New Mexico Lobos the three-seed underdogs to Washington Huskies
Expected to be at home watching this tournament on TV just a few weeks ago, the Washington Huskies are now playing the New Mexico Lobos for a Sweet 16 trip to Syracuse.
Parity, as defined by my pal Merriam-Webster, is "the quality of state of being equal or equivalent." Parity, as defined by oddsmakers setting college basketball lines, is an 11-seed being a 1 ½-point favorite over a three-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
That's the case for Saturday's East Regional battle between the No. 11 Washington Huskies and No. 3 New Mexico Lobos. And while spreads for gambling purposes don't always tell you a lot about the expected outcome of a contest, in this case it does say a lot about how much 'close-dancing' is going on at this year's Hardwood Ball.
A few teams – Kansas and Kentucky jump out at me – have the talent and have performed consistently enough to rate as solid bets to advance through this tourney. But for every Kansas or Kentucky, there are 12-13 schools living on the hope of one miracle run. Take Washington (25-9 SU, 15-18 ATS), for example.
By all rights the Huskies shouldn't even be in the tournament much less playing for a spot in the Sweet 16. Washington went through its non-con slate at 9-2, with the losses to a decent Texas Tech on the road and thank-you-for-playing-Don-Pardo-tell-'em-about-our-parting-gifts Georgetown on a neutral court in Anaheim. The Huskies did pick up a good win over Texas A&M, but in a game that was tempered by the Aggies' loss of their top player Derrick Roland to a nasty leg break.
Lorenzo Romar's guys then forgot how to win, especially on the Pacific-10 highway. Eight games into the conference slate, Washington was 3-5 in Pac-10 action. And then there was the defeat at home to USC on Feb. 18.
Installed as nine-point favorites, the Huskies dropped behind early and ran out of time with a rally to fall to the Trojans, 67-64. At 17-9 overall, and 7-7 in a weak conference at that point, the NIT didn't even look very promising for Washington.
There have been no losses since, however, with the Huskies leaving the regular season on a 4-0 run before winning three straight to take the conference tourney and opening March Madness on Thursday with an 80-78 triumph over sixth-seeded Marquette.
The Huskies did have enough to rally against the Golden Eagles. Down by 15 with about 13:30 left to play, and with a huge crowd at HP Pavilion behind them, Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas led the surge to give the Huskies the win as one-point 'dogs.
New Mexico meanwhile was given all it could handle by Montana on Thursday. The 14th-seeded Grizzlies took a one-point lead into intermission with their big man in the center, Brian Qvale, having the game of his life. The 6-foot-11 junior scored a career-high 26 on 12-of-16 shooting and grabbed 13 rebounds along the way.
Qvale's effort might have been enough for the upset if not for the 1-of-12 shooting afternoon by the Grizzlies' top scorer, Anthony Johnson. The Lobos avoided first-round embarrassment to get past Montana, 62-57, as nine-point favorites.
New Mexico scored on just 5-of-20 from beyond the arc in the game. And while they're not a great free-throw shooting team on the year, missing 10 of their 23 charity shots was below par and part of the reason those holding Lobos wagers failed to cash.
New Mexico won't have to contend with a big wall in the middle like Montana's Qvale. But the Lobos are going to have to shoot much better from everywhere on the court if they're to live up to the brash pre-tourney predictions made by Darington Hobson. The crowd should be very pro-Washington, and several are likely to remind Hobson about his Elite Eight forecast if he and the Lobos get off to a slow start.
There is one previous meeting between the two schools, for what it's worth. Washington topped New Mexico, 81-71, in Dec. 2005 at the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim. The Lobos did cover as 14-point underdogs, though they never were in the game that went 'over.'
The oddsmakers seem to think the Lobos and Huskies will each find the net with great frequency. The total has been set at 150 ½. The 'over' cashed at a 16-13 clip in Washington games, 3-2 in the last five. New Mexico trended 'under' on the season at 16-12, but made 'over' bettors happy in five straight before staying low in the tournament opener.
