hoopsworld analysis

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 11:14 AM

Clemson Tigers - Won only two conference road games, but they can be as good as anyone in stretches. Have a senior in Trevor Booker who can be the go-to guy in a close one.
Stat Fact: 8th in the nation in steals.

Moreau: If they turn you over, then you are in a for a long night. If you can score against their press and execute in the half-court, their athleticism can be negated and weaknesses exposed inside.
Barto: They always find a way to make the game fun to watch. Best spurt scoring team in the land next to Oklahoma State. A terrible turnover ratio and bad free throw shooting could take the wind out of their sails in the tournament. They are one of the few teams who can limit high-scoring wing players with their length, athleticism and bench.

Missouri Tigers - They can create havoc with their frenetic pressure and furious pace, but the Tigers have struggled against the better teams when the game becomes a slower, half-court affair - which is what NCAA tourney games tend to become. If your guards can't handle pressure, then you don't want to see these guys.
Stat Fact: Lead the nation in steals and are #2 nationally in turnover margin.

Moreau: Utter mayhem and complete chaos is what they try to produce with their pressing and trapping defense. Add just a little structure and organization, limit the pace, and the Tigers don't have much of a counter punch.
Barto: It's tough to replicate in practice the way they play. If they can wing the first game, they will be very tough to prepare for in Game 2. Must get to the foul line and make defensive plays at the 92-foot mark to hang with the big boys.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 11:16 AM

Georgia Tech Yellowjackets - Underachieved during the regular season with three potential first-round NBA draft picks, but made a run in the ACC tourney to show everyone what could be. Derrick Favors is a force inside and Tech can beat anyone if point guard Iman Shumpert maintains his high level of play.
Stat Fact: #7 nationally in defensive field-goal percentage

Moreau: As big and as athletic a team as there is in the field, they have struggled with inconsistent guard play and spotty shooting. If Shumpert leads, his talented teammates will follow and he can take the Jackets into the Sweet Sixteen.
Barto: Favors and Shumpert are future NBA all-stars in my book, so that will give them a chance. They were very young but proved in the ACC tourney they have started figuring things out. Coach Paul Hewitt would be wise to make sure Favors touches the ball every trip down the floor.

Oklahoma State Cowboys - Big 12 Player of the Year and potential NBA first-round draft pick James Anderson makes the Cowboys a threat to take out anyone, as evidenced by his 27 points in a win over Kansas. It's a guard-oriented attack with good athletes all around - the perfect team to be the thorn in the side of a higher seed.
Stat Fact: James Anderson is the nation's 4th leading scorer at 22.4 ppg.

Moreau: If Anderson needs lots of shots to get his points, the Cowboys will be out early. His efficiency and ability to pick his spots will be much more important than his totals.
Barto: This is a scary team when they are controlling the tempo and stretching the floor. They may have the best ball movement and shot hunters in college basketball. Their struggles in the half-court improved as front court players matured during the year. A weak bench and James Anderson's volume shooting can allow for too many easy baskets for opponents.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 11:21 AM

Cornell Big Red - One of the favorites to be a Cinderella, Cornell is more than just a cerebral champ from the Ivy League. They have scoring and talent at guard, forward and center, and three-point shooting from all over the floor. The five-point loss at Kansas got the attention of bracketologists looking for early upset possibilities.
Stat Fact: #1 in the nation in three-point shooting percentage at 43.4. Ryan Whittman is tied with New Mexico State's Gibson for three-pointers made per game.

Moreau: We'll find out quickly if they can repeat the Kansas formula, or if the Jayhawks just had a bad shooting night. Cornell has given up lots of points in losses to bigger schools, but also proved they can rebound with the big boys. They don't have to shoot the lights out to win, but they can't have 15+ turnovers and expect to advance.
Barto: The Kansas game and their elite shooters have bracketologists nationwide penciling them into round two. They did play Penn State-Behrend this year as well as other weak teams in the Ivy. Those should have been 60-point wins. If they have a Kansas-like game against a down team the stars could align all the way to the second round.

Temple Owls - With an impressive 14-2 league record and a win over tournament-bound Richmond in the A-10 championship game, the Owls have good guard play and inside presence to matchup with just about anyone. With Juan Fernandez creating and Lavoy Allen scoring inside, Temple has that perimeter/post combination that can threaten teams without good defensive balance.
Stat Fact: #4 nationally in scoring defense, #4 in three-point percentage defense, and 6th in the nation in defensive field-goal percentage.

