Big East, Big 12 top conference ATS ranks
With Kansas and Texas ranked 1-2 in the latest polls, it is no surprise at all to see the Big 12 rated near the top of the conference ranks. And with its 16-team depth and solid programs such as Villanova, West Virginia and Syracuse, we expect the Big East among the leaders. It's also no shock to see the Pac-10 down near the bottom of the conferences, with the UCLA Bruins' fall from grace a big reason why.
We’ve just begun conference play in the 2009-10 NCAA men’s basketball season. For many of the 347 teams in Division I, that means you’ll soon have to wait until March to get another crack at supporting them. But the vast majority will continue to draw action all year long.
Why March? Except for select dates here and there, that’s when the next round of non-conference games will occur, during the national tournaments. This is when true hoops aficionados make their biggest money. That’s because they paid attention in November and December; those results tell us something about what to expect further down the road.
So without further ado, let’s add up the ATS numbers as of press time and see which conferences have been paying out. I should point out that the Patriot League has been excluded from the list because the Colgate Raiders (2-1-1 ATS) are the only team from there to have drawn any betting odds.
Also, the only independent team this year with any action has been the North Carolina Central Eagles (the alma mater of former Boston Celtics great Sam Jones) at a very healthy 4-1 ATS.
Let’s start by pulling out the conferences with minimal action and giving them their own rankings, in order of winning percentage.
1. Atlantic Sun 3-1 ATS
2. Southland 10-7
3. SWAC 4-3
4. Great West 5-4
5. America East 8-7
6. Big South 3-3
7. Summit 3-5
8. MEAC 3-11
9. Northeast 2-8
As you can see, not a lot of money here – unless you were fading the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, where the Winston-Salem Rams and the Florida A&M Rattlers each went 0-2 ATS. The MEAC ranks No. 30 out of the 33 conferences (including the independents as a group) in efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s stats; this is a conference of historically black universities, while the fade-friendly No. 29 Northeast is filled with tiny private and Catholic programs like the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (0-3 ATS) and the Robert Morris Colonials (1-3 ATS). Limited enrolment means limited talent.
Now let’s move on to the big boys, the six major conferences and the assorted mid-major and low major representatives we’ve all come to know and love. We keep telling you that’s where the money is – how has that rule of thumb held up this year?
1. Mountain West 31-17-1 ATS
2. Big East 48-33-1
3. Big 12 37-26-1
4. Big West 26-20-3
5. Ivy League 19-17
6. ACC 39-35
7. Southern 35-32-3
8. Atlantic-10 39-36-1
9. MAAC 29-27
10. Conference USA 30-28
11. West Coast 25-25
11. MVC 25-25-2
13. Ohio Valley 26-28-3
14. CAA 33-36-3
15. WAC 20-22-1
16. Big Sky 24-27-1
17. Horizon League 29-34-2
18. Pacific-10 24-29-3
19. Big Ten 33-41-3
20. Sun Belt 26-33-3
21. SEC 27-37-1
22. MAC 25-35-1
Things look pretty good out in the Rockies. The MWC ranks No. 8 among the conferences in efficiency, behind only the six majors and the C-USA. The team with the most pull right now is the New Mexico Lobos at 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS, while the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels are also undefeated at 7-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
And you’ll find the Colorado State Rams doing some damage at the pay window at 5-1 ATS. But none of these teams has had a particularly tough non-con schedule, so that takes some of the starch out of their usefulness come March.
Looking at the major conferences, the potent Big East and Big 12 are exceeding preseason expectations, while the Pac-10 has taken its predictable tumble down the ATS standings – although their biggest culprit has been the Washington Huskies at 6-1 SU and 1-5 ATS.
The Huskies are considered one of the favorites to take the Pac-10 this year, with the California Golden Bears (5-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) also in the mix. This was supposed to be all about fading the USC Trojans (2-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) and the UCLA Bruins (2-5 SU, 2-3 ATS), which has indeed been the right thing to do thus far.
However, the Bruins have been so bad that the lines have already adjusted, and UCLA has covered two of its last three. Sometimes you just can’t win for losing.
