Decided to just make one thread for the remainder of the season. Have done fairly well, but this past weekend hurt the record and the wallet just a bit. It's a new week though. I'll be back with my leans and write ups later.
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Keep bangin DUke...A hot streak always follows a cold..
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Write ups are in. I hope these help anyone who reads them. I will post when I lock in my plays later. I may do a write up on UCONN/Louisville later. BOL to everyone tonight.
1.W. Mich +4.5 @ Buffalo: This is a classic MAC game. The road team (W. Mich) does not play as well on the road, and the home team (Buffalo) plays better at home. I think these teams are fairly evenly matched, but the fact is that W. Mich is a completely different team on the road. They are allowing 9 ppg more on the road, while their scoring does not increase. They turn the ball over more on the road, and their shooting percentage declines. Buffalo on the other hand, increases their play at home, especially on defense. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 on the road, and I expect them to play better tonight than they have of late. Lately, their defense has been awful. Allowing teams to score over 82 ppg, but as I said earlier, their defense is much better at home. When capping, I generally like to look at common opponents. Three games are common between these teams (@ N. Ill, vs. Akron and @ Kent State). Buffalo is 2-1 in these 3, while W. Mich is 1-2. I will not however, put much stock in this because one of the losses by W. Mich was a one point loss at Kent State. Both of these teams have a resume that says to go for the over as well (Over is 8-5 for WM and 10-2 for Buffalo). Also, all of the trends are saying over as well. However, I just don’t see this one getting to the 147.5 total. I am not naïve enough to think that I know more than the experts in Vegas, so though my lean is the under, I will probably stay away from the total. Buffalo is a much more balanced team that has a deeper bench, while W. Mich relies on David Kool for most of their offensive production. I generally favor the more balanced attacks, especially if the dominant player for a team is a guard. It is so tough to shoot well on the road, and sometimes you just have an off shooting night. I like the home team in this one to get it done. My lean is Buffalo -4.5.
2.N. Illinois +13.5 @ Kent State: The MAC conference is balanced league for the most part. Any team could play with any other team on a given night. Having said this, I just think 13.5 points is way too many to give up to anyone in this conference (aside from Toledo). This is a tale of two different teams. N. Illinois started strong this season in conference winning their first 4 games, but have since dropped their last 3. Kent State lost 2 of its first 3 conference games, but has since won its last 4. N. Ill has been miserable on the road to say the least. They aren’t scoring, and allowing other teams to put up way too many points (scoring 61 and giving up 71). They turn the ball over 17 times per game on the road!!! No one can win turning the ball over that much. Kent State, on the other hand, has not been spectacular at home this season. They are allowing 70 ppg at home this season, and it hasn’t been coming against the stiffest of competition. They do however, protect the ball much better only committing 11 turnovers per game at home. I could not make a judgment based on common opponents because of the streaky nature of the two. They both beat W. Mich at home. No. Ill beat them by 10, but that was early in the season when they were playing well, and Kent only beat them by 1 in a game they never should have won. This is a tough game because both teams could play bad, but they could both play well. The trends do not favor either side in this matchup either. My lean is N. Ill plus the 13.5 based solely on my opinion of the MAC conference. It is just way too many points to give up even though the numbers say Kent should hammer them. Also, with a gun to my head I would probably have to say under for this one too. The under is 6-2 in the last 8 head-to-head meetings.
3.Texas -2 @ Oklahoma State:
What in the world has happened to the Longhorns? They have dropped 3 of 4, and they were played close in the three games prior to this losing skid. The answer to that is defense. They have been terrible on the defensive end. They are giving up 80 ppg in their last 8 games, which is 20 ppg more than they gave up in the first 13. Struggling defense is not a characteristic of a Mack Brown coached team. And it’s not like they have shown signs of coming around. There best defensive performance was against Texas A&M at home, but on the road their best performance on defense was a loss at Kansas State. One usually expects teams to struggle on the road, and most do against good competition, but Texas has been struggling against average teams (Arkansas, Iowa St, UCONN).
