Since i dont have a clue, how to cap the dance

[jakeandba]

Since i am a novice, what should i begin to look at.

Guard play over conference?

RPI?

Team def played on neutral or away floor?

Three point def ?

i have no clue?

Style of both teams?

[WileOut]

All of the above and then some. There isn't just one thing that wins or loses a game, all the factors go into the final score.

[suckerforparlays]

First look at the games you really really like you have to break it down slowly. This is a long process if your a serious better.

[jakeandba]

Thanks for the replies....since there are some other factors to consider, can you guide me to consider some other factors..? Thanks

[suckerforparlays]

GUARD PLAY. Look for teams with the toughest strongest fastest guards

[freeVICK]

to be honest there way too many games to cap things like guard play and all that. who am i to judge which guards are better? i think im just gonna watch for rlm. lots of public plays during tourney time and vegas will probably set the traps. just my opinion...

[Gundog]

Also look for teams with upper classman leadership, the deeper you go into the Dance.

[suckerforparlays]

to be honest there way too many games to cap things like guard play and all that. who am i to judge which guards are better? i think im just gonna watch for rlm. lots of public plays during tourney time and vegas will probably set the traps. just my opinion...

If the lines are set and released tonight or tomorrow those ****ers are gonna be bouncing all over the place till game time

[TPowell]

they always are. Bet what you like and try to middle if possible!!!

[Gundog]

to be honest there way too many games to cap things like guard play and all that. who am i to judge which guards are better? i think im just gonna watch for rlm. lots of public plays during tourney time and vegas will probably set the traps. just my opinion...

It's not that hard to judge. One click of the mouse will get you alot of useful information

[freeVICK]

It's not that hard to judge. One click of the mouse will get you alot of useful information

sure you can get offensive stats, but what about defense. all these guards can score, but stats wont tell me if they are shut down defenders

[freeVICK]

lol my friend said to fade all teams with black coaches

[Gundog]

but what about defense. all these guards can score, but stats wont tell me if they are shut down defenders

I agree. But % of team stats help
I would then look at the offensive stats verses the deffensive stats as a team and go from there.

[Gundog]

lol my friend said to fade all teams with black coaches

That's some funny shit there. At least he did not tell you to fade teams with black players.
When i served in the Marine Corp there was no such thing as black or white Marines. It was either Light Green Marines, and Dark Green Marines

[Gundog]

Don’t pick with your heart

If you’re a casual fan, you’ll likely be tempted to make a few picks based on the teams you like. Don’t. You may be cheering for a sentimental favorite, but it’s important to be impartial when you’re making your picks to win your March Madness bracket. This isn’t to say that you shouldn't cheer for one school; the tournament is much more exciting when you live and die with each play of your team, but make sure to keep your heart and your head separate. Too many bettors have seen their predictions go up in smoke because they picked the team they wanted to see win, rather than follow logic and pick the team that was more likely to win. And be careful, because your heart will fool you. You’ll convince yourself that your 16th-ranked team will indeed become the national champion -- dream on, just don’t let that dream be reflected in your March Madness bracket.

Take coaching into account

Turnover in college sportsis faster than in anything else, but that doesn’t mean each team is full of inexperienced rookies. Depending on what a team has accomplished in the last few seasons, its juniors and sophomores may be more experienced and mature than a lot of seniors. In the bright lights and the “lose and you’re going home” format of March Madness, experience is an intangible you can’t ignore, whether it’s among the players on the floor or the man calling the shots. When you’re picking to win your March Madness bracket, look at how many starters on each team played in last year’s tournament. If the answer is most of them, how well did that team do? If it made a good run, those players know what the tournament is like and won’t approach it like deer caught in the headlights. Just as experience matters on the floor, it’s just as crucial on the bench. If it’s a toss-up as to which team to take, look at the head coaches. If you’re putting your money on someone, you’re smarter to take the experienced coach. Look at guys like Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski and North Carolina’s Roy Williams -- they’ve been around, won titles and you know they’ll be cool under pressure. We’re not saying young coaches can’t win, but more often than not, they look like rookies when they go up against modern-day legends.

Remember head-to-head records

The team you’re picking to have a long run in March Madness may have steamrolled most of its opponents all season, but if you see it will face the team it historically has trouble beating, be careful. Head-to-head records count for a lot in sports. If one team’s Kryptonite is a foe it has struggled against in the past -- and it’s likely both teams will square off in the tournament -- we’d put our money on the team that won in the teams’ previous encounter. Confidence means a lot, and if a team can enter a game knowing it has the others' number, you’re more than likely to see it emerge a victor and win your March Madness bracket. Be wary of teams that are historically great in conference, but struggle out of it. The beauty of March Madness is teams get to face all sorts of opponents, and if a club has trouble winning against everyone except for its traditional rivals (those it’s most familiar with), it may struggle in the wide-open NCAA tournament.


