Wake Forest Tonight!! TONS of value

[fsu2010]

Oh man. I absolutely love Wake Forest +430 ml. First of all, this is a really dangerous game for Kentucky. There are a few factors here that are going to be key for Wake winning this game. Aminu is going to have a huge game at SF. He's going to match up well here, and I can see him putting up another huge game offensively and defensively. Quite possibly the biggest factor is going to be Chase McFarland. What's that you say? Chase McFarland? He is going up against quite possibly the biggest hothead in college basketball today (Demarcus Cousins). McFarland is notorious for being one of the biggest douchebags in the nation. Watch for Cousins to pick up a couple of stupid frustration fouls and maybe even a technical in this game. If McFarland can do his job and get Cousins in foul trouble early, I think Wake is going to be able to keep this one close. How does Wake play in close games you ask? Well, they happen to be 5-0 in overtime games this season, including a 2OT win against Xavier which is looking HUGE right now. (IMO Xavier is a top 15 team, and with Crawford they're going to the elite eight). I digress... In their game against Texas, Gary Clark (a good streaky 3pt shooter for Wake) didn't get any time on the floor. Between Clark, Harris, and Ari Stewart, look for one or two of these guys to get hot from the 3pt line. Kentucky is a lazy team, and if they play the game they've been playing all season (keeping this one close), I think Wake is going to have a much better chance than 18% (how often you need them to win for this to be +EV).
This Kentucky team is not going to keep winning games. This laziness is eventually going to catch up to them, and why not today? If they're going to drop one, this is the perfect spot. I was really surprised with the Texas game. I thought both teams came out and played decent. Obviously not optimal, but they played better than I thought they would.

Wake +430 ml

[fsu2010]

Wake now up to +450. Even more value.

[iceminers26]

tons of value IMO, I threw a unit on the ML as well, good luck

[EaglesPhan36]

I think the books will gladly take your donations. Wake beat a pathetic Texas team that if they had any closing prowess, had them dead to rights in overtime - which is said because Wake controlled that game for the most part and killed the Longhorns on the glass. To their credit, they fought and Smith hit the big shot to win. I don't think Aminu matches up that well against Kentucky's bigs. He's athletic, but thin. The size of Cousins, Patterson and their reserves are going to be a problem down inside for him if that is where Wake keeps him. Wall vs. Smith is going to be fun to watch for sure. You might make a case for taking them with the spread, but on the moneyline this is a dartboard shot in my opinion and even the spread I think is a bit of a reach. Good luck to you as I doubt I'll be playing anything in this game.

[fsu2010]

I think the books will gladly take your donations. Wake beat a pathetic Texas team that if they had any closing prowess, had them dead to rights in overtime - which is said because Wake controlled that game for the most part and killed the Longhorns on the glass. To their credit, they fought and Smith hit the big shot to win. I don't think Aminu matches up that well against Kentucky's bigs. He's athletic, but thin. The size of Cousins, Patterson and their reserves are going to be a problem down inside for him if that is where Wake keeps him. Wall vs. Smith is going to be fun to watch for sure. You might make a case for taking them with the spread, but on the moneyline this is a dartboard shot in my opinion and even the spread I think is a bit of a reach. Good luck to you as I doubt I'll be playing anything in this game.

You obviously did not read anything that I wrote. If you did, your reading comprehension needs some help. First, Aminu is playing the 3 position. So Cousins is going to be a limited factor in his performance. Second, I think that Cousins is going to be in foul trouble most of the game. Obviously I don't THINK they're going to win. Of course Kentucky will probably beat them, however, they only need to win 18% of the time. If you don't think they're going to win approximately 1:5 times, then we need not talk anymore. Also if you think that Patterson has the advantage over Aminu, we certainly disagree here as well. I think you're being a bit close minded here and totally undervaluing this Wake team.

Edit: Not trying to come across as a dick. Sorry if it comes across that way.

[Vince Lombardi]

Wake gets rolled tonight. Barely beat Texas and Texas sucks. Save your money or at least take the points.