Also, while the defense has gotten worse, the offense has not picked up the slack. Damion James has been part of the reason. In their last 4 road games, James is averaging only 9.3 ppg (season average is over 18), and he is averaging only 11 ppg in their 3 losses. I do however, see him turning that around tonight against the Cowboys. James has played extremely well against them in the past, especially in Stillwater. Last year James posted an average of 18.5 pts and 12 reb against the Cowboys (including 18 pts and 18 rebs in Stillwater). He also, averaged around 13 points against them in 2007-08 when he had a lesser role on the team. James has not been the only player struggling however. Dexter Pittman has also seen his performance decline as of late. Pittman has only average 8.3 pts and 3.3 rebs in Texas’ three losses this year. On top of that, they need him to stay on the court. With fatigue and foul problems, Pittman has only averaged 20 min per game on the season. In order for Texas to pull out this game tonight they will need Pittman and James to step up and lead them to victory.
OK State is a team that can look like a top 25 team one night, then like an inexperienced basement team the next. While this is true, they have been good at home this season, but that has been against lesser Big 12 competition. The Cowboys looked great last week when they went on the road and knocked off Kansas State, but they laid an egg this past weekend at Mizzou. So we have a team that has been dominant at home in conference, but against the weaker teams, and hit or miss on the road against the better teams in the conference. This is the sign of a good, but not great team. Good teams take care of the teams they should at home, and win some on the road. Their inconsistency, however, is what worries me in this game. Ok St has followed every loss this season with another subpar performance. They were demolished @Tulsa then followed that with a less than stellar victory at home to Texas-San Antonio by 7. Then they were beaten on a neutral site by Rhode Island, and they did follow that up with a convincing win, but it was against Coppin State. Then they were beaten @ Oklahoma and followed that up with a loss @Baylor. One common denominator though, is that all of their losses have been away from home. James Anderson is a stud, and I am not sure if Texas has anyone to stop him. He is averaging 24.3 ppg in home conference games this season, so he is going to get his points but it’s the other role players that will be key. Playing at home tonight, in a primetime game on national television should have both sides fired up, but the Cowboys will have the advantage of the home crowd.
Trend wise, this game looks like a no brainer: the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, Texas is 2-6 ATS in last 8 @ Ok St, Texas is 1-3-1 ATS in last 5 overall against Ok St, and no to mention Texas is 0-8 ATS in last 8 games overall. In a game of this magnitude however, I throw trends out of the window. Trends may be important to some, but for me I look at who needs this game more. And to me, that is Texas. They haven’t played well for a better part of a month, and their schedule doesn’t get any easier. They have to stop the bleeding and they have to do it now, or it could send their season into a tail spin. The home/road splits for both teams are not much of a concern because one expects to see a drop off in performance on the road and better play at home. The splits for both teams are only slightly different. One more factor is the number of freshman Texas has that give significant contributions. Three of their top five scorers are freshman. Road conference games are tough enough, but one that is on national TV is even tougher.
Through this entire write up you may have thought that I favor the Cowboys in this matchup, you would be wrong. Although Ok St has been playing better as of late, you can only hold a good team down for so long. Early in the season, Texas was playing the best basketball in the country. Until this little skid, they were dominant on both ends. I like Texas to turn it around tonight against the Cowboys and win 77-69. My play will be Texas -2. I love the under too, but I have a general rule that I do not play the line and the total of the same game.