Look at historical trends

Some FANS might argue that the past has nothing to do with the present, and while that’s true to a certain point, it’s foolish to ignore NCAA tournament trends when you want to win your March Madness bracket. Keep history in mind when making your picks, and remember that no 16th-ranked team has ever upset a No. 1 team. So, if you’re sure a 16 can cause an upset, just remember it’s got history against it. Likewise, the No. 15 seed has only beaten the No. 2 seed on four occasions, No. 14 has knocked off No. 3 only 15 times, and so on. Be a student of the game and know your history. Picking upsets is what will put you ahead of your coworkers, but don’t make picks that are historically improbable or you’ll end up trailing the pool in a hurry.

pick a pack of pro players

If you’re stuck on a pick, don’t be afraid to reach out for help. Whether you’re asking a buddy whose bracket is a thing of beauty or reading the copious amounts of analyses , it’s OK to get a second opinion. Even if that opinion isn’t in agreement with yours, it will mean you’ll have some critical thinking ahead -- which is never a bad thing. If your friend gives you his answer, quiz him as to why he’s leaning that way. Don’t be afraid to jab back and forth with him in hopes of hammering out what pick is best.

[Tomato]

Ask BigDaddyQH. He's the pro capper here.

[Gundog]

Ask BigDaddyQH. He's the pro capper here.

Yea you would be better off asking that guy.

[suckerforparlays]

I will live and die with Murray State !

[freddues]

Don't play anything in the first round!

Then look for dogs (+7 or higher) with points in the second round who play GREAT DEFENSE. They will all be coming off wins and if you find the right ones--ready to cover the number. This disciplined strategy can get you 70% or higher in the second and third rounds.

GL

[freeVICK]

dude us degens cant not bet the 1st round, you know that LOL. good info, ill be on the look out for that

[jakeandba]

was able to read a great article which gave direction.

the top four seeds in the first round are

15-1 SU

11-5 ATS

now this is going back to last year but will continue to dig. sounds like parley country along with possible ATS betting.

[Q]

I honestly made all my money last year betting first and second2h lines..

[jakeandba]

As an update for 08 tourney: betting top 4 seeds in the first round

ATS
Favs 11-5

SU
fav 14 - 2

[THE PROFIT]

If you’re stuck on a pick, don’t be afraid to reach out for help. Whether you’re asking a buddy whose bracket is a thing of beauty or reading the copious amounts of analyses , it’s OK to get a second opinion. Even if that opinion isn’t in agreement with yours, it will mean you’ll have some critical thinking ahead -- which is never a bad thing. If your friend gives you his answer, quiz him as to why he’s leaning that way. Don’t be afraid to jab back and forth with him in hopes of hammering out what pick is best.

this is gay

may I quiz you? Then jab back & forth.....................with a shank

[jakeandba]

For anyone who wishes to be conservative on betting the Dance, did a quick research on how far the #1's went deep in the tourney,
08
The number 1's won outright
3 rounds
5 rounds
4 rounds
3 rounds
09
The number 1's won
2 rounds
3 rounds
5 rounds
2 rounds
Now if you want to bet conservative, the ML might be inviting.
Now the counted started after the first round, since the ML was a huge giant number.
Anyway do know the ML numbers after the second round but a profit has to be turned. Anyway time to Dance

[BiffTFinancial]

Ask BigDaddyQH. He's the pro capper here.

[jakeandba]

of all this research time out the window for the Dance. As of now, 1 and 3...lucky lucky...ok hopefully the games change in the evening session.


just frustating...oh well still alive and kickn

[thebestthereis]

do what george does, it works i did it before

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY

[jakeandba]

ok that was funny......thanks for the help

[jakeandba]

What a difference a day makes....so far the top 4 seeds have covered 3-1...the tough part is yet to come with the last 4.;...tally ho

[jakeandba]

ok fightn and starting to see the tide turn....Duke covers 4-1 with 3 to go

[G's pks]

What a difference a day makes....so far the top 4 seeds have covered 3-1...the tough part is yet to come with the last 4.;...tally ho

A day makes a big difference... I chased today for the first time this year to make up for losses on Texas and georgetown yesterday....got most of it back feel better tonight...

[robmpink]

Pinny lean.

[daneblazer]

Round 1 - Bet dogs
Round 2- Call off the dogs
Round 3- Bet dogs

[jakeandba]

5 -2 today....bout time all that research paid off...after yesterday

Reminds me of the song.....Move bitch get out the way...