Butler Bulldogs go for unbeaten Horizon season at Valparaiso
Valparaiso has been a bettor's dream this season with its high-scoring offense, but on Friday the Crusaders run into a Butler squad intent on capturing the Horizon without a loss.
What puts the O in Valparaiso?
If you’ve been handicapping the Horizon League this year, you’ve seen the 15-15 Valparaiso Crusaders post some mouthwatering numbers: 16-9-1 ATS, and 16-7-1 for the 'over.' The numbers over the past five weeks look even better: 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS, with the 'over' at 11-1. What’s their secret formula?
It’s not that much of a secret. The Crusaders are an amazingly one-dimensional offensive team, loaded with outstanding shooters and poor defenders. Valpo ranks No. 66 in offensive efficiency and No. 308 in defensive efficiency out of the 347 teams in Division I. If more bettors paid attention to the Horizon League, the betting odds would have adjusted by now, but that’s what makes the mid-majors such a wonderful place for sharp handicappers.
The Crusaders also set themselves up for late-season success by taking on a fairly challenging non-conference slate, including stops at North Carolina (-23), Michigan State (-19) and Purdue (-24½). Valpo’s non-con strength of schedule ranks No. 66 according to Ken Pomeroy; the Horizon League is a cakewalk by comparison, No. 14 in the conference efficiency rankings and likely to send just one team to the ncaa tournament.
That would be the Butler Bulldogs. This is the one Horizon League member everyone knows about, a regular Tournament fixture who reached the Sweet Sixteen in 2003 and 2007. But recognition comes at a price.
The Bulldogs, 25-4 and undefeated in the Horizon League, are carrying enough chalk to go 12-17 ATS on the season (3-5 ATS in their last eight games). The 'over' has a mild 14-13 edge for this relatively balanced club.
The Horizon schedule got an early start when these two teams met on December 5 at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where Butler cruised to an 84-67 victory – not quite enough to cover with Valparaiso getting 18 points on the road. Again, the 'over' was an easy winner against a total of 135½ points. The Crusaders gave up their requisite points on defense, but their shooting touch was very much on display. They nailed seven of their 15 trey attempts and went 12-of-15 from the free-throw line, one of their many weaknesses last year.
The return of senior guard Brandon McPherson goes a long way toward addressing that problem. McPherson took a medical redshirt after playing just five games last year because of knee problems, but he’s back to his usual self now with 11.7 points and 3.2 assists per game and a 42.7 percent success rate from downtown (85.1 percent from the line). Iowa State transfer Cory Johnson (14.9 points, 5.7 rebounds per game) is also in his first year with Valparaiso and very welcome in the post.
Big things were expected this year from McPherson and Johnson, but the biggest addition to the Crusaders roster turned out to be guard Brandon Wood (17.9 points, 4.6 rebounds) per game), who transferred from Southern Illinois and is now the leading scorer in the Horizon League. These additions and others have allowed Valpo to climb out of the Horizon basement and play more like the team that used to dominate the Mid-Continent/Summit League before making the leap in 2007.
While the Crusaders have been operating in the shadows, Butler is coming off last week’s 70-53 destruction of the Siena Saints (+9) in the main event of ESPN’s highly publicized BracketBusters coverage. The Bulldogs even rested Willie Veasley (10.0 points, 4.2 rebounds per game) with a sprained left knee, proving yet again how much of the load is being carried by Butler’s Big Three of Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard.
The Bulldogs bench only soaks up 24.1 percent of the floor time available. The Division I average is 31.4 percent, and Valpo’s reserves are slightly busier than average at 31.6 percent. These are all positives for the Crusaders from a betting value perspective – even if they’re likely to get crushed on Thursday night. Tip-off is at 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Valparaiso has been a bettor's dream this season with its high-scoring offense, but on Friday the Crusaders run into a Butler squad intent on capturing the Horizon without a loss.
What puts the O in Valparaiso?
If you’ve been handicapping the Horizon League this year, you’ve seen the 15-15 Valparaiso Crusaders post some mouthwatering numbers: 16-9-1 ATS, and 16-7-1 for the 'over.' The numbers over the past five weeks look even better: 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS, with the 'over' at 11-1. What’s their secret formula?
It’s not that much of a secret. The Crusaders are an amazingly one-dimensional offensive team, loaded with outstanding shooters and poor defenders. Valpo ranks No. 66 in offensive efficiency and No. 308 in defensive efficiency out of the 347 teams in Division I. If more bettors paid attention to the Horizon League, the betting odds would have adjusted by now, but that’s what makes the mid-majors such a wonderful place for sharp handicappers.
The Crusaders also set themselves up for late-season success by taking on a fairly challenging non-conference slate, including stops at North Carolina (-23), Michigan State (-19) and Purdue (-24½). Valpo’s non-con strength of schedule ranks No. 66 according to Ken Pomeroy; the Horizon League is a cakewalk by comparison, No. 14 in the conference efficiency rankings and likely to send just one team to the ncaa tournament.
That would be the Butler Bulldogs. This is the one Horizon League member everyone knows about, a regular Tournament fixture who reached the Sweet Sixteen in 2003 and 2007. But recognition comes at a price.
The Bulldogs, 25-4 and undefeated in the Horizon League, are carrying enough chalk to go 12-17 ATS on the season (3-5 ATS in their last eight games). The 'over' has a mild 14-13 edge for this relatively balanced club.
The Horizon schedule got an early start when these two teams met on December 5 at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where Butler cruised to an 84-67 victory – not quite enough to cover with Valparaiso getting 18 points on the road. Again, the 'over' was an easy winner against a total of 135½ points. The Crusaders gave up their requisite points on defense, but their shooting touch was very much on display. They nailed seven of their 15 trey attempts and went 12-of-15 from the free-throw line, one of their many weaknesses last year.
The return of senior guard Brandon McPherson goes a long way toward addressing that problem. McPherson took a medical redshirt after playing just five games last year because of knee problems, but he’s back to his usual self now with 11.7 points and 3.2 assists per game and a 42.7 percent success rate from downtown (85.1 percent from the line). Iowa State transfer Cory Johnson (14.9 points, 5.7 rebounds per game) is also in his first year with Valparaiso and very welcome in the post.
Big things were expected this year from McPherson and Johnson, but the biggest addition to the Crusaders roster turned out to be guard Brandon Wood (17.9 points, 4.6 rebounds) per game), who transferred from Southern Illinois and is now the leading scorer in the Horizon League. These additions and others have allowed Valpo to climb out of the Horizon basement and play more like the team that used to dominate the Mid-Continent/Summit League before making the leap in 2007.
While the Crusaders have been operating in the shadows, Butler is coming off last week’s 70-53 destruction of the Siena Saints (+9) in the main event of ESPN’s highly publicized BracketBusters coverage. The Bulldogs even rested Willie Veasley (10.0 points, 4.2 rebounds per game) with a sprained left knee, proving yet again how much of the load is being carried by Butler’s Big Three of Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard.
The Bulldogs bench only soaks up 24.1 percent of the floor time available. The Division I average is 31.4 percent, and Valpo’s reserves are slightly busier than average at 31.6 percent. These are all positives for the Crusaders from a betting value perspective – even if they’re likely to get crushed on Thursday night. Tip-off is at 8:00 p.m. Eastern