Moreau: They defend with great consistency on every possession and have creators who can get their own shots. The game will be played at their tempo and they can go inside, outside or off the dribble for a big bucket.
Barto: The A-10 was the most underrated conference in the country. Temple dominated it and dominates tempo. Their C game will be enough to advance. Their A game could have them frustrating the favorites into early April. The Owls are tough to prepare for and even tougher if shooters aren't hitting.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 11:43 AM

Purdue Boilermakers - A potential 1 or 2 seed until the loss of leading scorer Robbie Hummel. It has exposed their inability to score, as they have been held in the 40's in their last two losses. Guard E'Twaun Moore and big man JaJuan Johnson will have to continue to raise their offensive games if the Boilermakers want to survive the first weekend.
Stat Fact: #4 in the nation in turnover margin, #2 in the Big Ten in free throw percentage, #2 in scoring defense, and 3rd in the league in defensive field-goal percentage.

Moreau: They've played without Hummel long enough to have adjusted their attack, but their lack of three-point shooting could sink them. If they can't get easy baskets off their defense, they have to shoot it much better from three to win.

Barto: They will have to score by committee. Two weeks is not enough time to develop the synergy to replace Hummel, unless you are coached by Matt Painter. This team has too much competitive character not to have a little known player step into the spotlight.

Siena Saints - This is a team that has won NCAA Tournament

games the last few years, and Coach Fran McCaffery has another group primed to wreck brackets from coast to coast. A balanced scoring team of juniors and seniors, they have three double-figure scorers around double-double post player Ryan Rossiter. A team to consider as an upset special.

Stat Fact: Commits the fewest number of fouls per game of any team in the nation. Ronald Moore is the nation's leading assist man at 7.8 per game, and Ryan Rossiter is #7 in rebounding.

Moreau: Fran McCaffery knows how to get a team to the tournament, and how to win. First saw him take Lehigh and the P's and Q's to the tourney back in the late 80's. He must have been about 12.

Barto: Four of six losses came against tournament teams. Active and aggressive in the full court is their moneymaker defensively and leads to lots of easy baskets. They struggled with tough physical teams with good point guards in St. John's and Temple. Coaching gives them a shot to advance again this year but must have outstanding performances on the offensive end.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 11:48 AM

Pittsburgh Panthers - The Panthers slid off the radar a little, but don't forget they finished in a three-way tie for third with West Virginia and Villanova in the Big East - and they beat both of them as well as Syracuse in the regular season. The guards do all the scoring and the inside guys provide the punch. To beat Pitt, you have to win the fight, and it won't be won easily.
Stat Fact: Led the Big East in scoring defense and #2 in the league in defending the three-point shot.

Moreau: Pitt will grind it out on offense, and although their defense is solid, they don't create a lot of turnovers. Without some easy baskets the pressure will mount on the guards to create offense.

Barto: Young guards with little tournament experience cost them in the Big East Tourney. Jaime Dixon is the best in the business at proving the doubters wrong. Mid-range offense and inside players finishing at the rim have been suspect all year.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies - Lost to Kansas by 40 and Michigan State and Syracuse by 30. But, went 20-1 down the stretch to win the regular season and tournament champhionship in the Horizon League. 6-11 Keith Benson gives you 17 and 11 inside. He must get help from the others.
Stat Fact: Jonathan Jones is #3 nationally in assists and Larry Wright is #3 in free throw percentage.

Moreau: They've only lost once since Christmas. Benson will be the focal point of any defense, so Jones must distribute and Derick Nelson
and Wright have to be ready to take more shots and knock down big ones. Can't win this weekend without a good percentage from behind the arc.

Barto: Three years straight of having the conference Player of the Year is a great media story. A thin skilled frontline will hurt them, but the experience will allow them to stay around longer than many expect.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 11:51 AM

Wisconsin Badgers - Only one team has scored over 60 points vs. the Badgers in the last 10 games. They will keep games close in a grinding, halfcourt style - perfect for upsets and advancement in the tournament.
Stat Fact: Lead the nation in fewest turnovers per game, averaging only nine per outing. Defensively they are #1 in the country in scoring defense.

Moreau: They will make you play their style, and won't allow you to speed them up or turn them over. Impatient teams are in trouble against the Badgers.

Barto: Preparing for their swing offense is not easy, especially in the second game. Shooting, turnovers, and toughness will be the focus since the Big 10 was so focused on the NFL combine in recent months.

Wofford Terriers - Went 19-1 in their last 20 games and won the Southern Conference tournament.

