Big Ten a drain to bettors' bankrolls
There is some excellent basketball being played in the Big Ten with Purdue leading the way and about to move up to the No. 3 slot in both polls. But while the conference has several strong schools for the dance in March, it's a losing proposition for bettors with only Northwestern a real moneymaker. Can Matt Painter's Boilermakers produce winning margins on the floor and at the window?
Betting the Big Ten is the wagering version of walking through a minefield. If you don’t watch out and pick your spots, your whole bankroll could blow up in your face.
The Big Ten is among the nation’s strongest conferences, with Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all in the Top 25 in the polls. Too bad that doesn’t translate into profitability at the window: Heading into the week, the Big Ten sported only two schools that were in the black for bettors.
When you think of the Big Ten, you think of the Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Spartans, and Badgers, but none of those teams are the best bet in the conference. That honor belongs to Northwestern, which is a sparkling 16-7 ATS (17-10 SU) on the season after cashing as 12½-point underdogs in its 70-63 loss at Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon.
Sporting a 7-2 ATS number (4-5 SU) in their last nine games, the Wildcats are not only the most solvent wager in the Big Ten, but the sharpest. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon, either. Northwestern is easily the least public program in the conference.
The only other Big Ten team making money is Wisconsin, and it’s not as if it’s rolling in cash. The Badgers dropped to 14-11 ATS (20-7 SU) with their win over the Wildcats on Sunday, and are 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in their last four games.
Wisconsin should get a boost at the window now that Jon Leuer has returned to the fold after missing nine games with a sprained wrist. Wisconsin stayed afloat by going 5-4 ATS (6-3 SU) in Leuer’s absence, but it’s a better bet with the 6-foot-10 forward on the floor.
After the Wildcats and Badgers, the Big Ten is filled with pedestrian wagers. Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State are all around the .500 mark against the spread, with the Buckeyes and Wolverines ‘leading’ the pack at 14-14 ATS and 11-11 ATS, respectively.
The Big Ten also features a handful of schools to be faded during the latter part of conference play. Michigan State is the least profitable bet on the board at 10-17 ATS (21-7 SU), and is especially awful in East Lansing. With their 74-67 defeat to the Buckeyes (+3½) on Sunday afternoon, the Spartans fell to 4-10 ATS at home this season.
Simply put, Michigan State hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations that had it as a contender for the national title back in the preseason. The Spartans carry a heavy price on most nights because of it, and they’re usually unable to overcome the levy. At 3-8 against the spread (7-4 SU) in its last 11 games, Michigan State is worth avoiding at this time of the year.
Indiana is still reeling after the recruiting violations and subsequent penalties that decimated the program two years ago, and that’s hurt it as a wager. The Hoosiers are a disappointing 10-15-1 ATS (9-17 SU) this season, even if they get plenty of points on most nights. Oddsmakers handed Indiana 17 points for its matchup with Minnesota on Saturday, but they couldn’t cover in an 81-58 road loss.
The defeat was the eighth in a row (3-5 ATS) for Indiana, which has dropped five straight games against the number. With not much talent on the roster and leading scorer Maurice Creek (knee) out for the season, there’s no reason to wager the Hoosiers with any regularity for the rest of the schedule.
Like Indiana, Iowa is well into the red at 10-16 ATS (9-18 SU), but in contrast to the Hoosiers, the Hawkeyes are worth capping. With its 80-78 overtime win at Michigan as four-point pups last Tuesday, Iowa is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games despite going only 3-7 SU.
Illinois is 11-15 ATS (17-10 SU), but it’s been profitable for 'over' bettors this season. At 16-7 O/U, the Fighting Illini are the best 'over' wager in the Big Ten. Another school that’s consistently hit the 'over' lately is Northwestern, which is 9-2 O/U in its last 11 games.
Michigan is the 'under' wonder of the conference at 7-15 O/U, which includes a 2-8 O/U mark in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are 2-11 O/U in their last 13 games, and take on the Illini on Tuesday night in a battle of the Big Ten teams at each end of the totals spectrum.
