I pasted it here for those of you who do not have ESPN Insider. This Chad Millman guy is sharp. Do what you want with it.
Wiseguy Elite Eight breakdown (Part I)
As soon as Kansas State-Xavier went into double OT on Thursday night I got this e-mail from Sal at MadduxSports.com: "Here is your interesting stat for Saturday's games since K State just went into double OT and I know you are wondering: Teams in the ncaa tournament that are off an overtime game and have three or less days off since that game (anything more would eliminate the emotional and fatigue factor) are 24-39 ATS their next game out. It has actually happened three times this year so far and those teams -- Wake Forest, Villanova, and BYU -- are 0-3 ATS."
I of course called Sal on Friday afternoon to get his take on KSU-Butler, which opened at KSU minus-4.5. I asked him about Kentucky-West Virginia, too. But he didn't have much of an opinion. "I won't bet it, but I will be rooting for West Virginia."
So for that I brought in Paul Stone, whom I caught while he was driving to the Baylor-Saint Mary's game in Houston.
Here are their takes on Saturday's Elite Eight games:
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Butler Bulldogs
Current line: Kansas St. minus-4
Sal says: "I'm going to be on Butler plus-4. That is a pretty damn good bet. This Butler team is super well-coached. You could see when Butler got down for the first time midway through the second half last night and the coach called timeout. Out of that the team ran a screen and a guy got a layup. Syracuse came down and missed. Butler came back down, ran a back pick and got a dunk. There is just a huge difference in coaching between this program and a lot of others. Kansas State is superathletic and it worries me a little in this game. But, unless the adrenaline is running just sick, I think with the amount of effort it had to put in against Xavier, combined with only a day off, will hurt. Butler runs around a lot on its sets and uses a lot of shot clock and runs players around picks all day. I think the fair line is 3.5 or 4, but that's if KSU isn't gassed. I actually think Butler is going to win this game."
Kentucky Wildcats vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Current line: Kentucky minus-4 (but opened minus-2.5); total is 133
Paul says: "I made the number 3, and solely based on that I like West Virginia. Kentucky has played at a highly efficient level through the first three games of the tourney, but I think there is overreaction on the part of the linemaker and the public to the Wildcats right now, especially if you looked at the performances of both teams last night. But we had 35 games before that to make a judgment on West Virginia, and I don't think losing its point guard will make a difference. Four points is a generous amount. I played the 4, but I will also play the under, which I think is a more attractive bet. West Virginia is going to slow it down and make this a slugfest."
Wiseguy Elite Eight breakdown (Part I)
As soon as Kansas State-Xavier went into double OT on Thursday night I got this e-mail from Sal at MadduxSports.com: "Here is your interesting stat for Saturday's games since K State just went into double OT and I know you are wondering: Teams in the ncaa tournament that are off an overtime game and have three or less days off since that game (anything more would eliminate the emotional and fatigue factor) are 24-39 ATS their next game out. It has actually happened three times this year so far and those teams -- Wake Forest, Villanova, and BYU -- are 0-3 ATS."
I of course called Sal on Friday afternoon to get his take on KSU-Butler, which opened at KSU minus-4.5. I asked him about Kentucky-West Virginia, too. But he didn't have much of an opinion. "I won't bet it, but I will be rooting for West Virginia."
So for that I brought in Paul Stone, whom I caught while he was driving to the Baylor-Saint Mary's game in Houston.
Here are their takes on Saturday's Elite Eight games:
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Butler Bulldogs
Current line: Kansas St. minus-4
Sal says: "I'm going to be on Butler plus-4. That is a pretty damn good bet. This Butler team is super well-coached. You could see when Butler got down for the first time midway through the second half last night and the coach called timeout. Out of that the team ran a screen and a guy got a layup. Syracuse came down and missed. Butler came back down, ran a back pick and got a dunk. There is just a huge difference in coaching between this program and a lot of others. Kansas State is superathletic and it worries me a little in this game. But, unless the adrenaline is running just sick, I think with the amount of effort it had to put in against Xavier, combined with only a day off, will hurt. Butler runs around a lot on its sets and uses a lot of shot clock and runs players around picks all day. I think the fair line is 3.5 or 4, but that's if KSU isn't gassed. I actually think Butler is going to win this game."
Kentucky Wildcats vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Current line: Kentucky minus-4 (but opened minus-2.5); total is 133
Paul says: "I made the number 3, and solely based on that I like West Virginia. Kentucky has played at a highly efficient level through the first three games of the tourney, but I think there is overreaction on the part of the linemaker and the public to the Wildcats right now, especially if you looked at the performances of both teams last night. But we had 35 games before that to make a judgment on West Virginia, and I don't think losing its point guard will make a difference. Four points is a generous amount. I played the 4, but I will also play the under, which I think is a more attractive bet. West Virginia is going to slow it down and make this a slugfest."
