not losing sleep over paying people on Youngstown State Overs
    Last edited by Fred The Hammer; 11-20-22 at 10:03 PM.

  2. #2
    VeggieDog
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  3. #3
    johnnygooble
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    Great ana!ysis...thanks for sharjng

  4. #4
    teecee
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    I use Ken Pom too. Using Ken Pom numbers I hit the under on the UNC/James Madison game. I came up with 147.1 and I saw it as high as 164. Easy under (80-64; I played U 157.5). The sides have been shit with the smaller schools for me, but with the bigger schools, have been spot on (well, the few I've played, anyway). It's still early though.
    Had one tough break with Fresno State @ N. Texas. Had the over 114 (I came up with 138 using KP) and they had 111 with nearly 3:30 left and scored two points the rest of the game. This is the only total I've missed thus far, although, I've only played 6 of them, so we'll have to keep an eye on it.

    Some totals I have played for today:

    Austin Peay/Albany, Over 130 (I came up with 143.3)
    East Carolina/Indiana State, Under 148 (133.4)
    Texas Tech/Creighton, Under134 (124.5)
    Cincinnati/Arizona, Under 159 (144.8)
    Louisville/Arkansas Under 139.5 (130.4)
    Northern Arizona/Texas, Over 133.5 (141) a bit iffy, but playing it
    Wright State/Abilene Christian, Under 149 (142.8) another borderline play that I got at Under 150

    Edit: Mississippi State/Marquette, Under 140 (132.7) missed this one as I forgot to circle it on my sheet
    Last edited by teecee; 11-21-22 at 09:28 AM.

  5. #5
    teecee
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    Added:

    Nevada/Tulane, Under 147.5 (136.8)

  6. #6
    Luv2Play2
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    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    added:

    Nevada/tulane, under 147.5 (136.8)
    ty for sharing. Hope to see more if you find the time..

  7. #7
    Enkhbat
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    Thanks for the analysis guys, I heard about KenPom before but for some reason I read it as KenPorn lol

  8. #8
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luv2Play2 View Post
    ty for sharing. Hope to see more if you find the time..
    I wouldn't mind posting more plays if I find some. I actually made a tweak to try and increase the accuracy. Some of these numbers were quite far off the the total offered. Trying to go for quality over quantity. Glad you're interested. I did like Kansas/NC State Under 155 (Draft Kings), but it's now Under 153. I'm not driving to Indiana (50 minutes) for that. Unfortunately, Ohioans cannot legally place bets with this shop until after the new year and I haven't played offshore in a bit.

  9. #9
    teecee
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    As far as Fred's strategy is concerned, I've noticed a couple plays following this that are enticing. Charlotte -2.5 and St. Thomas -2.5 look nice, imo. Dayton/Wisconsin Over is one I'd watch, although it would have to move downward a couple points for me to pull the trigger. It currently sits at O/U 122.
    Last edited by teecee; 11-23-22 at 09:37 AM.

  10. #10
    teecee
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    I have what APPEARS to be a decent play on a total for today

    Iowa State/Villanova is now at o/u 126 at Draft Kings.

    OVER 126 is the play

    I came up with 3 different numbers here

    High: 141.4
    Mid: 136.6
    Low: 131.2

    These totals in the 120's (as far as I can tell) have coming in UNDER at a seemingly high rate, although I DO NOT track all games. I don't have that much time, unfortunately. Play at your own risk.

  11. #11
    Matthew8
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    good call teecee

  12. #12
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew8 View Post
    good call teecee
    We hit one every now and then. Tread lightly, sir.

  13. #13
    teecee
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    Gonzaga/Portland St. Under 162.5

    my numbers range from 153.6 to 154.9

  14. #14
    teecee
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    above numbers obviously not as strong as the Iowa State/Villanova play.

  15. #15
    teecee
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    Keep an eye on the Bellarmine/Loyola Marymount total. I'm seeing 134.5 right now and it's already come down a few points. I would play it Over at 132/132.5. Who knows, maybe it will come down even more. My numbers range from 135.7 at the low to 149.5 at the high.

  16. #16
    jackpot269
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred The Hammer View Post
    The theory is simple and I obviously didn't invent it. Find smaller schools, among the 350+ teams, and pound an angle. Everybody and their cousin bets Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, etc, but its easier to beat the little schools even if you can't find them on TV somewhere

    My favorite Frankenstein monster I'm working on so far is Youngstown State. Happened to watch them at the sportsbook during the Colts/Raiders last Sunday. They were running-n-gunning with Notre Dame and lost like 88-81. Something like 20 points Over the total. I made a little on Over 155.5 or something live. They're all black by the way which I point out not to be racist, but that there is usually some value to the stereotype that they don't usually prefer 4 corners style slow ass basketball

    Anyway took them yesterday -5.5 over UC San Diego because they were like 125 spots higher on KenPom and they beat them easily. I stayed away from the Over because UCSD is bad offensively and #337 pace

    Actually I might've lost today when they got spanked by Navy as a 3.5 pt fav, but I was too busy today to pay attention to cbb.

    What drew my attention though is they got beat 80-67 by Navy today which went Over the 139.5 total. 80 points to Navy and their #328 pace. They went 20 points Over with Notre Dame and their #335 pace. Thats out of 363 listed teams.

    Youngstown is now 4-2 and #179 on KP. #82 on offense, #308 on defense, and #103 on tempo. They're 5-1 Over and they've played some of the slowest f teams in cbb! Wait til they get in with some average to quick tempo teams!

    I'm 2-0 with them and hope to go atleast 10-5 with them this year when the opponent and numbers are right.