There is some excellent basketball being played in the Big Ten with Purdue leading the way and about to move up to the No. 3 slot in both polls. But while the conference has several strong schools for the dance in March, it's a losing proposition for bettors with only Northwestern a real moneymaker. Can Matt Painter's Boilermakers produce winning margins on the floor and at the window?
Betting the Big Ten is the wagering version of walking through a minefield. If you don’t watch out and pick your spots, your whole bankroll could blow up in your face.
The Big Ten is among the nation’s strongest conferences, with Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all in the Top 25 in the polls. Too bad that doesn’t translate into profitability at the window: Heading into the week, the Big Ten sported only two schools that were in the black for bettors.
When you think of the Big Ten, you think of the Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Spartans, and Badgers, but none of those teams are the best bet in the conference. That honor belongs to Northwestern, which is a sparkling 16-7 ATS (17-10 SU) on the season after cashing as 12½-point underdogs in its 70-63 loss at Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon.
Sporting a 7-2 ATS number (4-5 SU) in their last nine games, the Wildcats are not only the most solvent wager in the Big Ten, but the sharpest. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon, either. Northwestern is easily the least public program in the conference.
The only other Big Ten team making money is Wisconsin, and it’s not as if it’s rolling in cash. The Badgers dropped to 14-11 ATS (20-7 SU) with their win over the Wildcats on Sunday, and are 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in their last four games.
Wisconsin should get a boost at the window now that Jon Leuer has returned to the fold after missing nine games with a sprained wrist. Wisconsin stayed afloat by going 5-4 ATS (6-3 SU) in Leuer’s absence, but it’s a better bet with the 6-foot-10 forward on the floor.
After the Wildcats and Badgers, the Big Ten is filled with pedestrian wagers. Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State are all around the .500 mark against the spread, with the Buckeyes and Wolverines ‘leading’ the pack at 14-14 ATS and 11-11 ATS, respectively.
The Big Ten also features a handful of schools to be faded during the latter part of conference play. Michigan State is the least profitable bet on the board at 10-17 ATS (21-7 SU), and is especially awful in East Lansing. With their 74-67 defeat to the Buckeyes (+3½) on Sunday afternoon, the Spartans fell to 4-10 ATS at home this season.
Simply put, Michigan State hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations that had it as a contender for the national title back in the preseason. The Spartans carry a heavy price on most nights because of it, and they’re usually unable to overcome the levy. At 3-8 against the spread (7-4 SU) in its last 11 games, Michigan State is worth avoiding at this time of the year.
Indiana is still reeling after the recruiting violations and subsequent penalties that decimated the program two years ago, and that’s hurt it as a wager. The Hoosiers are a disappointing 10-15-1 ATS (9-17 SU) this season, even if they get plenty of points on most nights. Oddsmakers handed Indiana 17 points for its matchup with Minnesota on Saturday, but they couldn’t cover in an 81-58 road loss.
The defeat was the eighth in a row (3-5 ATS) for Indiana, which has dropped five straight games against the number. With not much talent on the roster and leading scorer Maurice Creek (knee) out for the season, there’s no reason to wager the Hoosiers with any regularity for the rest of the schedule.
Like Indiana, Iowa is well into the red at 10-16 ATS (9-18 SU), but in contrast to the Hoosiers, the Hawkeyes are worth capping. With its 80-78 overtime win at Michigan as four-point pups last Tuesday, Iowa is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games despite going only 3-7 SU.
Illinois is 11-15 ATS (17-10 SU), but it’s been profitable for 'over' bettors this season. At 16-7 O/U, the Fighting Illini are the best 'over' wager in the Big Ten. Another school that’s consistently hit the 'over' lately is Northwestern, which is 9-2 O/U in its last 11 games.
Michigan is the 'under' wonder of the conference at 7-15 O/U, which includes a 2-8 O/U mark in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are 2-11 O/U in their last 13 games, and take on the Illini on Tuesday night in a battle of the Big Ten teams at each end of the totals spectrum.