4.Toledo @ Bowling Green: Toledo is bad, real real bad, especially scoring the basketball. But as bad as they are at scoring, BG is almost that bad. Toledo is averaging 53 ppg on the road this season, shooting under 38% from the field, under 30% from three, and turning the ball over nearly twice as much as their opponent. BG only averages 65 ppg at home this season, and their shooting is shaky at best. Both of these teams are a methodical on offense. The trends in this game are screaming under (check out the trend analysis for this game, everything is for the under). When the line is between 110 and 119.5 the under is 3-0 for BG. There is no way I put money on the line is this game. BG is too bad themselves to take them giving up 15.5 points even if it is to one of the worst teams in the country. I do however like the under of 118.5 (at Pinnacle), the line opened at 117 and I’m hoping it will continue to go up. I won’t lock in until late to see if it will go up anymore.Comment -
GREAT WORK Duke Blue I enjoyed the write-ups. I am with you on Buffalo and and Texas tonight for all of the same reasons you describe. And I am also interested in the UCONN/LOU pick whenever you release it. I appreciate the hard work and all you do keep it up. Also on N.ILL. but don't think I'll play it. BOL tonight sir and look forward to the UCONN/LOU pick.Comment -
Uconn +6.5 @ Louisville:
This is a tough game to call, thus the reason this write up is coming out later than the others. Both of these teams are underachieving this year if you look at the talent on each roster. Louisville has blown big leads as of late, and UCONN just hasn’t been showing up. Showing up is the key to this game. Which ever team shows up ready to play will win, but if both show up I like UCONN. Uconn has the talent inside and out, and they have shown flashes of having a good defense. There problem is finding someone to score consistently. Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson are their big offensive threats, but they are so hit or miss. In order for them to win tonight both will have to show up. Louisville is in a similar situation. Samardo Samuels is a beast inside on some nights, then others they just don’t give him the ball. Both teams have athletes on the inside, which will not only make this a physical game, but one that is won on the FT line. Louisville has the advantage on the FT line, but their PG Sosa only shoots 64%. Late in games you want your experienced primary ball handler with the ball at all times, but he struggles from the line.
Against WV, Louisville hit a lot of threes, but most of them were open shots. I do not see Louisville getting the wide open looks they were getting against the Mountaineers. On paper, UConn looks like a mediocre team at best, but when you look at the roster there is no reason for their struggles. They have four guys who average in double figures scoring, but after that production is limited. They are not very deep, which will hurt them in a physical game. When most people hear physical they think of tough, grind it out, low scoring affairs, but this one should not be low scoring by any means. Louisville will look to force turnovers and get out on the break. If UConn can handle the ball, and play good transition defense will have the upper hand. Both teams have played poorly as of late in these areas. Both teams have committed more turnovers than they have forced, both teams have given up over 70 ppg (Uconn 70, Louisville 78), but Louisville has been getting outrebounded. If the Cardinals cannot control the boards tonight they cannot win this game.
Trend analysis for this game will not mean much, because both teams have dismal resumes in that area. For me, the winner of this game will be the team that can bounce back and forget the first half of the season. Louisville is coming off a heart breaking loss that Pitino said they were robbed in, on top of other games they have blown leads. UConn has been struggling all around the last 3 weeks. Louisville has played better at home this year, but that was against teams that were overmatched: Cincinnati, St. Johns, and South Florida. UConn has been bad on the road losing to Providence, Michigan, and Cincinnati. All and all, this is a game that is going to be filled with emotion between two teams that desperately need this win. These kind of games scare me because they can go either way. My lean right now is to take UConn +6.5. Louisville has struggled maintaining leads this year so I do not see them blowing them out. This is a bounce back game for the Huskies.Comment -
Thanks for the write up DukeBlue as you were dead on correct about these two teams. I will probably otherwise stay off this game tonight and hope that we both cash in with Texas and Buffalo. BOL tonight and thanks again sir.
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Card Feb 1:
1. Under 118 BG/Tol
2. Buffalo -5
3. Texas -2
4. UCONN +6.5Comment -
I am really thinking about N. Ill. Anyone got any thoughts?Comment -
Card Feb 1:
1. Under 118 BG/Tol
2. Buffalo -5
3. Texas -2
4. UCONN +6.5
Hoping to get a back door cover from UCONN, but that is looking bleak at the momentComment -
Card Feb 1:
1. Under 118 BG/Tol
2. Buffalo -5
3. Texas -2
4. UCONN +6.5
2-2 yesterday which is better than losing. 33-29-1 YTD. Gonna have a good night tonight.
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Lets do it brother BOL tonight.Comment -
Duke great call on Texas game yesterday We both cashed on that one!
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Hey DukeBlue I just posted my stronger leans for the day and eliminated a few but still open to new ideas. Let me know what you think BOL tonight sir and will talk to you soon.
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Here are my leans and write ups for today. Sorry for them being so late. Hope these help.
