I believe this total on the Michigan State vs. Northern Iowa Game is way off. We normally only see totals this low with two low paced teams, and you pretty much dont see a number this low in the tournamnet ever.
I believe that a big reason this number is so low is that Northern Iowa has only given up 55 points per game this year while only scoring 64. But those are some very misleading numbers. I mean I am not trying to take anything away from Northern Iowa, after all they did beat Kansas. But come on, this team plays in the Missouri Valley Conference. Its one thing to hold that conference to 55 PPG but an entirely different thing to hold the Big Ten's best in the 50's.
The last 5 MVC games, Northern held their opponents 55, 55, 40, 40, and 52. But in the NCAA tourney UNLV got 66 and Kansas got 67. Those were both close games without the fouling at the end that is typical otherwise both those teams would have broken 70.
The Northern Iowa vs. Kansas game came with a total of 127 or 128 and Northern was able to get out to a big lead and then dictate the tempo of the game, yet it still went over by almost 10 full points. It seems that the linesmakers have not fully adjusted for the fact that Northern Iowa is now facing opponents with far more potent offenses than what they have seen throughout MVC play.
I am not taking a position on who will win, and I wouldnt be surprised if Northern Iowa continues on. But I will say this, there will be quite a bit more than 122 scored in this game. These Spartans average 73 points per game, and thats against some pretty good defenses in the big Ten. Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, Minnesota. Still the Spartans average well into the 70's.
The Spartans come in off an 85 point performance against Maryland, and have scored 155 points in 2 tourney games so far. I think Michigan State will want to push the tempo here and not get into the slower style game that Northern Forced its first two opponents into.
MSU Coach Tom Izzo has been around for a long time and coached in many games and he will have his team ready for this one. The Spartans are not going to be confused or Surprised by the Panthers defnse here. I think that Kalin Lewis, Raymar Morgan, Green and Summers will all get 12 or more points, and Northern also brings 4 guys with double digit scoring averages. So I think we have a great chance of seeing 130 or more here.
I think another big advantage for the over here is that this far into the tourney teams arent going to just give up. We will likely see a good deal of fouling late in the game, and just that in itself would make it impossible for me to go under a number this low.
One site I see says that the over is getting 91% of the play here and this is one case where I think the public is right. In fact, like I said I just cant see how anyone could go under this low of a number when there could easily be 20 points scored in the last 2 minutes.
Good Luck on all plays.
I believe that a big reason this number is so low is that Northern Iowa has only given up 55 points per game this year while only scoring 64. But those are some very misleading numbers. I mean I am not trying to take anything away from Northern Iowa, after all they did beat Kansas. But come on, this team plays in the Missouri Valley Conference. Its one thing to hold that conference to 55 PPG but an entirely different thing to hold the Big Ten's best in the 50's.
The last 5 MVC games, Northern held their opponents 55, 55, 40, 40, and 52. But in the NCAA tourney UNLV got 66 and Kansas got 67. Those were both close games without the fouling at the end that is typical otherwise both those teams would have broken 70.
The Northern Iowa vs. Kansas game came with a total of 127 or 128 and Northern was able to get out to a big lead and then dictate the tempo of the game, yet it still went over by almost 10 full points. It seems that the linesmakers have not fully adjusted for the fact that Northern Iowa is now facing opponents with far more potent offenses than what they have seen throughout MVC play.
I am not taking a position on who will win, and I wouldnt be surprised if Northern Iowa continues on. But I will say this, there will be quite a bit more than 122 scored in this game. These Spartans average 73 points per game, and thats against some pretty good defenses in the big Ten. Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, Minnesota. Still the Spartans average well into the 70's.
The Spartans come in off an 85 point performance against Maryland, and have scored 155 points in 2 tourney games so far. I think Michigan State will want to push the tempo here and not get into the slower style game that Northern Forced its first two opponents into.
MSU Coach Tom Izzo has been around for a long time and coached in many games and he will have his team ready for this one. The Spartans are not going to be confused or Surprised by the Panthers defnse here. I think that Kalin Lewis, Raymar Morgan, Green and Summers will all get 12 or more points, and Northern also brings 4 guys with double digit scoring averages. So I think we have a great chance of seeing 130 or more here.
I think another big advantage for the over here is that this far into the tourney teams arent going to just give up. We will likely see a good deal of fouling late in the game, and just that in itself would make it impossible for me to go under a number this low.
One site I see says that the over is getting 91% of the play here and this is one case where I think the public is right. In fact, like I said I just cant see how anyone could go under this low of a number when there could easily be 20 points scored in the last 2 minutes.
Good Luck on all plays.
