why would that be? you have 142, well above the 127 along with probably the highest chance of a tie possible (with a 0 spread). Where does the "makes zero sense" come into play (or into the model). Are there heuristics involved that contradict the 142 total? I always remember that HAL in 2001 stands for Heuristics and Algorithmic.
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Well... maybe I should just shut up and trust the system. UVA is an extremely unique statistical school Almost all their z-scores are below average. Their defense is extremely good... but they can't score which is rare. I looked at all the z-scores and thought... why would I ever bet the over on this game.
It predicted 72-70... score came in 72-68. CRAZY. I consulted all my UVA friends and we were all unsure why the system generated an over. I guess now we know. I will post picks later today. Good Night last night. 2-0 Spreads and Totals... 1-0 ML.
DaveComment -
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM SACRED HEART 79 STONEHILL 68 147 4.5 144.0 Away Minus F Too Close 9:00 PM UTRGV 59 GRAND CANYON 84 143 -22 154.0 Too Close Under U Comment -
turned out to be an accurate prediction. Whenever you bring the word "sense" into the situation, you've gone from stat-driven to emotion, and that puts you in league with the 99% of bettors who go that route ... and lose in the long run. Unless you can scrape a ton of 'sentiment' info from social media, can test its usefulness and add it to the model if useful, it's always best to leave emotion out of it.Last edited by jamesrav; 02-29-24, 02:01 PM.Comment -
JamesRav... You are correct...
Thank you
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
73-49 --- 59.8%
Solid... 2 Easy wins last night. Games weren't close... No bets today.
DaveComment -
. Thank you, Dave!
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AWESOME
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Feels good to watch winners roll in. I have had the best year I have ever had. With least amount of stress. How many people are still out there or did I lose a few?
I think my NBA picks are finally worth looking at... Started new trial today... I have spent at least 300 hours on the program... you would like to think ... I could get it to a profitable state.
Looking forward to Saturday's NCAAB picks...
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 03-01-24, 10:36 PM.Comment -
Today's Picks... NBA definitely tighter than it has been ... worth a look ... one bet today...
Dave
THE TEACH
2:00 PM TOWSON ST 70 UNC-WILMINGTON 75 145 -3.5 131.5 Too Close Over U 6:00 PM IUPUI 61 CLEVELAND ST 87 147 -17 147.5 Parlay ML Too Close 6:00 PM VIRGINIA 65 DUKE 74 139 -9.00 124.0 Too Close Over U 7:00 PM UCLA 62 WASHINGTON ST 73 135 -5.00 127.0 Home Minus F Too Close 8:00 PM LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 82 PORTLAND 71 153 3.50 146.0 Away Minus U Too Close 4:00 PM NC CENTRAL 76 COPPIN ST 57 134 8.00 138.0 Away Minus U Too Close 4:30 PM TEXAS A&M-COMM 81 HOUSTON CHRISTIAN 72 153 1.50 149.5 Away Minus U Too Close 4:30 PM SE LOUISIANA 62 TEXAS A&M CC 76 138 -6.50 136.0 Home Minus F Too Close Comment -
thanks man
Comment -
5-2 Last Night... not counting the ML win..
78-51
Over 60%... no college bets today.
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
I wonder how often you'll have picks now since the slates will be so small from
now on ... 60% is good, ROI% is arguably more important % ... maybe something worth keeping track of next season for transparency + seeing how your modeling hold up over a larger sample sizeComment -
Tonights bets
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 8:00 PM NEW ORLEANS 62 TEXAS A&M CC 81 143 -14 155.5 Too Close Under U Comment -
Under 155.5 ... 62 total at halftime.
DaveComment -
Easy win last night. My buddy wants me to loosen it up to pick more games... I am torn... it is winning consistently so I don't want to mess with it, but maybe there are more opportunities out there. In addition, I am trying to fix NBA... it seems like that season is a tale of two seasons. Before All-Star break and after All-Star break... has anyone experienced this before. Defensively, teams start to show up the second have of the season. Is that true? Anyone have an opinion on either topic?
DaveComment -
Decided against my better judgement... I loosened up the model. However, you can still distinguish between types of bets. So if you only want to bet the ones that are more certain than you can do that. L stands for Looser Version... T stands for Tighter. F stands for Filtered... I might just change it to a star rating.