1.Miami +6.5 @ Wake Forest: Another tough one in the ACC. What makes the ACC so tough is that, unlike most conferences, home teams do not always win much less cover. Miami started off fast this season, but that was because they did not play tough competition. Miami has struggled so far in conference, especially on the road. They are a completely different team on the road. They allow more points than they score, compared to Wake who out scores opponents by 12 at home. They only have a 1 rebound advantage compared to Wake’s 13 rebound advantage. Miami’s FG% and 3PT% are much lower as well as their turnover ratio. In conference road games this season, Miami has been outscored by an average of 18 ppg in their last 3 (@ Maryland, VT, and Virginia), the only close road game (lost by 1) was @BC who is also below average. Wake has been good at home in conference (3-0), and has had a quality win against Xavier as well. My worry with Wake is what we saw in their last game and that is their inconsistency on offense. Against GT they scored a mere 58 points with a horrid FG%. They have no consistent deep threats, but they are very athletic on the wings and have depth and size on the inside. Wake should be able to control the boards in this game, and as long as they can play solid defense on Miami’s athletes and keep their starters out of foul trouble they should win. Wake beat Miami earlier this season in Coral Gables, and though that was a close game, that was before Miami began to struggle and the Canes were at home. Miami is coming off a big home win against VT, which could have upped their psyche. Personally, I think Miami is a below average team that will struggle to defend Wake’s inside players, so my play lean is toward Wake minus the points.
2.SMU +5 @ S. Miss: On paper, both of these teams seem to be pretty evenly matched. The difference is that SMU has only played 2 road conference games this season (1-1; beat Rice who is real bad), and S. Miss has played the majority of their games on the road. S. Miss has been very competitive this season (1 pt loss @UAB, 7 pt loss @UTEP, 2 pt loss vs. Memphis). Both teams have been very good ATS as of late (SMU 4-0, S. Miss 5-0). SMU’s record and stats are inflated to a certain extent due to 4 games against non-division I opponents (3-1 in these games). What makes S. Miss tough is their defense. They play a slow paced and physical game and allow opponents to score 57 ppg. Both teams are adept at playing this style however. SMU has 10 guys who average over 10 min per game and S. Miss has 8. This should be a low scoring close affair, but in these sorts of games I tend to give the advantage to the home team. I also do not like the fact that SMU has played so little on the road and yet they are still only a .500 ball team. My lean is for S. Miss -5. Trends for both teams are very good, but SMU is only 1-4 ATS in the last 5 heads up meetings.
3.Ole Miss +11 @ Kentucky: Kentucky is a good team, there is no doubt about that, but so is Ole Miss. I’m sure most of you have already heard about the little “battle” between John Wall and Coach Calipari, and as much as they try to down play it this will have an affect on the team. The team leader cannot be at odds with the head coach and expect to be successful. While Kentucky has looked dominant in many games this year, there have been plenty of games where they have not (vs. Miami OH, vs. UGA, @ Scar, @ Auburn, vs. Long Beach St). Kentucky is beatable for one reason, they play careless basketball. This run and gun offense worked for Cal in Conference USA because the athletes are not as good. In the SEC, you have seen Kentucky turn the ball over a lot, and take very poor shots. I think this line is inflated due to Ole Miss losing at home to Arkansas over the weekend. The Rebels have proven they can play on the road this season. They had Tenn beat until they gave up the lead late and lost in OT (this was before Tenn lost half of their team), and they played WV tough on the road (and lost by 10 and covered an 11.5 pt spread… seem familiar). In conference, the Rebels are 3-1 on the road and remarkably they don’t play or shoot any worse on the road than they do at home. For me, the key for this game will be DeMarcus Cousins. If he can actually stay on the court, play good smart basketball, and be a compliment to Patterson, then UK could cover this spread. The Rebels do not have the inside players to match up with both of these guys inside. For Ole Miss, Terrico White will be the key. In their 3 losses that were not close (so I excluded Tenn because they had that game won until the end), he has averaged 9 ppg. He is their best scorer, shooter, and their leader, so he must have a big game to keep the Rebs in this one. UK probably wins this game and could even blow them out, but there is only a slight chance of that. The Rebels need to get out to a fast start and play like they have all year on the road. My lean is Ole Miss +11. I would say lock, but I want to see if the line goes up anymore.
