Chad Millman brings us another great article. It can be found on ESPN.com under "wise guys bracket breakdonw Part I and II" but you have to have ESPN Insider to access. I know a lot of people are interested in this type of stuff so here it goes.
Alan Boston:
Duke/Ark PB
"I think this Duke team is better suited for the NCAA tourney than prior Duke teams. It has a better inside game and a smidgen more depth, so it will not get worn out as quickly as prior Duke teams. Of course, Coach K does not use his bench enough during the year. So every Duke team wears out a little at the end of the year. Honestly, not only do I think he is a terrible X's and O's guy, but he is a terrible manager of players' energies, too. But whatever. In this game, I made Duke 25, and I like Duke minus-21.5."
Louisville/Cal
"I rated the game even, and right now that's where it is, so I won't be betting it. I think oftentimes these first-round games are about coaching and having seniors, and Cal is well-coached and is senior-dominated. So if you put a gun to my head, I would take the Bears to beat Louisville. I think this Louisville team is capable of greatness, but I don't trust Pitino."
A&M/Utah St
"Utah State is extremely difficult to prepare for, throws several defenses at you, almost never takes a bad shot and defends technically perfect. I love Stew Morrill, the Utah State coach. But [Texas A&M coach] Mark Turgeon is great, too. I think the committee did what it could to screw the mid-major. I made the game A&M 1.5, and both teams are eerily similar. I think Utah State in a minor upset will win this game."
Purdue/Siena
"I think Purdue minus-4 is easily the best bet in the tourney and one of the best bets I've seen since I've been gambling. A team that was a threat to win the national title against a MAAC team which has played on the road at Butler, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa and been blown out in all three. It has shown no ability to matchup with athletically superior teams. Purdue, meanwhile, was going to win the whole thing three weeks ago. They have had time to gather themselves since Hummel's injury and say, 'Let's go give this our best shot.' Purdue's best shot is better than anything Siena can dream of. I will have a big bet on this game."
ODU/ND
"Another bet I made early at ODU plus-3.5. I made the game pick. And talk about undeserved seeding. Notre Dame wasn't in the tourney two weeks ago, and now it is a sixth seed? It boggles my mind: The Irish are no better than a 12 or 11; UTEP would be favored over this team. Utah State would be pick. Three weeks ago, I think ODU would have been favored, too. I don't respect Notre Dame's recent run. I think it put so much into getting in that it is mission accomplished. But ODU has been in for a while, and I think it will have better focus."
Baylor/Sam Hous
"No doubt that this Baylor team has had a terrific year. All the good recruiting Scott Drew has done is starting to show. What his team has lacked in the past is chemistry, but Tweety Carter at point has allowed this team to really flow. But I think this is a team that has overachieved a lot, too, and Sam Houston is very talented. It almost won in Kentucky to start the year and crushed Auburn at Auburn. I made it 10.5. I won't bet it, but I think Baylor will advance."
SMC/Richmond
"I have Saint Mary's a 1.5-point favorite, and it opened at Saint Mary's plus-2, so I made a big bet on Saint Mary's at that number. Although Richmond plays that Princeton offense which can give teams trouble that haven't seen it, Saint Mary's has been in the tourney before and won't be fazed. The way it ran Gonzaga out of the gym was no fluke. Its guard plays is terrific, and Randy Bennett is a good-enough coach that he will have his team ready. I think it will be a great game, a close game, but I have a big bet on Saint Mary's and think it will advance."
Nova/Bobby Morris
"I leaned to Robert Morris point-spread wise. I made the game 16.5, a little lower than where it opened. I think the Robert Morris coach is headed for a bigger job, and in these games you always have to be wary of the huge spread, especially when it's against a team that struggled down the stretch. Villanova will advance, however."
Other regions coming shortly.
Alan Boston:
Duke/Ark PB
"I think this Duke team is better suited for the NCAA tourney than prior Duke teams. It has a better inside game and a smidgen more depth, so it will not get worn out as quickly as prior Duke teams. Of course, Coach K does not use his bench enough during the year. So every Duke team wears out a little at the end of the year. Honestly, not only do I think he is a terrible X's and O's guy, but he is a terrible manager of players' energies, too. But whatever. In this game, I made Duke 25, and I like Duke minus-21.5."
Louisville/Cal
"I rated the game even, and right now that's where it is, so I won't be betting it. I think oftentimes these first-round games are about coaching and having seniors, and Cal is well-coached and is senior-dominated. So if you put a gun to my head, I would take the Bears to beat Louisville. I think this Louisville team is capable of greatness, but I don't trust Pitino."
A&M/Utah St
"Utah State is extremely difficult to prepare for, throws several defenses at you, almost never takes a bad shot and defends technically perfect. I love Stew Morrill, the Utah State coach. But [Texas A&M coach] Mark Turgeon is great, too. I think the committee did what it could to screw the mid-major. I made the game A&M 1.5, and both teams are eerily similar. I think Utah State in a minor upset will win this game."
Purdue/Siena
"I think Purdue minus-4 is easily the best bet in the tourney and one of the best bets I've seen since I've been gambling. A team that was a threat to win the national title against a MAAC team which has played on the road at Butler, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa and been blown out in all three. It has shown no ability to matchup with athletically superior teams. Purdue, meanwhile, was going to win the whole thing three weeks ago. They have had time to gather themselves since Hummel's injury and say, 'Let's go give this our best shot.' Purdue's best shot is better than anything Siena can dream of. I will have a big bet on this game."
ODU/ND
"Another bet I made early at ODU plus-3.5. I made the game pick. And talk about undeserved seeding. Notre Dame wasn't in the tourney two weeks ago, and now it is a sixth seed? It boggles my mind: The Irish are no better than a 12 or 11; UTEP would be favored over this team. Utah State would be pick. Three weeks ago, I think ODU would have been favored, too. I don't respect Notre Dame's recent run. I think it put so much into getting in that it is mission accomplished. But ODU has been in for a while, and I think it will have better focus."
Baylor/Sam Hous
"No doubt that this Baylor team has had a terrific year. All the good recruiting Scott Drew has done is starting to show. What his team has lacked in the past is chemistry, but Tweety Carter at point has allowed this team to really flow. But I think this is a team that has overachieved a lot, too, and Sam Houston is very talented. It almost won in Kentucky to start the year and crushed Auburn at Auburn. I made it 10.5. I won't bet it, but I think Baylor will advance."
SMC/Richmond
"I have Saint Mary's a 1.5-point favorite, and it opened at Saint Mary's plus-2, so I made a big bet on Saint Mary's at that number. Although Richmond plays that Princeton offense which can give teams trouble that haven't seen it, Saint Mary's has been in the tourney before and won't be fazed. The way it ran Gonzaga out of the gym was no fluke. Its guard plays is terrific, and Randy Bennett is a good-enough coach that he will have his team ready. I think it will be a great game, a close game, but I have a big bet on Saint Mary's and think it will advance."
Nova/Bobby Morris
"I leaned to Robert Morris point-spread wise. I made the game 16.5, a little lower than where it opened. I think the Robert Morris coach is headed for a bigger job, and in these games you always have to be wary of the huge spread, especially when it's against a team that struggled down the stretch. Villanova will advance, however."
Other regions coming shortly.