    Trust me....the books are not losing sleep over paying people on Youngstown State Overs
    Thanks Fred, good info

  17. #17
    Enkhbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    Keep an eye on the Bellarmine/Loyola Marymount total. I'm seeing 134.5 right now and it's already come down a few points. I would play it Over at 132/132.5. Who knows, maybe it will come down even more. My numbers range from 135.7 at the low to 149.5 at the high.
    How are you finding your range of values for the over/under? Any tips?

  18. #18
    teecee
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    I'm seeing Bryant/Syracuse o/u set at 162 (DraftKings, of course).

    Under 162 is my play, here.

    At a low, I have 141.1 and at a high I have 159.8.

    Do what you've gotta do.

  19. #19
    teecee
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    Anything lower than 160.5 would be a no go for me.

  20. #20
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enkhbat View Post
    How are you finding your range of values for the over/under? Any tips?
    Honestly, this process is so tedious, that I'd just sit back and let someone else do the work (that's my tip, lol).It's fun, but it sure is time consuming. I haven't crafted a method for making it easier, although, I will, in time.

  21. #21
    teecee
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    Iona/Santa Clara, Under 147.5
    The range is 132.4 to 143.3

  22. #22
    teecee
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    UC Davis/Milwaukee, Under 148
    Range is tight here. 138.1-138.5. These teams are at #51 and #60 for adjusted tempo, so don't be surprised if we're biting our nails at the end
    Last edited by teecee; 11-26-22 at 01:51 PM. Reason: Added # symbol

  23. #23
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enkhbat View Post
    How are you finding your range of values for the over/under? Any tips?
    Broad strokes, there are two factors in predicting totals: pace and efficiency. For me, pace is the easiest to figure out. Over the years I have tweaked my pace analysis to the point where, barring OT, I am pretty accurate. So in calculating a range of predicted scores I use pace as a constant and efficiency as my variable. I use team points per possession performance to calculate a standard deviation for each team. From there I calculate efficiency to one standard deviation to the good and the bad.

    im sure my math could be better, but at some point the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. My old thread from last year is still on the first page, and I included a link to my model for this season earlier in the week. GL!

  24. #24
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    UC Davis/Milwaukee, Under 148
    Range is tight here. 138.1-138.5. These teams are at #51 and #60 for adjusted tempo, so don't be surprised if we're biting our nails at the end
    Well, no nail biting, because they beat the crap out of that number. Very similar to the Portland State/Gonzaga matchup. Very tight range, with teams that like to move the ball. The numbers, thus far, have seemed to indicate that a much larger range in totals (more divergent tempos/styles) will allow for more success in totals wagering. We'll just keep plugging away.

  25. #25
    teecee
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    North Texas/Long Beach State, Ov 126.5

    range 123-145.9, with North Texas adj tempo #362 and LBSU #32.

  26. #26
    teecee
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    Take the L

  27. #27
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    North Texas/Long Beach State, Ov 126.5

    range 123-145.9, with North Texas adj tempo #362 and LBSU #32.
    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    Take the L
    Over the years I have found that figuring out the pace when two teams have contrasting styles is more difficult than if they're both uptempo or both slow down. There's more than one way to do this, so YMMV. GL!

  28. #28
    ENFUEGOMIAMI
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    HellavaGuy great point
    only time i go with contrasting styles of play O/U is if i really like a side thus a total with it
    ex. portland and the over or a Defensive team and the under
    good luck

  29. #29
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Over the years I have found that figuring out the pace when two teams have contrasting styles is more difficult than if they're both uptempo or both slow down. There's more than one way to do this, so YMMV. GL!
    I don't know what YMMV means, but thanks for the input. Yeah, I'm really new to the totals game, so I haven't had a chance to discover any sort of nuances yet.
    Last edited by teecee; 11-29-22 at 01:36 PM.

  30. #30
    teecee
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    Most of the games I run numbers for, in which the teams have a similar tempo/style, I can never (hardly ever)find enough of an advantage to make a play. Very low percentage of games have even made the cut.

  31. #31
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by ENFUEGOMIAMI View Post
    HellavaGuy great point
    only time i go with contrasting styles of play O/U is if i really like a side thus a total with it
    ex. portland and the over or a Defensive team and the under
    good luck
    I expected LBSU to hang with North Texas. Obviously, it did not work out as planned. "My numbers" told me that North Texas was the play, but honestly, those numbers have led me to be a losing wagerer over time, so I have started fading them.
    Last edited by teecee; 11-29-22 at 01:41 PM.

  32. #32
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    I don't know what YMMV means, but thanks for the input. Yeah, I'm really new to the totals game, so I haven't had a chance to discover any sort of nuances yet.
    YMMV = your mileage may vary

    Just meant that you may have an approach that can reconcile contrasting styles. I find it difficult because then you have to quantify whether it’s the pace that controls, the relative strength of the teams involved, or (most likely) a combination of the two.

    I’m happy to offer thoughts on how I do what I do and/or other possible approaches. I started focusing on totals about 10 years ago and finally have it down to where I’m almost 100% model based with a few checks of things like injuries, etc.

    With nearly 6,000 games in a college season, there are a lot of opportunities to find an edge. GL!

  33. #33
    stevenash
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    My go-to guy is Jeff Sagarin.

  34. #34
    Hawkeye94
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    My go to team for a win is to bet against Green Bay (Horizon conference). They never cover. 0-6 this year.

  35. #35
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye94 View Post
    My go to team for a win is to bet against Green Bay (Horizon conference). They never cover. 0-6 this year.
    You on Milwaukee tonight, Hawkeye? I will be.

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