4.Mich St +2 @ Wisconsin: I usually stay away from Big 10 games because they are so hard to cap, but this one stuck out to me. Michigan State is a good team, but they tend to play to the level of their opponent (especially on the road). Mich St has won their last 2 road games (Mich and Minn) by one point each game. The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall, and have played just good enough to win those games. On the road, Mich St does not score. In the last 2 road games they have only had 5 players score. They are too dependent on Morgan and Lucas, which will hurt them in this game. Wisconsin is undefeated at home this season, and has looked quite impressive doing so. They shoot 47% from the field and 78% from the line. Historically, teams just don’t go to Wisconsin and win. They have a tremendous home court advantage, but it is not the crowd or noise, but the confidence and swagger the Badgers play with when at home. The key for the Badgers will be Jason Bohannon. He is going to get shots and he has to hit them. Bohannon has struggled this season from behind the arc, and he will need to hit them if the Badgers want to upset the Spartans. Home court advantage has been huge in this series ATS (home teams are 9-2 ATS in last 11). Mich St has not impressed me much this season, and they have been playing too many close games as of late. I see the Badgers winning and covering tonight. My play locked in is Wisc -2. Caution to those who tail, I hate the Big 10 and rarely bet the lines. This one just stuck out to me.
I also like La Salle and East Carolina, but these are gut plays. I will play one of them but not sure which one yet. BOL tonight to anyone who follows.Comment -
i hate big-10 as well but how can you argue with wiscy track record in home games....gl tonightComment -
Card 2/2:
1. Wake -6
2. Wisc -2
3. Ole Miss +11
4. S. Miss -5
5. La Salle +4Comment -
Hey DukeBlue great post with writeups myself as well as everyone appreciate the great effort you put into all leans and plays. I am with you on S. Miss. and Wisconsin but against you a a few others. Anyway, BOL to tonight and hope you cash in big. Thanks Again Big Dave.
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Thanks dave. I've got a lot of lurkers but never get any feedback. I appreciate all of your posts.Hey DukeBlue great post with writeups myself as well as everyone appreciate the great effort you put into all leans and plays. I am with you on S. Miss. and Wisconsin but against you a a few others. Anyway, BOL to tonight and hope you cash in big. Thanks Again Big Dave.Comment -
[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Card 2/2:
1. Wake -6
2. Wisc -2
3. Ole Miss +11
4. S. Miss -5
5. La Salle +4
WOW!!!!!!!!!! Late meaningless three + no call on travel = BACKDOOR COVER BABY!!!!!!!!
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S.Miss was up by 7-8 with 1:30 +/- and they cant close the door. Feel bad about this one because I knew that there may have been better on the card but I thought this one was going to come through. I am almost finished with Conf. USA but there are a few tomm. that look good right now so we will see. BOL with Wisconsin as I have got them too so GO BADGERS in second half. We will go back to work tomm. Thanks Again Big Dave.
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Card 2/2
1. Wake -6
2. Wisc -2
3. Ole Miss +11
4. S. Miss -5
5. La Salle +4
3-2 yesterday. And Big Dave you are exactly right. S. Miss was up 10 with 3 min left and couldn't hit free throws or hold on to the ball. Oh well, that's the way it goes sometimes.
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Early Leans 2/3:
1. George Mason -1 (@ Ga St)
2. Pitt +9 (@ WV)
3. Marshall +8 (@ Tulsa)
4. USF +12.5 (@Georgetown)
5. UAB +7 (@ Mem)
6. Vir -5.5 (vs. NC St)
7. Vandy -6 (vs. Miss St)
8. W&M +11.5 (@ Old Dom)
Once again just leans, feedback is appreciated. Writes coming for my stronger leans later.Comment -
Good Morning DukeBlue, I am with you on George Mason and Pitt. WVU has just had too many close wins at home but uncertain about Pitts. letdown at USF and how they respond. Morgantown is a tough place to win but thinking they keep it close if the referees allow it unlike in the Lou. game. Dont really have an opinion on the others but I will look at them more. I do have a small lean to N.C. State though just b/c Virginia coming off big win @ UNC. But, the last time N.C. State played Virginia they got beat and they were coming off a win against non division 1 opp. same thing in this game N.C. State coming off win against non-division 1 opp... maybe something interesting to think about. Anyhow BOL tonight and we will continue to work throughout the day. Thanks Again Big Dave
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Here are the write ups for tonight. I may play some others depending on the lines I can get. I like the card tonight so it may be a big night (in number of plays and hopefully cash) for me. Hope these help.