[iceminers26]

I think the books will gladly take your donations. Wake beat a pathetic Texas team that if they had any closing prowess, had them dead to rights in overtime - which is said because Wake controlled that game for the most part and killed the Longhorns on the glass. To their credit, they fought and Smith hit the big shot to win. I don't think Aminu matches up that well against Kentucky's bigs. He's athletic, but thin. The size of Cousins, Patterson and their reserves are going to be a problem down inside for him if that is where Wake keeps him. Wall vs. Smith is going to be fun to watch for sure. You might make a case for taking them with the spread, but on the moneyline this is a dartboard shot in my opinion and even the spread I think is a bit of a reach. Good luck to you as I doubt I'll be playing anything in this game.

My small money line play has nothing to do with WF or their 1st round performance, it has to do with Kentucky. I would take any remaining team in the field on the money line against Kentucky at any price above +400 because I feel it presents great value.

[BettingWizard]

Wake has more quality wins than UK this year. Points are a gift

[fsu2010]

Wake gets rolled tonight. Barely beat Texas and Texas sucks. Save your money or at least take the points.

"Texas sucks". "Texas sucks". Jesus, if you don't know what you're talking about, quit posting in this thread. No explanations, no thoughts of your own. Texas doesn't "suck". They played horrific towards the end of the season, and in all honesty they really didn't play too bad against Wake. Just because you want to believe everything you say/hear and then mimmick it in this thread doesn't make you smart. DIAGF.

[fsu2010]

My small money line play has nothing to do with WF or their 1st round performance, it has to do with Kentucky. I would take any remaining team in the field on the money line against Kentucky at any price above +400 because I feel it presents great value.

Absolutely agree. Kentucky is lazy. Did I mention I'm super excited that it's Wake getting these odds? lol. This is as good of a spot as any for Kentucky to get upset.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I think UK blows the door off them today as they will uptempo but best of luck as I'm not touching this game.

There's a reason UK has a shitload of guys predicted to the NBA. Talent wins out tonight.

[HoulihansTX]

Why are you guys donating to the books?

Wake Forest is horrible, and will not even cover the spread.

Bet the Under if yal done like the kentucky side.

[nobs]

Good Luck, but I just cant see Wake winning this game.

[fsu2010]

I think UK blows the door off them today as they will uptempo but best of luck as I'm not touching this game.

There's a reason UK has a shitload of guys predicted to the NBA. Talent wins out tonight.

How about the 2-3 future NBA players Wake has?

[HoulihansTX]

This is officially a burial thread...

I hate funerals so I'm out.

[tmorton]

I know UK is young and at times show that. I just don't think Wake should even be playing in this tourny with V-tech getting fuked! UK will show them that tonight!

[fsu2010]

This is officially a burial thread...

I hate funerals so I'm out.

I would hardly call this bet a donation. I usually agree with what you have to say, but I think you're dead wrong here brosef.

[maseda17]

Not a ML that I am drawn to myself. I may put the big Units on K-State ML at -185, I think it is safe money.

[fsu2010]

Not a ML that I am drawn to myself. I may put the big Units on K-State ML at -185, I think it is safe money.

Dude, this is quite possibly the worst value of the day. Please don't take this line. You're giving up SO MUCH expected value. Like seriously, horrific line.

[bozeman]

No way man, I don't believe in Wake as well. Kentucky is a definite champion candidate, Wake sucks when making 3pts, so how they gonna chase if they'll be behind in the game??? And they will.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Wake has more quality wins than UK this year. Points are a gift

What quality win??? Richmond at home? Xavier at home? Their best win was Gonzaga on the road. They also got blown out by Duke, Ga Tech, Purdue and Wm and Mary for God sake. They also lost 4 in a row to the likes of UNC, FSU, NCstate and VaTech.

Of course any team can get hot and the other team could get cold but this smells like a 20+ victory if you honestly look at both teams. I can easily see another Duke game for Wake.

and yes Texas has been playing horrible basketball. I live in Texas and have been watching them play all year. Just by Texas taking Wake to OT tells me a lot about Wake. Good luck either way.