With Kansas and Texas ranked 1-2 in the latest polls, it is no surprise at all to see the Big 12 rated near the top of the conference ranks. And with its 16-team depth and solid programs such as Villanova, West Virginia and Syracuse, we expect the Big East among the leaders. It's also no shock to see the Pac-10 down near the bottom of the conferences, with the UCLA Bruins' fall from grace a big reason why.
We’ve just begun conference play in the 2009-10 NCAA men’s basketball season. For many of the 347 teams in Division I, that means you’ll soon have to wait until March to get another crack at supporting them. But the vast majority will continue to draw action all year long.
Why March? Except for select dates here and there, that’s when the next round of non-conference games will occur, during the national tournaments. This is when true hoops aficionados make their biggest money. That’s because they paid attention in November and December; those results tell us something about what to expect further down the road.
So without further ado, let’s add up the ATS numbers as of press time and see which conferences have been paying out. I should point out that the Patriot League has been excluded from the list because the Colgate Raiders (2-1-1 ATS) are the only team from there to have drawn any betting odds.
Also, the only independent team this year with any action has been the North Carolina Central Eagles (the alma mater of former Boston Celtics great Sam Jones) at a very healthy 4-1 ATS.
Let’s start by pulling out the conferences with minimal action and giving them their own rankings, in order of winning percentage.
1. Atlantic Sun 3-1 ATS
2. Southland 10-7
3. SWAC 4-3
4. Great West 5-4
5. America East 8-7
6. Big South 3-3
7. Summit 3-5
8. MEAC 3-11
9. Northeast 2-8
As you can see, not a lot of money here – unless you were fading the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, where the Winston-Salem Rams and the Florida A&M Rattlers each went 0-2 ATS. The MEAC ranks No. 30 out of the 33 conferences (including the independents as a group) in efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s stats; this is a conference of historically black universities, while the fade-friendly No. 29 Northeast is filled with tiny private and Catholic programs like the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (0-3 ATS) and the Robert Morris Colonials (1-3 ATS). Limited enrolment means limited talent.
Now let’s move on to the big boys, the six major conferences and the assorted mid-major and low major representatives we’ve all come to know and love. We keep telling you that’s where the money is – how has that rule of thumb held up this year?
1. Mountain West 31-17-1 ATS
2. Big East 48-33-1
3. Big 12 37-26-1
4. Big West 26-20-3
5. Ivy League 19-17
6. ACC 39-35
7. Southern 35-32-3
8. Atlantic-10 39-36-1
9. MAAC 29-27
10. Conference USA 30-28
11. West Coast 25-25
11. MVC 25-25-2
13. Ohio Valley 26-28-3
14. CAA 33-36-3
15. WAC 20-22-1
16. Big Sky 24-27-1
17. Horizon League 29-34-2
18. Pacific-10 24-29-3
19. Big Ten 33-41-3
20. Sun Belt 26-33-3
21. SEC 27-37-1
22. MAC 25-35-1
Things look pretty good out in the Rockies. The MWC ranks No. 8 among the conferences in efficiency, behind only the six majors and the C-USA. The team with the most pull right now is the New Mexico Lobos at 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS, while the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels are also undefeated at 7-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
And you’ll find the Colorado State Rams doing some damage at the pay window at 5-1 ATS. But none of these teams has had a particularly tough non-con schedule, so that takes some of the starch out of their usefulness come March.
Looking at the major conferences, the potent Big East and Big 12 are exceeding preseason expectations, while the Pac-10 has taken its predictable tumble down the ATS standings – although their biggest culprit has been the Washington Huskies at 6-1 SU and 1-5 ATS.
The Huskies are considered one of the favorites to take the Pac-10 this year, with the California Golden Bears (5-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) also in the mix. This was supposed to be all about fading the USC Trojans (2-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) and the UCLA Bruins (2-5 SU, 2-3 ATS), which has indeed been the right thing to do thus far.
However, the Bruins have been so bad that the lines have already adjusted, and UCLA has covered two of its last three. Sometimes you just can’t win for losing.