NCAAB "System Plays"

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  • ol'Tex
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-08-10
    • 318

    #71
    hey snap, what kind of percentages have you seen overall while testing these systems?
    Comment
    • snapstick
      Restricted User
      • 08-18-09
      • 3861

      #72
      Right arount 60% with both systems.
      Comment
      • ol'Tex
        SBR Sharp
        • 01-08-10
        • 318

        #73
        very nice thanks for sharing it with the community
        Comment
        • snapstick
          Restricted User
          • 08-18-09
          • 3861

          #74
          Comment
          • snapstick
            Restricted User
            • 08-18-09
            • 3861

            #75
            Sunday, 01/24/2010

            "System" #1

            Seton Hall -2.5 vs. #11 Pittsburgh

            Florida State -2.5 vs. #18 Georgia Tech



            "System" #2

            No Plays



            Year To Date Record:
            "System" #1: 1-1
            "System" #2: 1-0

            Combined "System" Record: 2-1
            Comment
            • peterpan19
              Restricted User
              • 11-02-08
              • 3377

              #76
              Originally posted by snapstick
              Right arount 60% with both systems.

              so yo you have a record for previous years now...

              keep up the good work...

              GL
              Comment
              • snapstick
                Restricted User
                • 08-18-09
                • 3861

                #77
                Have a record from last season for System #1 (41-22) and System #2 (27-14) but thats it and thats from someone in the handicapping community and i cant post all the plays to prove it. Thats why i didnt post it becaue i knew some out there would question the record. Just last years resultts is all i can provide but was told it has hit around 60% for the last few years.
                Comment
                • snapstick
                  Restricted User
                  • 08-18-09
                  • 3861

                  #78
                  "
                  Comment
                  • snapstick
                    Restricted User
                    • 08-18-09
                    • 3861

                    #79
                    Looking ahead there are no plays for Monday for either "System".
                    Comment
                    • Big Dave's Picks
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 01-21-10
                      • 478

                      #80
                      I appreciate the update Snap. I think that using the LVSC lines will be a much better way to measure the system. BOL today and thanks for all the work sir.
                      Comment
                      • snapstick
                        Restricted User
                        • 08-18-09
                        • 3861

                        #81
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #82
                          ive always been big on betting against ranked road teams catching points...never really thought about/ heard about the system 2 part...nice makes a lot of sense
                          Comment
                          • snapstick
                            Restricted User
                            • 08-18-09
                            • 3861

                            #83
                            BOL Bank
                            Comment
                            • snapstick
                              Restricted User
                              • 08-18-09
                              • 3861

                              #84
                              Originally posted by snapstick
                              Sunday, 01/24/2010

                              "System" #1

                              Seton Hall -2.5 vs. #11 Pittsburgh

                              Florida State -2.5 vs. #18 Georgia Tech



                              "System" #2

                              No Plays



                              Year To Date Record:
                              "System" #1: 1-1
                              "System" #2: 1-0

                              Combined "System" Record: 2-1
                              Good Luck Today Everyone.
                              Comment
                              • southpaw74
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-21-09
                                • 7104

                                #85
                                florida state is at -5 now!! is gtech the play?
                                Comment
                                • snapstick
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 08-18-09
                                  • 3861

                                  #86
                                  You needed o get on it yesterday when i posted it. Play the -5 or buy down, up to you.
                                  Comment
                                  • DuncHen22
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-20-09
                                    • 1079

                                    #87
                                    Do any unranked teams who upset a ranked team fit into system 2 even if they weren't favored at the start? I would think they should because their mental state would still be the same.

                                    What I'm saying is you should look into fading any unranked team that beats a ranked team. So you should watch for Oklahoma State, Alabama, UConn, and Georgia to lose their next game.

                                    By the way, I knew OK State was going to beat Kansas State since Kansas State had just upset Texas. Even though they are a ranked team, it still is a huge mental strain to top the number 1 team and thus were ripe for a letdown.
                                    Comment
                                    • snapstick
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 08-18-09
                                      • 3861

                                      #88
                                      Thats not part of the system but feel free to play those games.
                                      Comment
                                      • DuncHen22
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-20-09
                                        • 1079

                                        #89
                                        Damn, Seminoles missed it by 1 point. I'd still say this system is looking good! I assume Florida State will still fit into System 2 in their next game as they still upset a ranked team. They're next game is at Duke on the 27th. Seton Hall is at South Florida on the 28th.
                                        Comment
                                        • Hawk007
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 2492