Lost by three to Pitt and by 12 to Michigan State, so they know they can play with those higher seeds. Forward Noah Dahlman is their only double-figure scorer, and has scored in double-figures in every game this year. Had 20 against Pitt and 19 against Michigan State.

Stat Fact: Noah Dahlman is ranked #9 nationally in field-goal percentage

Moreau: It will take a perfect game for them to advance, but they have a formula to work from after playing some good teams tough. A few made shots from unlikely candidates and the upset is on.

Barto: The frontline scoring was impressive all year in a league that was way down. In order to make things interesting they will have to rely on isolation offense and hope the opponent has a brutal day on the offensive end.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 11:54 AM

Texas A&M Aggies - Finished in the three-way tie for second in the Big 12 and like Baylor didn't get the publicity of Kansas State, probably because they got blown out by the Wildcats. But, A&M's only losses, in and out of conference, were to NCAA tournament teams, so they've seen everything they could face this weekend.

Stat Fact: Ranked #2 in Big 12 in scoring defense, #11 in scoring offense.

Moreau: If Donald Sloan isn't scoring, they will struggle to find points elsewhere. Even if he does, the supporting cast must finish plays and knock down open shots. They lose when they score in the 60s.

Barto: Following the Michigan St./Pitt philosophy as they continue to be the team no one wants to play. They have kept games close with tremendous attention to detail on both ends. A second go-to scorer must emerge for a deep run in what will likely be Turgeon's last dance as an Aggie.

Utah State Aggies - The WAC wasn't as strong a league this year, but Utah State won 17 in a row before dropping the conference final to New Mexico State.
Stat Fact: #2 nationally in three-point percentage, #5 in free throw percentage, #6 in fewest turnovers per game, #7 in scoring margin and #8 in field-goal percentage. Defensively, #10 in scoring defense.

Moreau: They shoot it well and have lots of guys contribute offensively. They will have to be efficient against more length, physicality and athleticism of a higher seed. A hot shooting night or a close game won at the free throw line could happen.

Barto: A very friendly late season schedule inflated their record. They know what a good shot is and have enough sets to isolate weak defensive players on every possession. When they get the shots they want and stay out of foul trouble watch out, but will a different physicality and speed throw them off course early?

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 01:11 PM

Gonzaga Bulldogs - A perennial tournament team for a decade, this team isn't a feared giant killer as much as a respected middle of the pack seed who plays numerous out of conference games against good opponents in preparation for their tournament run. Experience and balanced, efficient scoring make them formidable.

Stat Fact: #5 nationally in field-goal percentage

Moreau: They shoot well and run their offense with great efficiency, as you would expect. But, they also rebound and block shots well on the defensive end. Their Achilles' heel in the tournament could be their surprisingly poor foul shooting.

Barto: Big, strong smart guards and active, finishing front line players allow them to play with anyone in the half-court. Mismatches exist at nearly every position. They may struggle with a smaller, quicker team or rugged, punch-you-in-the-face front lines. They always get mis-classified as a mid-major. Their opponents know better.

Florida State Seminoles - Nation's stingiest defense has a huge front line, but struggles on offense without a go-to guy. They can be dominant defensively, which suggests they can stay in any game. ACC Defensive Player of the Year Chris Singleton may have to do just as much on the offensive end for the Noles to advance.

Stat Fact: Nation's #1 field-goal percentage defense and 10th-best shot blocking team.

Moreau: Their defense can be stifling at times and around the basket there can be a forest of shot blocking hands. Offensively they can pound you inside and, at times, have shot very well from the perimeter. They have struggled with full-court pressure, turnovers and missed free throws. If the guards are attacking and knocking down threes, they can beat anyone in the field.

Barto: If they can score, they can win. Great team when they have time to prepare and are making contested shots. Not so fun to watch as they try to get baskets against good defensive teams. If they handle pressure and a scorer emerges, they can wear people out being one of the biggest teams in the country.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 01:16 PM

Michigan State Spartans - Junior Kalin Lucas, a potential first-round NBA draft pick, leads a veteran, tournament tested team. Tom Izzo's teams are built for March, with tough half-court defense and precision execution. Don't sleep on the Spartans.

Stat Fact: #7 nationally in assists per game and the nation's leader in rebound margin.

Moreau: Maybe no team is more prepared for the madness of March than Michigan State. The coaching staff knows the rhythm and flow of the tournament, and the players have been there before. If it's execution that is needed, this is the team that can get it done.