Anyway.. tonight would have been boring but it is producing bets with the loser version.
Good Luck
Dave
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM LIBERTY 76 MIDDLE TENN ST 63 140 5.5 136.0 Away Minus U L Too Close 7:00 PM OHIO U 85 BUFFALO 65 151 10.5 150.5 Away Minus U L Too Close 7:00 PM VIRGINIA TECH 81 LOUISVILLE 68 149 7.5 152.0 Too Close Under U L 7:00 PM IUPUI 60 CLEVELAND ST 86 146 -16.5 145.0 Parlay ML Too Close 9:00 PM DAYTON 81 SAINT LOUIS 69 149 9 152.5 Too Close Under U L 9:00 PM AUBURN 82 MISSOURI 63 145 12 149.5 Too Close Under U L 9:00 PM KANSAS ST 65 KANSAS 75 139 -11 143.0 Too Close Under U L 9:00 PM GEORGIA TECH 66 WAKE FOREST 81 147 -13.5 151.0 Too Close Under U L Last edited by usma1992; 03-05-24, 01:16 PM.Comment -
So you normally would not play any of these games. None are filtered. The lines are definately tighter and much less room to produce winning plays.
Are there ones that seem stronger to you?
I like the under Louisville- VTech a little more than the other plays but its not a strong play that I would play for alot.Comment -
why doesn't he just bet more ? he should make sure he's at the max bet size for the situation. Interesting simple article on Kelly at this link, a 60% win chance (your current %) would result in a bet of 20% of bankroll. A 53% chance = 6%. Not sure I'd go to 20% based on a small sample size, but you get the idea.
It all comes down to confidence in the predictions of the model. I saw an interview with the Head of Risk at Circa and he admitted his lines sometimes are just a "number that comes into my head". So beating the Vegas opening line might not be as tough as I thought. But beating the closing line is a different story.
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The only game that I would bet is the Cleveland State... ML.... it will pay about 5% and has a 1% chance of losing by my metrics. The only time that a Parlay ML line has lost under my recent metrics are when it was a rivalry game. I don't think this is rivalry game.
I know 5% doesn't seem worth the return... but better than Wall Street. Kelly's formula need to be slightly adjusted... 20% obviously not applicable to gambling... since anything can happen... in addition... I don't always know the probability that a bet will win. I have past data but really only about 4K games.
I will post the version that includes both bets and let you conclude.
DaveLast edited by usma1992; 03-05-24, 01:22 PM.Comment -
20% is quite high, but a coin with a 60% chance of coming up heads (and you as the bettor get to take heads) would in theory be optimally bet at 20%. I know most bettors use fractional Kelly, meaning more cautious and lower amounts. For sports betting, one must take into account the vig, since in the coin flip example at 53%, it's still quite profitable to bet, whereas a model at 53% success is break-even. Overcoming that fear of losing six 10% bankroll bets in a row is very hard. It all comes down to what the true win percentage will be in the long run.Comment -
Don't always have to go fully Kelly anyways - can just use it as a gauge and go half or quarter Kelly. I don't want to deal with all of that so I just stick to a 1-5% spread lolComment -
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:30 PM S INDIANA 66 TENNESSEE ST 70 136 -3.5 143.5 Too Close Under U L 9:00 PM VANDERBILT 65 KENTUCKY 92 157 -17.5 161.5 Parlay ML Too Close Comment -
So I reached a compromise with myself on loosening vs. tightening... I will proceed the next few weeks with the loosened formula to generate more bets... Today's loosening only added a few more bets. I looked at last Saturday... and if I had loosened it ... I would have been 10-2 instead ... I think I was 8-5. I am battling internally... because I want to produce winning bets... but if I can produce any bets... the system is worthless.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:30 PM S INDIANA 66 TENNESSEE ST 70 136 -3.5 143.5 Too Close Under U L 9:00 PM VANDERBILT 65 KENTUCKY 92 157 -17.5 161.5 Parlay ML Under U L 7:00 PM LONG ISLAND 60 MERRIMACK 73 134 -15 140.0 Too Close Under U L Comment -
Again, you will have to pick a system, track and grade wagers for the system, and see the results over at least a 500 wager sample size. The Win / Loss will ALWAYS vary no matter what. Track ROI. 10 won $100 wagers on -300 favorites is different than 10 won $100 wagers on spreads / totalsLast edited by Neek762; 03-07-24, 11:49 AM.Comment -
All the bets I am tracking and posting my results for are Spreads and Totals which are essentially -110 on all of them. I DO NOT INCLUDE MONEYLINE BETS in my total wins and losses... so ROI isn't hard to calculate.