                                          #90
                                          Top 25 opening at a pk-3' on the road
                                          NCAA Basketball
                                          '08-'09 (12-8) 60%
                                          '09-'10 (63-46) 58%
                                          WNBA
                                          '10 (45-29) 64%
                                          CFL
                                          '10 (20-18)
                                          NCAAF
                                          '10 (16-7)
                                          Comment
                                          • Hawk007
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-26-09
                                            • 2492

                                            #91
                                            One other thing Snap,

                                            I noticed your system says, "if they win AND cover the spread. What if the unranked home team wins the game but don't cover the spread? I would think these teams would fit the same criteria as stated earlier, a little bit spent after a big win and would still suffer a letdown as they won the game, which is all that matters to the team. Any stats that say these should be a no play?
                                            NCAA Basketball
                                            '08-'09 (12-8) 60%
                                            '09-'10 (63-46) 58%
                                            WNBA
                                            '10 (45-29) 64%
                                            CFL
                                            '10 (20-18)
                                            NCAAF
                                            '10 (16-7)
                                            Comment
                                            • DuncHen22
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-20-09
                                              • 1079

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by Hawk007
                                              One other thing Snap, I noticed your system says, "if they win AND cover the spread. What if the unranked home team wins the game but don't cover the spread? I would think these teams would fit the same criteria as stated earlier, a little bit spent after a big win and would still suffer a letdown as they won the game, which is all that matters to the team. Any stats that say these should be a no play?
                                              That's what I said too. The teams and players don't care about the spread, they just care about the "W", so a team who wins by 2 won't care in the least that they missed the 3 pt spread, they're just happy they won.
                                              Comment
                                              • peterpan19
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-02-08
                                                • 3377

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by snapstick
                                                Have a record from last season for System #1 (41-22) and System #2 (27-14) but thats it and thats from someone in the handicapping community and i cant post all the plays to prove it. Thats why i didnt post it becaue i knew some out there would question the record. Just last years resultts is all i can provide but was told it has hit around 60% for the last few years.

                                                so you would have made around 28 units last year... I might look at the games so far this season... and lets what I can find...
                                                Comment
                                                • ludger
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-17-10
                                                  • 284

                                                  #94
                                                  I will follow you thread closely
                                                  Comment
                                                  • snapstick
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 08-18-09
                                                    • 3861

                                                    #95
                                                    System 2 states if they win and cover the spread they are a system 2 play. I will not play fade F.S. because based on the rules they didnt cover the spread. I understand what you are saying. I will do a little more research into System 2 and make a thread decision regarding that.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • snapstick
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 08-18-09
                                                      • 3861

                                                      #96
                                                      No Plays Today!

                                                      Year To Date Record:
                                                      "System" #1: 2-2
                                                      "System" #2: 1-0

                                                      Combined "System" Record: 3-2
                                                      Comment
                                                      • peterpan19
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-02-08
                                                        • 3377

                                                        #97
                                                        ok I looked at this season combined they went 26-21
                                                        system 1 went 19-11
                                                        system 2 7-10 2 pending
                                                        Comment
                                                        • snapstick
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 08-18-09
                                                          • 3861

                                                          #98
                                                          What does everyone think about playing "System" #1 plays on the Money Line? The record would be 4-0 in "System" #1 if we played the money line. Just an idea.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • snapstick
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 08-18-09
                                                            • 3861

                                                            #99
                                                            If we did it that way then a team like Florida State WOULD be a play in their next game because as it was said by others that why should they have to cover the spread to be a play in "System" #2.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • snapstick
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 08-18-09
                                                              • 3861

                                                              #100
                                                              Would anyone be opposed to changing the record and upcomming plays to what i said in post 98? Every system can be changed a little.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Big Dave's Picks
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 01-21-10
                                                                • 478

                                                                #101
                                                                I follow where you are going with this Snap and I think its a logical idea. I never really thought about including the moneyline in to System 1. But, thats why you make the big bucks and I only dream of it,lol. Also, the money line will never be a pick. Did you come up with anything for tonight yet Snap, just curious. BOL sir and thanks for the good work.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • snapstick
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 08-18-09
                                                                  • 3861

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Dave the ML wagers for System #1 will be betting on Favs so it wouldnt be big money. System 2 would more than likely be ML on the dogs.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • snapstick
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 08-18-09
                                                                    • 3861

                                                                    #103
                                                                    I think i will do both and track both. What does everyone think. Track spread records and ML records.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Big Dave's Picks
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 01-21-10
                                                                      • 478

                                                                      #104
                                                                      I think its a great idea. I know it wouldn't be big money for sys.#1 but playing it back with sys.#2 could be so I'm in. Good work sir.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • snapstick
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 08-18-09
                                                                        • 3861

                                                                        #105
                                                                        ok..I will update the records for the ML also a little later
                                                                        Comment
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