Should i hedge???

iceminers26 · 03-23-10, 12:34 AM

It really all depends on your bankroll and the percentage of it that you placed on these future plays, I don't want to know and its not really any of my business to know this, but the only advice I can give you is that if you have a relatively smaller bankroll and you can guarantee yourself a nice profit by hedging, then by all means get to hedging and guarantee yourself a profit so that bankroll can increase. If you only put smaller plays on these compared to the size of your overall bankroll, you may just let them go and see how they pan out.

Personally I have futures on Baylor 1x and Kansas State 2x to reach the FF and Kansas State 1x to win it all and I'm just going to ride them out and hope for the best. However, I am a firm believer that when you can guarantee yourself a profit in this business you take it almost every time. I just don't do futures that often and want to ride them out and see what happens.

Good luck with your plays and if you hedge or don't hedge.

HoulihansTX · 03-23-10, 12:37 AM

No need to hedge until the teams make it to the Elite 8.

Besides all of those teams are favored to win, so the percentages are working for you.

You start hedging all of those bets now, and you will not make any money.

ebbearsfb1 · 03-23-10, 12:41 AM

yea i guess the only team i would be worried about is baylor, and if they win this game, im hoping they play purdue, as i think they would be a favorite and could still make a good profit, but if they play duke they will be a dog, and could just simple break even if i don't like what im seeing thanks for the help guys

hopefully it works out

HoulihansTX · 03-23-10, 12:54 AM

you could simple bet against them ML, with them all being favored.

But I dont know how much you stand to win if your bets pan out.

Chi_archie · 03-23-10, 06:56 AM

let em ride

RJBucs · 03-23-10, 10:46 AM

I ws looking into this too, so say you lay $200 on baylor at +200. 200 to win 400 basically. If they win and play duke, do you play the ML on duke and at what amount to hedge and still make money?

Irish Lumberjack · 03-23-10, 11:31 AM

yeah i wouldn't until next round

KingKolzig · 03-23-10, 12:39 PM

UK and Cuse do not hedge. it wont be worth it, they are the favorites. maybe you could take a 2-team ML parlay in the regional finals on the 2 teams facing UK and Cuse. it would pay like 10:1 and would be good insurance in case they both went down.........as for baylor just wait until halftime of the game vs duke to see if you can find middle ground. if not i would just let it ride

CrimsonQueen · 03-23-10, 03:07 PM

I've got Baylor at +600... not planning on hedging til at least the Duke game, but probably halftime of the Duke game like KingKolzig suggested.
St. Mary's is fun to watch though...

iceminers26 · 03-23-10, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by CrimsonQueen

I've got Baylor at +600... not planning on hedging til at least the Duke game, but probably halftime of the Duke game like KingKolzig suggested. St. Mary's is fun to watch though...

I got Baylor too (FF) along with Kansas State (FF and Champion) and think I'm just going to let them ride but I agree with your approach in the Duke game, no need to hedge until halftime because you never know if the good old Duke we no and love will pull their yearly choke job.

RJBucs · 03-23-10, 04:28 PM

Ok so give an exmple of a halftime score and line in the duke game and what the play would be

iceminers26 · 03-23-10, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by RJBucs

Ok so give an exmple of a halftime score and line in the duke game and what the play would be

Okay, I do not intend to hedge either of my futures because I only have a total of 4 units invested on futures (bay FF 1x, K St FF 2x, and K St champions 1x) and want to let them ride but if I was planning on hedging Baylor against Duke I would wait until halftime because I am not that impressed with Duke and they have shown numerous times this year that they are capable of a letdown, especially in the 1H. An example of a score IMO could be Baylor 33 - Duke 29 and the 2H line would be Duke -3, ML +150. If I was hedging I would now play Duke ML at +150 as opposed to what I would probably get on Duke prior to tip in the neighborhood of (-180). There is no value hedging on the opening line when if it comes out where I think it will and just feel that Baylor will not only be competitive in the 1H but for the full game.

KingKolzig · 03-23-10, 06:22 PM

for middlde ground you would need baylor to be winning at halftime, not too far fetched at all...........i figure the Duke line over baylor will be -4 about.......if you could get it at -3.5 and then buy a point to -2.5 i would bet on duke and pray duke doesnt win by 1-2 points. chances are duke wins by 1 or 2 points is like 25:1

Ralphie1412 · 03-23-10, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by KingKolzig

for middlde ground you would need baylor to be winning at halftime, not too far fetched at all...........i figure the Duke line over baylor will be -4 about.......if you could get it at -3.5 and then buy a point to -2.5 i would bet on duke and pray duke doesnt win by 1-2 points. chances are duke wins by 1 or 2 points is like 25:1

25 to 1 huh?

KingKolzig · 03-23-10, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

25 to 1 huh?

Yep

Duke 1-2 +2500
Any other outcome -2800

beanbag · 03-23-10, 07:14 PM

wait till next round... more upsets to come