1. #71
    HeeluvaGuy
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    12/18

    1:30 Incarnate Word/Central Arkansas o147.5

    175 pts

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  2. #72
    HeeluvaGuy
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    7:00

    Vanderbilt/Loyola (IL) o135.5
    Wagner/La Salle o143


    175 pts

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  3. #73
    HeeluvaGuy
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    8:00
    Louisiana/Arkansas St o146

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  4. #74
    HeeluvaGuy
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    That’s probably it for me tonight. There are probably other plays out there, but I’m not sure I’ll have the time to devote to it the rest of the day.

    BOL on all of your plays!

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  5. #75
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    12/18

    1:30 Incarnate Word/Central Arkansas o147.5


    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    7:00

    Vanderbilt/Loyola (IL) o135.5
    Wagner/La Salle o143



    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    8:00
    Louisiana/Arkansas St o146


    2-1-1 +.9u
    YTD: 31-20 +9.05u

    Got lucky with the OT in the early game, but the late game was a bummer. Needed 4 to push and 5 to win in the last 1:54. From there, they went 0-6 from the field and 4-8 from the line.
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  6. #76
    JayDr3am
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    smashing the overs. nice. i keep seeing them cash but im hesitant to jump on them

  7. #77
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    2-1-1 +.9u
    YTD: 31-20 +9.05u

    Got lucky with the OT in the early game, but the late game was a bummer. Needed 4 to push and 5 to win in the last 1:54. From there, they went 0-6 from the field and 4-8 from the line.
    Tail daily. You don't care who wins or loses or covers. I'm jealous. 31-20 +9.05u Free throws needed. BOL HGuy.

  8. #78
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    Tail daily. You don't care who wins or loses or covers. I'm jealous. 31-20 +9.05u Free throws needed. BOL HGuy.
    Yeah, I don't play a lot of sides these days. And I definitely play more overs than unders, so free throws are always important. Glad you like what I do. Helps to get off to a good start.

    Plays may be limited a bit over the next few days. I have noticed that my model is overestimating possessions. I want to take some time to see if I need to make an adjustment, and there are only so many hours in the day. That said, I will likely have a few plays later today.

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  9. #79
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Yeah, I don't play a lot of sides these days. And I definitely play more overs than unders, so free throws are always important. Glad you like what I do. Helps to get off to a good start.

    Plays may be limited a bit over the next few days. I have noticed that my model is overestimating possessions. I want to take some time to see if I need to make an adjustment, and there are only so many hours in the day. That said, I will likely have a few plays later today.

    Possessions is 9/10th of your handicapping.Most important meal of the day is food for thought.

  10. #80
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    Possessions is 9/10th of your handicapping.Most important meal of the day is food for thought.
    “Tempo is everything; perfection unattainable.” - Roy McAvoy
    175 pts

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  11. #81
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    “Tempo is everything; perfection unattainable.” - Roy McAvoy

  12. #82
    HeeluvaGuy
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    12/19

    7:00

    UT Arlington/Georgia St o141

    10:00

    Portland St/Loyola Marymount o142.5

    That’s it for now. Might have an add or two if the lines move the right way.

    175 pts

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  13. #83
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayDr3am View Post
    smashing the overs. nice. i keep seeing them cash but im hesitant to jump on them
    Thanks Jay. I’m always hesitant to tail anyone, so I totally get it. That’s why I try to provide some background on how I approach things. Even if folks aren’t inclined to tail, I hope I can offer some thoughts that might help in making picks.

    Nice work on your thread. BOL this season and thanks for stopping by.

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  14. #84
    JayDr3am
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    thanks and GL tonight on your picks

  15. #85
    BetThenSweat
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    12/19

    7:00

    UT Arlington/Georgia St o141

    10:00

    Portland St/Loyola Marymount o142.5

    That’s it for now. Might have an add or two if the lines move the right way.

    ABSOLUTELY LOVE the Portland State/Loyola Marymount over! Good luck

  16. #86
    doubledime
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    Good luck tonight

  17. #87
    HeeluvaGuy
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    I’m passing on this because I waited too long on the line, but I thought these historical numbers were pretty interesting for the NIU/Chicago St game: https://www.masseyratings.com/rivals...&lg=41458&d0=0

    Looks like NIU regularly uses this game to take out some aggressions. In the last two meetings NIU is 25-50 from three.
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  18. #88
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by doubledime View Post
    Good luck tonight
    Thanks. You as well.

