The Prop Shop: Final Four Edition

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    The Prop Shop: Final Four Edition
    While everyone is trying to find a side or total to play, the Prop Shop is where I stop. Going pretty substantial on this.

    Butler-Michigan State Total Three Pointers Made OVER 11.5 (-140)
    Butler is shooting just 42% for the tournament, but they have been able to take advantage of teams from beyond the arc. Butler is making 33 of 90, good for 36%. That matches up well against State which has given up 28 threes in 72 attempts in the tournament [39%]. The Spartans have been solid during their run, shooting 46% from the floor. State hasn't received enough credit their long distance shooting, hitting 30 of 74 during the tournament [40%]. Of the eight games between the two in the tournament, only one had a total less than this and that was 11. Durrell Summers is the key to this prop as he accounts for most of State's threes. Butler has some quality perimeter defenders, notably Ronald Noren, but even so the shooters on the opposition against Butler have gotten loose for shots. Pullen & Clement combined for 5/12, Rautins hit 4/8 himself and Murray State had three players with multiple threes. Half of Butler's squad can hoist and hit threes, posing a supreme challenge for Izzo's boys. The 3 point shot is a big part of the Butler offense, so by sheer volume, they should have plenty of opportunities to provide for at least half this total. The Bulldogs have hit no less than six threes in any game so far and I think that trend continues today seeing as the Spartans have had troubles shutting down the long ball. If Butler can get seven or better, I think State can find a way to do the rest.
  • lacesout
    SBR MVP
    • 10-18-09
    • 1142

    #2
    Like this, good luck!
    Comment
    • KingKolzig
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-02-10
      • 5550

      #3
      Prop shop, havent seen it in a few weeks. I like this it's a sneaky line as no one figures these teams to shoot a lot of 3's. It should be more like 12 (-125). MSU has been shooting a lot more 3's since lucas went out so you should be getting 38+ attempts on the game. Hit just above a meager 30% and you still win the bet. I figure it ends up something like:

      MSU 7-19
      Butler 7-20

      GL
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #4
        That'd be gravy. I really think a lot hinges on Summers. Lucious can hit a couple, but Summers is the guy who is going to get State's threes if they get threes. I think he needs to hit at least three for this to cash, unless someone from Butler just goes ape shit - which would be cool too.
        Comment
        • Snowball
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 11-15-09
          • 30064

          #5
          I believe Summers to miss a FT is +160.

          Looking over the points props, especially the totals per team.
          This one looks a bit eschew to me.. Duke o/u 66.5
          Duke avg. 77.4 ppg, West Virginia defense avg. 63.1 points allowed.
          63.1 points allowed is only 3.4 points below the Duke o/u.
          Are we to believe Duke is only 3.4 points better than WV's average opponent in scoring ?
          I know the default answer about how this game is "expected" to be a defensive matchup, but still.. the o/u is also 11 points less than Duke avg.

          Duke over 66.5 total points
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #6
            West Virginia - Kevin Jones Total Rebounds OVER 7 (-125)
            Solid one for the second semifinal here. Jones has averaged just over 8 boards per game in the tournament with 8 or better in each game. Jones has good bulk at 250 to match up against the likes of the Plumlees, Zoubek and Lance Thomas. The best thing about Jones is that he has been very good at avoiding foul trouble in the West Virginia zone scheme. He has fouled out just once all year and that was the only game in which he picked up more than three fouls. The Mountaineers should make rebounding one of their top priorities after Duke got numerous second chance opportunities against the Baylor zone. I think that leads to a determined effort by Jones and co. on the glass for West Virginia.
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #7
              Originally posted by Snowball
              I believe Summers to miss a FT is +160. Looking over the points props, especially the totals per team. This one looks a bit eschew to me.. Duke o/u 66.5 Duke avg. 77.4 ppg, West Virginia defense avg. 63.1 points allowed. 63.1 points allowed is only 3.4 points below the Duke o/u. Are we to believe Duke is only 3.4 points better than WV's average opponent in scoring ? I know the default answer about how this game is "expected" to be a defensive matchup, but still.. the o/u is also 11 points less than Duke avg. Duke over 66.5 total points
              Good luck on that one. I think that is based mostly on West Virginia and their defensive numbers so far in the tournament. Duke hasn't shot exceptionally well from the field and I think that's why you see that total where it is. I think if they get to the line, you've got a shot there - well that and they must hit their threes.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #8
                Solid 1st half for the threes with 8. If they combine for 20+ attempts in the 2nd half, I'll take my chances that 4 find the bottom of the net!
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #9
                  Truly f*cking horrible 2nd half. Not even TAKING threes. I think there have been three attempts. What in the F.
                  Comment
                  • KingKolzig
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 02-02-10
                    • 5550

                    #10
                    crazy second half. Mack not hydrating himself thus sitting with cramps really hurt you. so many times nored and the other Butler guards had WIDE OPEN 3pt looks and simply didnt shoot them, instead opting for an ok chance by howard inside or a failed nored drive. If mack was in there then he would have shot a lot more of those from deep. I cant even remember what MSU tried to do on offense it was so ugly
                    Comment
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