1.Pitt +9 @ WV: Something about this line seems a little off to me. WV is not good enough and has not been playing well enough to give up this many points to a good Pitt team. It seems like the line is staying high in order to get more action on the Panthers, which is always scary for me when betting. Now, I understand that Pitt has come back to earth after their fast start, but they are still a good team. The problem with Pitt as of late has been on the offensive end. In their last 4 games they are averaging only 62ppg (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS). Lately, they have struggled from behind the arc and with turnovers; thus the reason for poor outings. WV is an athletic team that likes to shoot the three, which makes Pitt’s perimeter defense one of the main factors in this game. WV has attempted the fourth most 3 pointers in the conference and shooting at a 35.7% clip which is just slightly over the NCAA average. What makes the Mountaineers tough is that they have several guys that are capable of taking over a game by themselves. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut by any means (Both rank in the bottom third in the conference in FG%). Also, Pitt is very much a guard oriented offense, but they are a slashing and cutting offense as opposed to a 3 point offense (top 4 scorers are G’s). Pitt’s lack of a 3 point attack scares me because if they get down early it’ll be hard to come back without the 3 ball. Tough a good team, WV has not shown too much as of late, more just getting by; and the trend analysis is in Pitt’s favor all the way, including heads up trends where Pitt is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 in Morgantown. The key for me will be defense. Both teams play good defense, which should make this another tough, physical game in the Big East. Also, if the game is close late the Panthers have the advantage in FT shooting (WV 64% at home, Pitt 74% on the road). My lean is toward Pitt plus the points mainly because I think they are too good to be beaten by double figures. I will think long in hard though before I put money on it just because the line smells fishy.
2.USF +12.5 @ Georgetown: I really like this matchup. Georgetown is coming off their best performance, far and away, of the year against my Blue Devils. They were shooting lights out and playing hellacious defense, and they looked like the best team in America. I’ve watched enough Hoyas games this season to know that it is not always (or ever) like that. After such a good win could this mean the Hoyas are primed for a let down? For me the line is inflated because of the impressive win over Duke this past weekend, and the relative unknown of a pretty good and athletic South Florida team. The Bulls have been hit or miss on the road this season, but lately they have been good (2-0 ATS). On the other hand, Georgetown has been equally as good at home (3-0 ATS). When looking at skill the advantage is to Georgetown, hands down; but the Bulls are long and athletic and could give the Hoyas some problems inside. The key for South Florida will be defense. Duke allowed the Hoyas to basically shoot a lay up drill all afternoon on Saturday, and if the Bulls turn the ball over and allow the same thing it’ll be a long day for them. Trend and ATS wise, the Bulls have the advantage. The Hoyas have been historically bad in conference ATS (7-20 in their last 27). These teams have met 4 previous times and the Bulls are 3-1 ATS, with their 3 wins ATS were when G’town was a double digit favorite. The Hoyas do not have a great overall defense, but an opportunistic one that they rely on to create points in transition. Ball control and controlling the pace of the game will be key for South Florida. My lean, though not my strongest, is USF +12.5.
3.UAB +7 @ Memphis: When is the last time you had to not only worry about Memphis covering a home conference game, but winning the game straight up prior to this year? Memphis still has athletes, but they no longer have far superior athletes compared to the rest of the conference. The Tigers have had trouble scoring the basketball consistently this year, and it shouldn’t get easier tonight against a stingy UAB defense. Both teams are coming off losses and should be hungry. This is a huge game as far as conference standings go. Both teams rely on the 3 ball heavily (33% of UAB’s shots are 3’s, 40% of Mem’s shots are 3’s), therefore perimeter defense is going to be key. I think a low scoring game favors UAB and a higher scoring game favors Memphis. UAB is one of the surprises this season, and with Memphis being down from years past, I think they have a chance to not only cover but win this game straight up. Because the make up of Memphis’ team this year is so different than past teams, I threw out all trend analysis when making my decision for this game. My lean is UAB +7. If I take this game it’ll be a gut play. I usually take any underdog that I think has a possibility of winning the game, but I’m just not sure.