Barto: Nobody is better at re-emerging on top by going blue collar and back to the basics. They have some adversity, but will screen harder, take more charges, dive further and respond to the challenge. The distractions and bad matchups created some late season questions, so expect some early haymakers and Izzo to have something up his sleeve.

New Mexico State Aggies - Automatic bid from the WAC as the tournament champions, they have two wins over Utah State and a win over BYU and UTEP. The guards lead the way, but everybody scores on this team.

Stat Fact: Jonathan Gibson is tied for 9th nationally in three-pointers made per game.

Moreau: Five double-figure scorers make them dangerous, and get into a shootout with them at your own peril. If the game becomes more half-court and methodical, the guards must get the best shot available - not the first one.

Barto: Troy Gillenwater became eligible in January and the team went 11-3. The three losses were games they had a chance to win and were on the road. Only three teams held them under 70 points all year which means they could get some of the higher seeds in foul trouble early.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 01:20 PM

Duke Blue Devils – Not looked at as some Duke teams of the past, but have handled their business as the best team in the ACC. Have a Big 3 in Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith who average 52 points between them, but no one else averages more than six. Had wins over UConn, Gonzaga and Iowa State on neutral courts in specific preparation for the tourney atmosphere.

Stat Fact: The Devils are #3 in scoring margin and 8th nationally in free throw percentage. Duke is #2 in the nation at defending the three-point shot.

Moreau: They have gotten such great play from their Big 3 all season. The big concern for them avoiding trouble is getting solid play from the supporting cast. They will need double figures from someone else, and the role players must finish plays when defenses are focused on the big guns.

Barto: Depth is a concern for this team inside. They are hitting on all cylinders right now, so there could be a valley game cycling itself into the rotation. Singler's and Scheyer's lack of athleticism will become more of an issue against the better teams.

Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions - Winners of the SWAC and pretty impressive in their win over Winthrop in the play in game. Started the season 0-11 by playing a murderer's row road schedule against five NCAA tournament teams, keeping it under 20 in all.

Stat Fact: #1 in the SWAC in rebounding and #2 in the league in field-goal percentage

Moreau: They were never a threat to win their road games against bigger schools and don't shoot the three well enough to be much of an upset threat. Turnovers and lack of scoring punch will keep them from springing an upset.

Barto: This athletic director will get a big time job. Eleven tough games to start the year and they win the play-in game. The price per plate at the year-end banquet should be slightly increased.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 01:57 PM

Syracuse Orange - They were the best team in arguably the best league all year. Six players average between eight and 16 points - balance all around. No Carmelo, but Wes Johnson leads a well-meshed bunch of good players. No shame in losing to Georgetown in the Big East tourney.

Stat Fact: Syracuse leads the nation in offensive field-goal percentage, rank #2 in assists per game, #6 in points per game, and 6th in scoring margin. Defensively they are 5th nationally in steals and #7 in blocked shots.

Moreau: I don't think their last two losses are of big concern, as they played at such a high level all year. But, losing does create doubt, and it's important for Syracuse to come roaring out of the gates in their first game.

Barto: Their frontline must rebound and finish while matching the intensity of other physical frontlines. Shooter-friendly teams and physical guards will give them problems throughout.

Vermont Catamounts - Coach Mike Lonergan won a Division III National Championship with Catholic University and will have the Catamounts primed and ready. Forward Marquis Blakely averages 17 and 9, and is a good enough athlete to lead an upset bid. Could provide the biggest scare of any 15-16 seed.

Stat Fact: #1 in the America East in field-goal percentage and blocked shots.

Moreau: I'm as miffed as Mike Lonergan as to Vermont's #16 seed. However, if anyone can use that to his advantage and formulate a game plan for an historic upset, it's this coach. Anyone for the first ever #16 defeats #1? Don't let the 41-point loss at Providence fool you.

Barto: Blakley is a freak and has a million dollar smile to go with it. It will be great to see the green shirts mixed into the crowd. Will need some heroics and luck to stay around past halftime.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 02:02 PM

Ohio State Buckeyes - Led by National Player of Year candidate Evan Turner, he can win any game by himself - doing it with his shooting, penetration, or around the basket. But his teammates struggled without him during his mid-season back injury, so he must get consistent help with defenses geared to stop him.

Stat Fact: The Buckeyes are #5 nationally in offensive field goal percentage and #10 in scoring margin.

Moreau: As much attention as Evan Turner gets, guards William Buford and Jon Deibler have been outstanding in their big wins. If they get that good guard play, they can survive a night when Turner isn't superman.

