Mountaineers set sights on Blue Devils
The upset of seed Kentucky just behind them, Bob Huggins and his West Virginia squad will now meet the last No. 1 seed left in the Final Four. The Mountaineers are drawing early support from bettors as the dogs, yet the line still keeps moving in their favor. For once, however, Duke is not overrated with the Blue Devils bringing the top-ranked offense and third-ranked defense into Saturday's tip from Lucas Oil Stadium.
And then there was one.
The Duke Blue Devils are the only No. 1 seed left at the NCAA men’s Tournament. But there’s no free ride to the championship for Duke; the No. 2 West Virginia Mountaineers are up next, the same team that eliminated the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-4) at the Elite Eight.
The Mountaineers (31-6 SU, 17-19 ATS) are the real deal, and bettors are treating them that way. Consensus reports at press time showed 56 percent support for West Virginia (+2½) in Saturday’s national semifinal.
And yet the betting odds are moving in the other direction. The Blue Devils (33-5 SU, 22-13-2 ATS) were favored by 1½ or 2 points at the open, depending on where you were shopping. Market indicators aren’t always reliable, but you can infer from these reports that some high rollers have come in on Duke’s side in this matchup.
It’s pretty easy to build a case for Duke. You can always start with the idea that this is the most hated team in college basketball, and therefore a good value pick – squares are more likely to bet for the result they want to see, such as Duke getting crushed by 30 points. Then the meat of the argument: The Blue Devils are the best team in Division I according to Ken Pomeroy’s industry-standard efficiency numbers. Every handicapper should be familiar with that website’s pale blue screen by now.
West Virginia is still a monster of a team at No. 5 in efficiency and well deserving of some public attention. Coach Bob Huggins has done a masterful job of tailoring the Mountaineers to suit the situation. His most recent challenge: replacing point guard Darryl “Truck” Bryant, who broke his foot in the second round win over the Missouri Tigers (+6). Joe Mazzulla got his first start of the season against Kentucky and was the star of the game with 17 points and three assists.
Bryant says he’s “90 percent” certain he’ll be ready for Saturday, but Huggins told ESPN that Bryant is “very doubtful” to face the Blue Devils after sitting out Tuesday’s practice. Huggins may already have other plans, anyway. He’s switched from man-on-man defense to a 1-3-1 zone, and Mazzulla is a superior defender in that system. The Wildcats made only four of their 32 three-point attempts against West Virginia after missing their first 20 in a row.
That was a bad shooting night even for the Wildcats. They were No. 219 in Division I this year with a 33.1-percent success rate from beyond the arc. Duke is No. 29 at 38.2 percent, led by the deadly scoring trio of Nolan Smith (39.6 percent), Kyle Singler (39.1 percent) and Jon Scheyer (38.1 percent), who lit up the Baylor Bears with a 5-of-10 performance in the Elite Eight. Baylor also ran a zone defense, a 1-2-2 in this case.
Scheyer has had some dry spells at the Big Dance, especially that 1-of-11 night in the second round against California, but Duke (-6½) still beat the Golden Bears 68-53. The Blue Devils have the luxury of the No. 3-ranked defense in Division I as well as the No. 1-ranked offense. Having Miles and Mason Plumlee (each 6-foot-10) on the roster gives coach Mike Krzyzewski more leverage against taller teams like the Mountaineers, and also helps break down those zone defenses.
“You know, you get better looks when you go inside and then out,” Scheyer told The New York Times. “We can have some great looks inside with our bigs.”
Every bucket will be precious in this matchup. The 'under' is 12-4 in Duke’s last 16 games and 7-1 in West Virginia’s last eight. The books have Saturday’s total at 131 points, and yes, the betting public is firmly on the 'over' at 84 percent according to the consensus reports. Maybe they’re expecting another overtime game – and maybe they’ll get it. Tip-off is at 8:47 p.m. ET on CBS.
The upset of seed Kentucky just behind them, Bob Huggins and his West Virginia squad will now meet the last No. 1 seed left in the Final Four. The Mountaineers are drawing early support from bettors as the dogs, yet the line still keeps moving in their favor. For once, however, Duke is not overrated with the Blue Devils bringing the top-ranked offense and third-ranked defense into Saturday's tip from Lucas Oil Stadium.
And then there was one.
The Duke Blue Devils are the only No. 1 seed left at the NCAA men’s Tournament. But there’s no free ride to the championship for Duke; the No. 2 West Virginia Mountaineers are up next, the same team that eliminated the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-4) at the Elite Eight.
The Mountaineers (31-6 SU, 17-19 ATS) are the real deal, and bettors are treating them that way. Consensus reports at press time showed 56 percent support for West Virginia (+2½) in Saturday’s national semifinal.
And yet the betting odds are moving in the other direction. The Blue Devils (33-5 SU, 22-13-2 ATS) were favored by 1½ or 2 points at the open, depending on where you were shopping. Market indicators aren’t always reliable, but you can infer from these reports that some high rollers have come in on Duke’s side in this matchup.
It’s pretty easy to build a case for Duke. You can always start with the idea that this is the most hated team in college basketball, and therefore a good value pick – squares are more likely to bet for the result they want to see, such as Duke getting crushed by 30 points. Then the meat of the argument: The Blue Devils are the best team in Division I according to Ken Pomeroy’s industry-standard efficiency numbers. Every handicapper should be familiar with that website’s pale blue screen by now.
West Virginia is still a monster of a team at No. 5 in efficiency and well deserving of some public attention. Coach Bob Huggins has done a masterful job of tailoring the Mountaineers to suit the situation. His most recent challenge: replacing point guard Darryl “Truck” Bryant, who broke his foot in the second round win over the Missouri Tigers (+6). Joe Mazzulla got his first start of the season against Kentucky and was the star of the game with 17 points and three assists.
Bryant says he’s “90 percent” certain he’ll be ready for Saturday, but Huggins told ESPN that Bryant is “very doubtful” to face the Blue Devils after sitting out Tuesday’s practice. Huggins may already have other plans, anyway. He’s switched from man-on-man defense to a 1-3-1 zone, and Mazzulla is a superior defender in that system. The Wildcats made only four of their 32 three-point attempts against West Virginia after missing their first 20 in a row.
That was a bad shooting night even for the Wildcats. They were No. 219 in Division I this year with a 33.1-percent success rate from beyond the arc. Duke is No. 29 at 38.2 percent, led by the deadly scoring trio of Nolan Smith (39.6 percent), Kyle Singler (39.1 percent) and Jon Scheyer (38.1 percent), who lit up the Baylor Bears with a 5-of-10 performance in the Elite Eight. Baylor also ran a zone defense, a 1-2-2 in this case.
Scheyer has had some dry spells at the Big Dance, especially that 1-of-11 night in the second round against California, but Duke (-6½) still beat the Golden Bears 68-53. The Blue Devils have the luxury of the No. 3-ranked defense in Division I as well as the No. 1-ranked offense. Having Miles and Mason Plumlee (each 6-foot-10) on the roster gives coach Mike Krzyzewski more leverage against taller teams like the Mountaineers, and also helps break down those zone defenses.
“You know, you get better looks when you go inside and then out,” Scheyer told The New York Times. “We can have some great looks inside with our bigs.”
Every bucket will be precious in this matchup. The 'under' is 12-4 in Duke’s last 16 games and 7-1 in West Virginia’s last eight. The books have Saturday’s total at 131 points, and yes, the betting public is firmly on the 'over' at 84 percent according to the consensus reports. Maybe they’re expecting another overtime game – and maybe they’ll get it. Tip-off is at 8:47 p.m. ET on CBS.