4.Miss St +5.5 @ Vandy: Vandy has had a tough schedule thus far with 4 of their 6 conference games on the road, and they have emerged quite impressive. Miss St on the other hand, has struggled on the road this season (2-3 SU, with wins at Ole Miss and at SD, but losses @ W. Kent, Ark and AL). I do not put much stock in the Ole Miss win for two reasons: first, Ole Miss plays better on the road than they do at home and second, in a rivalry game both teams will bring their best effort. Coming off their first loss in their last 11 games, Vandy is primed for a bounce back win at home. My decision on this game will be based mostly on how well Vandy plays at home and how poorly Miss St is on the road. 35.7% of Miss St’s shots are from behind the arc, but they are only shooting 29% from deep on the road. The Bulldogs are also averaging 5 more turnovers than they force on the road. Vandy also takes the advantage in FT shooting by a wide margin, which will be beneficial late in the game. The key for Vandy will be if Ogilvy can handle Varnado on the inside. If Varnado is able to roam the middle on both ends and control the boards and alter shots, this will make Vandy one dimensional. I like Vandy’s scoring ability at home though, and expect this one to be somewhat of a blowout. My strongest lean so far is Vandy -5.5. I see Vandy bouncing back from their loss to Kentucky with an impressive win.
5.NC St +5.5 @ Virginia: Virginia is one of the biggest surprises in the country to this point of the season. Virginia has an underrated defense, and one of the best scorers no one knows about in Sylven Landesburg. NC St has been impressive in some spots this season, but they have looked average in others. Another factor for me is that the Wolfpack have only played two road conference games this season. This lack of road experience should be a disadvantage for State. Virginia has been impressive at home this season (2-1 SU, only loss was in OT to in-state rival VT). Tempo and ball control will be the deciding factor in this game. Virginia will look to work the shot clock, work methodically, and play tough defense, while NC St really plays little defense and can take quick shots. This offense works for NC St as long as they are hitting their shots (i.e. Duke game), but they can also shoot themselves right out of games (i.e. UNC). Virginia will be riding a high after beating UNC, and they need this win to stay in the hunt in the ACC. The one problem some may see for the Cavs is that they do not have a big inside to match Tracey Smith one on one. Luckily for the Cavs, they generally play a zone defense that will make it more difficult for Smith to operate in the post. Therefore, unless the Wolfpack come out shooting lights out, they will struggle to consistently score against the Cavs zone. Virginia beat NC St earlier in the season in Raleigh, so they know they can win and I expect them to come out confident. My lean and probable play is Virginia -5.5.Comment -
Thanks as always for your input Dave. I hope the write ups help.Good Morning DukeBlue, I am with you on George Mason and Pitt. WVU has just had too many close wins at home but uncertain about Pitts. letdown at USF and how they respond. Morgantown is a tough place to win but thinking they keep it close if the referees allow it unlike in the Lou. game. Dont really have an opinion on the others but I will look at them more. I do have a small lean to N.C. State though just b/c Virginia coming off big win @ UNC. But, the last time N.C. State played Virginia they got beat and they were coming off a win against non division 1 opp. same thing in this game N.C. State coming off win against non-division 1 opp... maybe something interesting to think about. Anyhow BOL tonight and we will continue to work throughout the day. Thanks Again Big DaveComment -
Hey DukeBlue the analysis on those five matchups were great I really appreciate it. I really like Pitt. and Vandy tonight along with a few others but probably am staying away from the other matchups especially Conf. USA after last night. But anyhow BOL tonight... Do you have any opinion on the CAA games or A10 games tonight, just wondering keep up the good work. Big Dave
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Like George Mason but the line smells fishy, like W&M but not sure if i'll play,Comment -
I know I don't get that spot on George Mason, and there are alot liking William and Mary tonight. Thanks for the reply and BOL tonight sir.Comment -
BOL
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