[maseda17]

Dude, this is quite possibly the worst value of the day. Please don't take this line. You're giving up SO MUCH expected value. Like seriously, horrific line.

I disagree greatly. I think the 4 point spread line is modest. I have a great amount of certainty in K-State winning outright, so how am I giving up value? It is the appropriate ML given the line.

[fsu2010]

What quality win??? Richmond at home? Xavier at home? Their best win was Gonzaga on the road. They also got blown out by Duke, Ga Tech, Purdue and Wm and Mary for God sake. They also lost 4 in a row to the likes of UNC, FSU, NCstate and VaTech. Of course any team can get hot and the other team could get cold but this smells like a 20+ victory if you honestly look at both teams. I can easily see another Duke game for Wake. and yes Texas has been playing horrible basketball. I live in Texas and have been watching them play all year. Just by Texas taking Wake to OT tells me a lot about Wake. Good luck either way.

20+ victory? Stop talking.

[BettingWizard]

What quality win??? Richmond at home? Xavier at home? Their best win was Gonzaga on the road. They also got blown out by Duke, Ga Tech, Purdue and Wm and Mary for God sake. They also lost 4 in a row to the likes of UNC, FSU, NCstate and VaTech.

Of course any team can get hot and the other team could get cold but this smells like a 20+ victory if you honestly look at both teams. I can easily see another Duke game for Wake.

and yes Texas has been playing horrible basketball. I live in Texas and have been watching them play all year. Just by Texas taking Wake to OT tells me a lot about Wake. Good luck either way.

better wins than uk's resume

wake isnt favored here

[fsu2010]

I disagree greatly. I think the 4 point spread line is modest. I have a great amount of certainty in K-State winning outright, so how am I giving up value? It is the appropriate ML given the line.

How are you giving up value? At absolute worst, BYU is 40% to win this game. So if at best KState is 60% to win, you would need to get them at -150 to have neutral EV. You're getting them at much worse. You're next comment is going to be "but BYU isn't 40% to win...". My response to that is LOL

[maseda17]

Ok you can lay your 50 bucks on Wake ML, throw a grand on K-State ML and we'll see who is happier at night's end.

[fsu2010]

Ok you can lay your 50 bucks on Wake ML, throw a grand on K-State ML and we'll see who is happier at night's end.

Sure dude, because you know me and you know my bet sizes. Throw a grand on KState, actually why not throw more on it? I love getting my money in behind. That's my favorite!

[Mac4Lyfe]

I disagree greatly. I think the 4 point spread line is modest. I have a great amount of certainty in K-State winning outright, so how am I giving up value? It is the appropriate ML given the line.

I think K-state wins convincingly here so I would just lay the points...

[Mac4Lyfe]

20+ victory? Stop talking.

I'll bet you your 3 to my 1 that UK wins by 20 or more.

[fsu2010]

I'll bet you your 3 to my 1 that UK wins by 20 or more.

I'd have to do the math, but I think laying you +300 here is -EV, so I'm going to have to decline. I'll just stick with Wake winning this game 25% of the time and be happy.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I'd have to do the math, but I think laying you +300 here is -EV, so I'm going to have to decline. I'll just stick with Wake winning this game 25% of the time and be happy.

On a 20 point spread...

[fsu2010]

It's the same as taking a 10 point parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

I can see taking it, but I've never been one who gets caught up with "value" - I take picks that I think will win, not because it is "value." That's just my style and obviously others have theirs. And there should be no argument, Texas does suck.


No team did less with more than the Longhorns and their "great" coach Rick Barnes. Again, good luck with Wake as I have no rooting interest in this game ... I simply don't see it is a good match-up for Wake and I think a lot of people are anti-Kentucky because of the cocky attitude associated with the fishies and Calipari. It's a lot like the Fab 5 back in the day, they had swagger and pissed a lot of people off just with their style ... but they were winners, much like Kentucky has done so far. I think a team like Cornell has a better shot than Wake personally in this part of the bracket.

[pronk]

Wake Forest Tonight!! TONS of CRAP.

[Kemalettin]

picked Over in this game