Expected to be at home watching this tournament on TV just a few weeks ago, the Washington Huskies are now playing the New Mexico Lobos for a Sweet 16 trip to Syracuse.
Parity, as defined by my pal Merriam-Webster, is "the quality of state of being equal or equivalent." Parity, as defined by oddsmakers setting college basketball lines, is an 11-seed being a 1 ½-point favorite over a three-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
That's the case for Saturday's East Regional battle between the No. 11 Washington Huskies and No. 3 New Mexico Lobos. And while spreads for gambling purposes don't always tell you a lot about the expected outcome of a contest, in this case it does say a lot about how much 'close-dancing' is going on at this year's Hardwood Ball.
A few teams – Kansas and Kentucky jump out at me – have the talent and have performed consistently enough to rate as solid bets to advance through this tourney. But for every Kansas or Kentucky, there are 12-13 schools living on the hope of one miracle run. Take Washington (25-9 SU, 15-18 ATS), for example.
By all rights the Huskies shouldn't even be in the tournament much less playing for a spot in the Sweet 16. Washington went through its non-con slate at 9-2, with the losses to a decent Texas Tech on the road and thank-you-for-playing-Don-Pardo-tell-'em-about-our-parting-gifts Georgetown on a neutral court in Anaheim. The Huskies did pick up a good win over Texas A&M, but in a game that was tempered by the Aggies' loss of their top player Derrick Roland to a nasty leg break.
Lorenzo Romar's guys then forgot how to win, especially on the Pacific-10 highway. Eight games into the conference slate, Washington was 3-5 in Pac-10 action. And then there was the defeat at home to USC on Feb. 18.
Installed as nine-point favorites, the Huskies dropped behind early and ran out of time with a rally to fall to the Trojans, 67-64. At 17-9 overall, and 7-7 in a weak conference at that point, the NIT didn't even look very promising for Washington.
There have been no losses since, however, with the Huskies leaving the regular season on a 4-0 run before winning three straight to take the conference tourney and opening March Madness on Thursday with an 80-78 triumph over sixth-seeded Marquette.
The Huskies did have enough to rally against the Golden Eagles. Down by 15 with about 13:30 left to play, and with a huge crowd at HP Pavilion behind them, Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas led the surge to give the Huskies the win as one-point 'dogs.
New Mexico meanwhile was given all it could handle by Montana on Thursday. The 14th-seeded Grizzlies took a one-point lead into intermission with their big man in the center, Brian Qvale, having the game of his life. The 6-foot-11 junior scored a career-high 26 on 12-of-16 shooting and grabbed 13 rebounds along the way.
Qvale's effort might have been enough for the upset if not for the 1-of-12 shooting afternoon by the Grizzlies' top scorer, Anthony Johnson. The Lobos avoided first-round embarrassment to get past Montana, 62-57, as nine-point favorites.
New Mexico scored on just 5-of-20 from beyond the arc in the game. And while they're not a great free-throw shooting team on the year, missing 10 of their 23 charity shots was below par and part of the reason those holding Lobos wagers failed to cash.
New Mexico won't have to contend with a big wall in the middle like Montana's Qvale. But the Lobos are going to have to shoot much better from everywhere on the court if they're to live up to the brash pre-tourney predictions made by Darington Hobson. The crowd should be very pro-Washington, and several are likely to remind Hobson about his Elite Eight forecast if he and the Lobos get off to a slow start.
There is one previous meeting between the two schools, for what it's worth. Washington topped New Mexico, 81-71, in Dec. 2005 at the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim. The Lobos did cover as 14-point underdogs, though they never were in the game that went 'over.'
The oddsmakers seem to think the Lobos and Huskies will each find the net with great frequency. The total has been set at 150 ½. The 'over' cashed at a 16-13 clip in Washington games, 3-2 in the last five. New Mexico trended 'under' on the season at 16-12, but made 'over' bettors happy in five straight before staying low in the tournament opener.