My win loss totals are on -110 bets.
DaveComment -
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:00 PM UAB 73 TEMPLE 74 147 2.5 142.0 Home Plus U L Too Close 8:00 PM UTAH VALLEY ST 65 TARLETON ST 72 137 -6.5 140.5 Too Close Under U L 7:30 PM COPPIN ST 64 MORGAN ST 75 138 -9 142.0 Too Close Under U L 7:30 PM S CAROLINA ST 64 NC CENTRAL 75 140 -7.5 143.5 Too Close Under U L Comment -
Been following closely, and I know that the U stands for unfiltered. What does the U means, as ion UL?Comment -
So I have taken my program... from a very tight filter to loosening once then loosening again... so I have essentially three types of bets.
Filtered if you see an F. That is my tightest bet with the most restrictions. If you check over the course of the last several weeks there have been 1 or 2 at the most. Vegas has tightened their odds. So I opened it up on Jan 25th for some more picks.
If you see a T at the end that means it is a 4 Star Pick that means it is Unfiltered but fairly Tight. Those picks are drying up also, so I launched a third version which has done surprisingly well lately.
If it ends in an L ... they are my loosest picks. The Temple spread has moved huge against me so I suspect that is a loss... but we will see. Hope that explains... I may get to the point I just use star ratings.
DaveComment -
The UAB- Temple line has moved from -2.5 to -8.
Temple must have starters out of this game to have the line move this much.Comment -
Thank you very much, Dave. My guess was L was for "lean," but Loose is clearly most appropriate. Will proceed as suggested.Comment -
Something... definitely is up with the Temple game... Do you think that's the reason? Starters missing... that is a monster move.
DaveComment -
Sorry... thought I posted... I was scrambling to pick up my son from college. I came up with a rating scheme so the bets are easier to read. 5* best bet 4* next then of course 3*. Bet accordingly. Had a rare 5* bet today but the game is already over sorry. I had to place my bet through a bookie because we can't bet Virginia Teams. Hope ratings help...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 2:00 PM WM & MARY 78 N CAROLINA A&T 67 145 5 138.0 Away Minus 5* Too Close 11:30 PM LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 83 PORTLAND 70 153 5.5 143.5 Away Minus 3* Too Close Comment -
Tomorrow's Games... All I can say is wow... I like the Western Carolina bet...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 12:00 PM ARKANSAS 69 ALABAMA 89 157 -14.5 174.0 Too Close Under 4* 3:00 PM UTAH TECH 65 SF AUSTIN ST 76 140 -10 144.0 Too Close Under 3* 4:00 PM KANSAS 61 HOUSTON 76 137 -8 137.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close 4:30 PM FLORIDA 86 VANDERBILT 66 152 10 151.0 Away Minus 3* Too Close 5:30 PM BOSTON COLLEGE 82 LOUISVILLE 70 152 3.5 151.0 Away Minus 4* Too Close 6:00 PM CAL DAVIS 72 LONG BEACH ST 72 144 -1.5 147.5 Too Close Under 3* 8:30 PM MISSOURI 70 LSU 77 146 -7.50 151.0 Too Close Under 3* 8:30 PM FURMAN 74 W CAROLINA 79 153 1.00 147.5 Home Plus 4* Too Close 9:00 PM OKLAHOMA ST 65 BYU 85 149 -13.50 152.5 Too Close Under 3* 4:00 PM ARK-PINE BLUFF 76 ALCORN ST 77 153 -8.00 155.0 Away Plus 3* Too Close Comment -
This is awesome! Thank you for the ratings and projected scores and for putting them up early!Comment