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  19. #89
    BagelBoy
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    Have been tailing your plays since the 0-3 day. Good work, man - keep it up. Cheers

  20. #90
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    12/19

    7:00

    UT Arlington/Georgia St o141

    10:00

    Portland St/Loyola Marymount o142.5
    1-1 -.1u
    YTD: 32-21 +8.95u
    Brutal loss in the late game. After an 80-point first half they scored just 62 in the second to lose by the hook.
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  21. #91
    HockeyOtt1978
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    1-1 -.1u
    YTD: 32-21 +8.95u
    Brutal loss in the late game. After an 80-point first half they scored just 62 in the second to lose by the hook.
    Tough loss indeed, but you made the right pick regardless of the final outcome.

  22. #92
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BagelBoy View Post
    Have been tailing your plays since the 0-3 day. Good work, man - keep it up. Cheers
    Glad it’s working out for us. Thanks for posting.

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  23. #93
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quick little update on my model ...

    In games where my predicted total is more than 10 points off of the line, the model is 123-90 (57.1%). That’s over 16 days. Only 3 of those days resulted in a net loss.

    I’m not suggesting that those plays should be blindly followed, but the results are worth noting when deciding on what to play.

    Back in a bit with some plays for today. Looking like more sides than totals FWIW.
    175 pts

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  24. #94
    HeeluvaGuy
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    12/20

    2:30

    Drexel +108

    5:00

    Towson +7

    7:00

    James Madison/Fordham o138
    Bowling Green/Norfolk St o135.5

    8:00

    UIC +5

    175 pts

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  25. #95
    BagelBoy
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    Welp for every bad beat I guess there's a lucky win, or 2. Crazy finishes on both overs. Good stuff man.

    Cheers

  26. #96
    JonnyDimes
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    Great end of regulation for norfolk!

  27. #97
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BagelBoy View Post
    Welp for every bad beat I guess there's a lucky win, or 2. Crazy finishes on both overs. Good stuff man.

    Cheers

    Helps make up for last night. Neither of those totals deserved to win, but I won't complain.
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  28. #98
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    12/20

    2:30

    Drexel +108

    5:00

    Towson +7

    7:00

    James Madison/Fordham o138
    Bowling Green/Norfolk St o135.5

    8:00

    UIC +5

    4-1 +2.98u
    YTD: 36-22 +11.93u
    Probably should have been 2-3 tonight, but we had more than a little luck with the totals.
    175 pts

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  29. #99
    gressyville
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    Nice work

  30. #100
    doubledime
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    4-1 +2.98u
    YTD: 36-22 +11.93u
    Probably should have been 2-3 tonight, but we had more than a little luck with the totals.
    Well done

  31. #101
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by doubledime View Post
    Well done
    Thank you sir. Helps to get lucky from time to time.
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  32. #102
    docgerry1
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    After you use your model to screen for eligible selections...Have you found any correlation between point spread of game and total?

  33. #103
    HeeluvaGuy
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    12/21

    12:00

    NC A&T/Wake Forest o137

    1:00
    Missouri +140

    Texas St/Georgia St o138

    Montana/Omaha o140

    Idaho/South Dakota St o139.5


    Notes: (1) I'm getting through the card as quickly as I can. Will post any plays as soon as they are in. (2) I tweaked my model yesterday to account for the overestimation of possessions. The net result is roughly a 4 point drop in all predicted totals. Sides were only slightly affected.
    175 pts

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  34. #104
    docgerry1
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    More specifically are large lined games more likely to go over/ under in your qualifiers

  35. #105
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by docgerry1 View Post
    More specifically are large lined games more likely to go over/ under in your qualifiers
    The short answer is that it appears so. This is what I posted yesterday on the subject. Yesterday the >10 point difference totals went 6-3. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results and all that...

    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Quick little update on my model ...

    In games where my predicted total is more than 10 points off of the line, the model is 123-90 (57.1%). That’s over 16 days. Only 3 of those days resulted in a net loss.

    I’m not suggesting that those plays should be blindly followed, but the results are worth noting when deciding on what to play.

    Back in a bit with some plays for today. Looking like more sides than totals FWIW.
    175 pts

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