Some of you have seen me post rarely, but I'm not a homer and try to be objective about my Vols. I did a short write up on the OSU game and it proved helpful, so here's one for today. Hope it helps someone.
Today is going to be a tough, physical game. Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in the history of the game and one trademark of his MSU teams in big games is how physical they are. So, first off, I have a ton of respect for that team.
One of the biggest factors I see in this game is MSU's lack of success against teams of similar physical talent that UT has. State has its own athletes, but losses to UF, OSU, Purdue, UNC and Illinois lead me to believe they will struggle against a team as well equipped as they are.
This year, for the most part, MSU has fed off inferior teams talent wise, and that isn't the case today. Tennessee is going to throw 9 capable players at them, as many as they've seen in one game.
The other big advantage UT has today is that the Vols defense shines when there is no "star". I know that sounds elementary, but take Kansas. While Collins is a big name, that offense shares the ball and no one person is depended on to create for that offense more than half the time. Tennessee beat Kansas.
You saw UT struggle with Turner, but didn't allow the role players around him to feed off his dominance. With Lucas hurt, State has NO go to player, especially on the perimeter. UT has been playing very good perimeter defense all tournament and I look for that to continue.
Where this game will be close will be a couple of things IMO.
State will probably run more perimeter ball screens than they normally do, as we have a terrible time defending them. I would expect Morgan to have some good numbers if he stays out of foul trouble.
Another thing Izzo will do is play a ton of 2-3 zone. UT hasn't proven to be able to bust that open three at any point, much less crucial times. There's no doubt the strength of the Vols is their size and ability to rebound with Williams, Chism and Prince, so I look for Izzo to dare UT to beat him from the perimeter.
In the end, I see two bets in this game. I like UT to win and the line is only 1.5, so I'm laying the points, and I love the under. I see this as a 125-130 point game where both teams play slow to try and really take care of the ball and make the most out of every possession.
It should be a classic today, two of the best coaches in the game and more importantly, two of the best rosters of assistant coaches as well. Both teams will be well prepared.
Good Luck.
Today is going to be a tough, physical game. Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in the history of the game and one trademark of his MSU teams in big games is how physical they are. So, first off, I have a ton of respect for that team.
One of the biggest factors I see in this game is MSU's lack of success against teams of similar physical talent that UT has. State has its own athletes, but losses to UF, OSU, Purdue, UNC and Illinois lead me to believe they will struggle against a team as well equipped as they are.
This year, for the most part, MSU has fed off inferior teams talent wise, and that isn't the case today. Tennessee is going to throw 9 capable players at them, as many as they've seen in one game.
The other big advantage UT has today is that the Vols defense shines when there is no "star". I know that sounds elementary, but take Kansas. While Collins is a big name, that offense shares the ball and no one person is depended on to create for that offense more than half the time. Tennessee beat Kansas.
You saw UT struggle with Turner, but didn't allow the role players around him to feed off his dominance. With Lucas hurt, State has NO go to player, especially on the perimeter. UT has been playing very good perimeter defense all tournament and I look for that to continue.
Where this game will be close will be a couple of things IMO.
State will probably run more perimeter ball screens than they normally do, as we have a terrible time defending them. I would expect Morgan to have some good numbers if he stays out of foul trouble.
Another thing Izzo will do is play a ton of 2-3 zone. UT hasn't proven to be able to bust that open three at any point, much less crucial times. There's no doubt the strength of the Vols is their size and ability to rebound with Williams, Chism and Prince, so I look for Izzo to dare UT to beat him from the perimeter.
In the end, I see two bets in this game. I like UT to win and the line is only 1.5, so I'm laying the points, and I love the under. I see this as a 125-130 point game where both teams play slow to try and really take care of the ball and make the most out of every possession.
It should be a classic today, two of the best coaches in the game and more importantly, two of the best rosters of assistant coaches as well. Both teams will be well prepared.
Good Luck.
