Originally Posted by
Fred The Hammer
The theory is simple and I obviously didn't invent it. Find smaller schools, among the 350+ teams, and pound an angle. Everybody and their cousin bets Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, etc, but its easier to beat the little schools even if you can't find them on TV somewhere
My favorite Frankenstein monster I'm working on so far is Youngstown State. Happened to watch them at the sportsbook during the Colts/Raiders last Sunday. They were running-n-gunning with Notre Dame and lost like 88-81. Something like 20 points Over the total. I made a little on Over 155.5 or something live. They're all black by the way which I point out not to be racist, but that there is usually some value to the stereotype that they don't usually prefer 4 corners style slow ass basketball
Anyway took them yesterday -5.5 over UC San Diego because they were like 125 spots higher on KenPom and they beat them easily. I stayed away from the Over because UCSD is bad offensively and #337 pace
Actually I might've lost today when they got spanked by Navy as a 3.5 pt fav, but I was too busy today to pay attention to cbb.
What drew my attention though is they got beat 80-67 by Navy today which went Over the 139.5 total. 80 points to Navy and their #328 pace. They went 20 points Over with Notre Dame and their #335 pace. Thats out of 363 listed teams.
Youngstown is now 4-2 and #179 on KP. #82 on offense, #308 on defense, and #103 on tempo. They're 5-1 Over and they've played some of the slowest f teams in cbb! Wait til they get in with some average to quick tempo teams!
I'm 2-0 with them and hope to go atleast 10-5 with them this year when the opponent and numbers are right.
Trust me....the books are not losing sleep over paying people on Youngstown State Overs