Barto: This team can morph itself to expose any team. They are very good after halftime and an excellent late-game team. Turner has been a nightmare to guard, but played in a league that has no matchups for him. They must avoid foul trouble.

UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos - Won the Big West regular season and tournament championsships, going 14-2 down the stretch and winning some nail-biters along the way. Didn't play much of a non-conference schedule.Conference Player of the Year Orlando Johnson leads the way from the guard spot.

Stat Fact: #1 in the Big West in offensive and defensive three-point percentage.

Moreau: They got stage fright against some bigger name teams early in the year, but the Gauchos are capable of putting fear into a higher seed with hot early shooting. They will need all the karma they can get to pull off the upset.

Barto: UCSB did a great job of frustrating opponents in their conference. I do not see them backing down, but it could get ugly quick as they will have trouble moving the ball and getting shots this week.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 04:35 PM

Maryland Terrapins - ACC player of the year Greivis Vasquez can take over a game and this gritty Maryland team is the epitome of a classic Gary Williams-coached Terp team: a little undersized and overlooked, but very dangerous. This team has thrived in the close, pressure-packed, big-game moments this year.

Stat Fact: #10 in the nation in assists per game as a team, Greivis Vasquez is #4 in the nation in assists.

Moreau: Not sure they get the respect they deserve. This is a tough team who can execute in the halfcourt, get tough stops, and Vasquez can get them the big baskets down the stretch. Hayes can break your back with his three-point shooting. The lack of size inside could be a problem if they go deep.

Barto: Great against athletic teams, but struggle against physical, tough teams. Vasquez has major media attention written all over him. The baseline flex action and physical screening will be tough to guard on one day's rest and preparation. Williams and Vasquez have the chip on the shoulder mentality they bring to every game.

Houston Cougars - Surprise winner of the Conference USAtournament, which screwed up many at-large hopes. But it does give us a chance to watch 25-point per game scorer Aubrey Coleman. Expect trademark pressing and trapping from Tom Penders' bunch.

Stat Fact: #1 nationally in turnover margin and #7 in nation in steals. Aubrey Coleman is the nation's leading scorer at 25.9 ppg, and is ranked 7th in steals per game.

Moreau: Houston's helter-skelter D and inefficient offense won't create enough havoc against good, disciplined conference champions and higher seeds. Has it really been over 25 years since Phi Slamma Jamma? Think any of them still can?

Barto: Love him or hate him, Tom Penders is going out with a bang. He is one of the sideline stompers and New York coaches that allows his kids to play. Coleman can get hot and keep them competitive with any team in the country. Style of play is different and nearly impossible to prepare for. If the step-back threes are falling, this could be the Cinderella story of Weekend 1.

ShivaBowl · 03-19-10, 05:17 PM

California Golden Bears -After listening to the national media all year bash the Pac-10 for being weak, Cal can carry the banner for their disrespected league. They have enough talent and are well coached by tournament veteran Mike Montgomery, so don't discount that in the Bears possibly winning a game or two.

Stat Fact: Jamel Boykin is #2 nationally in field-goal percentage, Jerome Randle is the nation's #2 free throw shooter.

Moreau: Cal led the Pac-10 in field-goal percentage, three-point shooting percentage, and free throw percentage. They can score in every way, and are more solid defensively and on the boards than they get credit for. Mike Montgomery can get them to the Sweet Sixteen.

Barto: As well as they shoot, their three-point shooting abandoned them in their losses. Turnover ratio is a red flag. Interior scoring gets the yellow flag. Great coaching paired with experience and a fierce, competitive starting lineup puts them in Sweet Sixteen contention. Valuing every possession and avoiding foul trouble could be a green light to Indy.

Louisville Cardinals - Came on strong in the mid to late part of the year, have experience from last year's Final Four and a national championshipcoach. They could be lying in the weeds as a team who could create some problems for higher seeded teams who haven't been in the spotlight.

Stat Fact: #3 in Big East in offensive rebounding, #14 on the defensive boards.

Moreau: They don't do anything great which is why they finished in the middle of the Big East pack, but they do move the ball inside and out offensively and can get some steals on the defensive end. They've had some bad losses in which they have struggled to score, so they will be begging for some big offensive games from someone other than Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa.

Barto: They go as far as Sosa and Samuels take them. If they play inside-out and set their combination defenses, watch out. If Sosa goes rogue and tries to set the NCAA tournament step-back threes attempted record, things could get ugly.